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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsMy Prediction: Trump Will Declare National Emergency On Tuesday Night
Trump is planning the prime time address to the nation. This is going to be a spectacle. Trump will, I predict, end the shutdown and indicate to Mitch McConnell that he will sign the CR that passed the House and was approve by the Senate just a month ago. Then, Trump will declare a national emergency and order the defense department to allocate $5.6 billion out of its budget for border security, including beginning the building of the wall. Thursday, Trump will tour the Southern Border to demonstrate the importance of his actions.
This is like a dictatorial takeover.
smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)Can he really do that?
If he does, it is the death of the republican party.
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)But Trump+McConnell+5 Justices constitute a majority.
smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)I can't believe we have been taken hostage by this madman and his enablers.
brooklynite
(94,503 posts)smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)I am not quite as confident as you are, but I hope you are right.
NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)Dems in Congress or the ACLU will file a lawsuit. if it goes to SCOTUS, will sane conservative John Roberts rule with Ginsburg, Breyer, Sotomayor and Kagan, or with Bart O'Kavanaugh, Alito, Gorusch and Thomas?
smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)I really, really hate him.
NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)it will hopefully help in the long run as we pointed out many weaknesses in our democracy
smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)We won't survive the next time because the next time that person is likely to be smarter and more competent at achieving his goal at destroying our democracy. Nobody could possibly be any more of a idiot than Trump.
customerserviceguy
(25,183 posts)Historically, US Presidents get a lot of leeway from the courts in deciding what is in the national security interest. The Korematsu case in 1944 sanctioned the internment of US citizens of Japanese ancestry in the name of this cause.
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)whether said declaration is give the full weight of law and authority is what will be ultimately decided by the Supremes.
smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)qazplm135
(7,447 posts)he wouldn't be the first President to try to illegally expand his power and he won't be the last.
We have two other branches of government for a reason.
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)to conspire with a hostile foreign country to interfere in America's democracy, to pay off people w/bad Trump stories with campaign money, and a list of other things.
Since when did legalities stop Trump? The question is...can anyone stop him? WILL anyone stop him?
niyad
(113,265 posts)ADX
(1,622 posts)...I wouldn't put it past him to try that shit and I most certainly wouldn't be the least surprised if he did. Whatever happens, you're right that it's going to be a spectacle of epic proportions...
lark
(23,094 posts)I will turn on MSNBC soon as it's over and my blood pressure won't be as affected as if I listened to the orange shitgibbon. I also believe he will declare a national emergency, but my fear is this will expand way beyond a wall. He's been on a tear about the media all weekend, bet he'll institute some new rule that presidents can't be indicted or convicted for any illegal actions before or after they become president and who knows what other fuckery he'd include. Then it's a race to the courts and the scary thing is SCOTUS could easily facilitate the destruction of our constitutional rights and there's only one rw ass who could prevent this and that's Roberts. He's the ass that personally brought us Citizens United. He' made constitutional noises before and stood against rw wishes, but this will be the big one and what will he do with it? Our future is hanging by a slender thread folks.
Joe941
(2,848 posts)RKP5637
(67,104 posts)not in fact, martial law. ... possibly ...
Sneederbunk
(14,290 posts)regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)The Senate passed such a CR but then, after Trump balked, the House amended it to include wall funding. Taking it back to its original form cant simply be undone by fiat since were in a new Congress, a completely new CR would have to be drawn up. And I get the feeling that, under the circumstances. the new Democratic-controlled House wont pass such a bill without a provision preventing Trump from spending any money, even by reallocation, for his wall.
MissB
(15,805 posts)I doubt I couldve explained that quite as succinctly!
louis c
(8,652 posts)...the Senate just needs to pass the current Democratic House bill (which was originally the Senate bill from the previous Congress).
Trump will indicate tomorrow night that he will sine it and simultaneously declare a state of emergency and use existing Defense Dept. funds to start erecting the wall.
There will undoubtedly be a court challenge, but I am only predicting tomorrow. Let's see how close I come.
NutmegYankee
(16,199 posts)The Senate bill was for two months and screwed federal workers out of a pay raise. The House bill gives the raise and is for the rest of the fiscal year.
louis c
(8,652 posts)<snip>What were asking the Republicans in the Senate to do is to take yes for an answer. We are sending them back exactly, word for word, what they have passed, Pelosi said. Why would they not do that? Is it because the president wont sign it? Did they not hear about the coequal branch of government, and that we the Congress send the president legislation and he can choose to sign or not?<snip>
Link:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/house-democrats-prepare-vote-to-reopen-government-as-cracks-appear-in-gop-opposition/2019/01/03/24151490-0f96-11e9-8938-5898adc28fa2_story.html?utm_term=.aa9720c84627
NutmegYankee
(16,199 posts)louis c
(8,652 posts)...being a loyal Democrat and being able to stay on message.
NutmegYankee
(16,199 posts)The bills came out of the Senate appropriations committee, but never got a floor vote. They were therefore never passed by the Senate. McConnell substituted a 2 month CR and passed that. It didn't have a raise for Federal Workers.
Speaker Pelosi's bill did have a raise and the first package was for the entire fiscal year for all departments but Homeland Security. The Second bill was a CR for Homeland Security.
FACT!
louis c
(8,652 posts)But, I wouldn't equate Nancy Pelosi with Donald Trump. At least, not on this site.
NutmegYankee
(16,199 posts)I believe she was just mistaken or making a political point without engaging in the detailed back story. But that is in no way comparable.
louis c
(8,652 posts)This was what I was referring to.
Nancy and I stand by our words.
onenote
(42,699 posts)The bill that passed the Senate by voice vote on December 19 would have kept the government open until February 8. On January 3, the House passed two bills. One would fund all of the government except DHS through September. The second one would keep DHS open through February 8.
So it may well be that with respect to DHS, the "essence" of the bill passed by the Senate and the bills passed by the House are the same. But with respect to the rest of the government, they are not the same, since the Senate bill only would have kept the government open through February 8 while the House bill keeps the government open through September.
louis c
(8,652 posts)...I'm sticking with what Nancy Pelosi says.
The House Bill in 2019 is "exactly" the same as the Senate bill in 2018 in all major respects. There may be incidental differences and some of the CR's may have passed only the committees, but I understand what the Speaker is saying and to parse words is only detrimental to our side. The 2018 Senate bill is dead, because Congress expired on Jan.3. So, no shittin' the Senate bill is not the House bill.
The Speaker is referring to the fact that the funding for border security is the same and the CR is essentially the same. The President unilaterally canceled the pay raise for government employees. That was not eliminated in the 2018 Senate bill.
I guess some Democrats like to parse words to contradict our own leaders. No wonder Democrats lose close elections, too many Democrats like to give ammunition to the enemy.
NutmegYankee
(16,199 posts)And tried to accuse me of not being a Democrat because I pointed out something that you finally conceded was true.
The bills aren't identical, though your point that the basic elements in each bill are there is true. The key is Speaker Pelosi's bill is better than that passed by the Senate.
demmiblue
(36,841 posts)Some people just can't admit when they are wrong. A terrible quality in a person, imo.
louis c
(8,652 posts)...there are enough Republicans to do that.
And please, stop with self-righteous attitude, when all you're really doing is nit-picking.
onenote
(42,699 posts)will it still be nit-picking when, as we should, the Democrats reject that offer?
NutmegYankee
(16,199 posts)That's healthy for a Democracy. Oh, and I don't consider it a nit-pick - I am intensely following the raise and don't want McConnell's bill to come back since it fucks the Civil Service.
demmiblue
(36,841 posts)and I am pretty sure most here don't, either.
We all still support our party and our Speaker.
The attacks on you are bizarre.
NutmegYankee
(16,199 posts)It was surreal.
coeur_de_lion
(3,676 posts)We are fighting the republicans not each other.
Now everybody do a group hug. Pronto.
louis c
(8,652 posts)She may have said "the bills are the same, word for word" and meant in the essential parts of the bill. Was every word actually the same, of course not. The bills don't have to be the exact same, because the Senate bill has already died., as it was introduced in a prior Congress.
What bothers me is that Democrats here at DU are quibbling about a minor point, which is of no consequence, as if they were blogging on some right wing site in an effort to discredit Speaker Pelosi.
That's pathetic.
demmiblue
(36,841 posts)1. No one is trying to discredit Speaker Pelosi (in fact, someone is complimentary of Speaker Pelosi: "The key is Speaker Pelosi's bill is better than that passed by the Senate." ).
2. Someone (actually, more than one) is trying to be factual, which is the right thing to do (gasp, facts actually do matter).
3. And there is only one person here attacking Democrats. I wonder who that is? And, yes, it is entirely pathetic.
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)That's what I find self-righteous.
louis c
(8,652 posts)Ohiogal
(31,979 posts)a fake military uniform with fake medals and gold epaulets and mirrored aviator sunglasses?
2naSalit
(86,564 posts)Fullduplexxx
(7,858 posts)He cant do this
But if the dod can spare 5 billion for trump they can spare it yearly for other things
louis c
(8,652 posts)...but he certainly can if he prevails in the courts.
Freethinker65
(10,010 posts)Trump will use the air time to repeat untruths and blame everything on the Democrats.
He will tout a perfectly honed expanding economy, buoyed by his outstanding negotiating and deal making. He will take credit for lowered gas prices and the stock market when it was going up. He will claim to have defeated ISIS. He will say he brought football, coal, and jobs back to America. He will say Elizabeth Warren lacks stamina and is low energy and that AOC isn"t very bright unlike Ivanka who could run the country almost as well as he does. He will claim that true patriots are telling him non-stop "Sir, please continue doing what you are doing because we understand sacrifice is necessary to save us from evil".
He will say anything bad that happens from now on is because the evil Democrats retook the House of Representatives. He will say he has the power to dissolve the legislature and just might do it, but has not decided yet, that he alone has all of the answers to the nation's woes, and looks forward to further talks with NK, Russia, and China now that we are once again respected in the world.
Trump will opine that although he has the power to declare a national emergency to get the money (now magically increased in amount from 5 billion, perhaps 8 to 12 billion?) to build the much needed wall to stop the scary hispanic people taking America's tax money, jobs, women, and killing our youth with their diseases and illegal drugs, that he will wait a bit longer for Pelosi and Schumer to do the right thing.
Then he will go off tangent to how wonderful he and his family are, and call some people names, and talk about witch hunts and the fake media.
Fade to black.
Talking heads and pundits will say they are at a loss for words but will continue to repeat Trump's garbage.
maryellen99
(3,788 posts)Here is how the SCOTUS has described the circumstances when "martial law" might be declared:
"If, in foreign invasion or civil war, the courts are actually closed, and it is impossible to administer criminal justice according to law, then, on the theatre of active military operations, where war really prevails, there is a necessity to furnish a substitute for the civil authority, thus overthrown, to preserve the safety of the army and society; and as no power is left but the military, it is allowed to govern by martial rule until the laws can have their free course. As necessity creates the rule, so it limits its duration; for, if this government is continued after the courts are reinstated, it is a gross usurpation of power. Martial rule can never exist where the courts are open, and in the proper and unobstructed exercise of their jurisdiction. It is also confined to the locality of actual war."
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)make it sound like his wall will profoundly help the USA.
I'm pretty sure, most of us will call him an ignorant MFer, and a bunch of GOPers will too.
Stuart G
(38,419 posts)Why? There isn't one. That is a lie. Most of the country will not buy it. and in my opinion, (yes it is an opinion) ................................................................
Humpty Trumpty will fall off of the wall..
And all of his horses and men..
Won't be able to put...
Trumpty together again......................
While that poem ain't no gud, ...It is a lot better than Donald Trump.
If Trump does this, he will be the price.
TomCADem
(17,387 posts)...placing the interest of the people ahead of their own partisan interests. In a Limbaugh/Coulter world, they see the threat of non-white people as an emergency.
WePurrsevere
(24,259 posts)to build and to maintain. Congress holds the purse strings and they should refuse to give him even one dime for this ridiculous over hyped nonsense.
The Pentagon isn't going to be pleased if he takes it out of their budget. He'd be taking money needed by the military, perhaps veterans too, and shorting them for a potential REAL emergency.
sarcasmo
(23,968 posts)WePurrsevere
(24,259 posts)sarcasmo
(23,968 posts)Miles Archer
(18,837 posts)Admitting that he was just speculating, Columbus wrote that Trump may announce a national emergency thus unlocking statutes that some argue allow some wall-building.
The move would kick the fights to federal courts, allowing him to reopen government while saving face.
If he later loses in court hell have a new scapegoat, the former DOJ appointee noted.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/heres-real-reason-trump-addressing-nation-border-wall-former-doj-lawyer/
First Speaker
(4,858 posts)...something that, indeed, will be fairly described as "dictatorial". He will at least make an attempt to do so. Is there anyone here who think he won't, especially to save his own skin? I've taken it for granted ever since his "election". This is probably as good a chance to do so, in his eyes, as anything. Whether he does or doesn't--this time--I wouldn't exactly die of shock should it happen.
Fiendish Thingy
(15,585 posts)H2O Man
(73,536 posts)I think you may well be correct. In both November and December, I noted that it was likely that Trump would try to create a "national emergency" in early 2019. While I did not anticipate that he would attempt to use this, it is hardly a surprise.
Desperate people try desperate things. It will not work to his benefit.
Doodley
(9,088 posts)He has no limits. He must win, even if it destroys himself.
RestoreAmerica2020
(3,435 posts)AJT
(5,240 posts)"border security" or I will declare a national emergency on the grounds of national security. Then he will give a deadline.
demmiblue
(36,841 posts)louis c
(8,652 posts)Last edited Mon Jan 14, 2019, 07:09 AM - Edit history (1)
...it reminds me of a story when I took a flight from Boston to Ft. Lauderdale. The passenger next to me was scared shit. He was sure we were going to crash. I assured him, "we'll land on time, safe and sound." We landed 15 minutes late, but safe as church mice. He turned to me and said, "we're 15 minutes late. I knew you didn't know what you were talking about."
Give it time, friend. Trump may make the emergency declaration later than I predicted, but I'm not wrong about the substance of my prediction yet.