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NewJeffCT

(56,827 posts)
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 01:36 PM Jan 2019

Math says to me that Sanders has a shot at winning the nomination

as I explained in a reply in another thread. Please note, in 2016, I said that Sanders was essentially mathematically eliminated after the first Super Tuesday, so I'm not promoting Sanders, but it's naive to think he does not have a chance.

If Bernie retains 75% of the vote he received last time around, he has a shot. Because in 2016, almost all the other votes went to Clinton. In 2020, there are potentially 10 or more candidates that could divide up the Clinton vote and the 25% of Sanders voters that defect to other candidates.

Clinton received a total of 16.85 million votes
Bernie received a total of 13.17 million votes
Total is 30.02 million votes

In 2020, Say Bernie gets 9.88 million, or 75% of what he received in 2016

That leaves 20.14 million for the remaining candidates
1) Joe Biden
2) Kamala Harris
3) Elizabeth Warren
4) Sherrod Brown
5) Cory Booker
6) Beto O'Rourke
7) Kirsten Gillebrand
8) Tulsi Gabbard
9) Pete Buttigieg
10) Julian Castro
11) Eric Garcetti
12) John Hickenlooper

and a few more that I'm probably missing

Right now, maybe Biden could get 50% of that remaining 20 million, but I doubt anybody else would come close if Biden decides not to run for president. Without Biden, the others will likely be fighting to get 20-30% in the early primaries and consider themselves to be in great shape.

Unless Warren (older progressives), O'Rourke (college students) and a few others can take more of Sanders' votes than just 25%, Bernie does have a path to the nomination.


236 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Math says to me that Sanders has a shot at winning the nomination (Original Post) NewJeffCT Jan 2019 OP
Tell Math to stop drinking in the middle of the day. Squinch Jan 2019 #1
... lapucelle Jan 2019 #3
lol PunkinPi Jan 2019 #5
Bwah! cwydro Jan 2019 #6
Snort!😂 we can do it Jan 2019 #15
+1 dalton99a Jan 2019 #16
LOL! Ha! NurseJackie Jan 2019 #17
Ha! mcar Jan 2019 #29
This!!! MrsCoffee Jan 2019 #46
Fixin' to have an aperitif 🍷after that one! 😆 sprinkleeninow Jan 2019 #55
Go home math, you're drunk! Initech Jan 2019 #58
... lunamagica Jan 2019 #65
There was a smear in my screen that made it look like "Meth says" ... Yikes Hekate Jan 2019 #71
I must have had something on my screen too that made me see "Meth says....".... Pachamama Jan 2019 #146
It was your brain, trying to reformat what you read into a logical sentence Clash City Rocker Feb 2019 #227
! icymist Jan 2019 #93
Okay, you owe me a keyboard NastyRiffraff Jan 2019 #96
... sheshe2 Jan 2019 #101
... betsuni Jan 2019 #122
.... ehrnst Jan 2019 #149
Too early to predict. Laurian Jan 2019 #2
My daughters and I won't caucus for him exboyfil Jan 2019 #7
I don't see him going third party and helping Republicans win. ooky Jan 2019 #18
He's too pure for us Dems & played games right into the Convention. He'll play games again... Hekate Jan 2019 #73
BERNIE IS NOT A DEMOCRAT. HE IS TRYING TO HURT THE PARTY. BERNIE VOTERS GAVE US TRUMP barbiegeek Jan 2019 #156
I do. awesomerwb1 Jan 2019 #78
Ummmm sheshe2 Jan 2019 #108
Ummmm ooky Jan 2019 #123
Okay. sheshe2 Jan 2019 #124
He explained that he didn't go 3rd party last time because of $$ and marketing ehrnst Jan 2019 #151
Which candidates will draw away his votes? And, will they stay away? NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #145
OK - so, let's say he retains HALF of his support NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #148
You've made assumptions to get to your conclusion manor321 Jan 2019 #4
I think you are correct. ooky Jan 2019 #23
Yes indeed. Mariana Jan 2019 #30
Thanks for realizing that NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #142
I think it could be even higher than 75% InAbLuEsTaTe Jan 2019 #66
... SidDithers Jan 2019 #83
+1 Power 2 the People Jan 2019 #90
It could be 200%! Or 300%! NastyRiffraff Jan 2019 #97
Right on! (n/t) corbettkroehler Jan 2019 #208
Something else says that a whole lot of those 10 million votes will be spread... TreasonousBastard Jan 2019 #8
You must stop using OLD MATH and get onboard with NEW MATH. democratisphere Jan 2019 #9
Lol ... obnoxiousdrunk Jan 2019 #10
Reality tells me he has no shot calguy Jan 2019 #11
and now he has the #metoo problem trueblue2007 Jan 2019 #57
I agree and I think many of his early supporters soured on him by the end. Chemisse Jan 2019 #88
More fun, and completely useless math... SidDithers Jan 2019 #12
I support Bernie. Whether or not he wins the primary, his voice will be valuable during the debates. earthshine Jan 2019 #13
You got that right!! InAbLuEsTaTe Jan 2019 #67
What exactly is "progressive" about encouraging anyone to smear and denigrate Democrats? NurseJackie Jan 2019 #76
He will have to cough up his tax returns to get in the debates. n/t Apollyonus Jan 2019 #89
When his delegates booed John Lewis at our last convention. GulfCoast66 Jan 2019 #105
I remember that. JL dissed Bernie first. earthshine Jan 2019 #107
You so blithely defend booing John Lewis? GulfCoast66 Jan 2019 #110
Right. This was the march that he denied Bernie's presence, yes? earthshine Jan 2019 #115
Bernie was now at the Selma March!! LOL. GulfCoast66 Jan 2019 #117
Sorry. He was at the March on Washington, not Selma. My bad. earthshine Jan 2019 #125
Please. You defended the booing of John Lewis. GulfCoast66 Jan 2019 #127
I did not defend the booing. Enough of that. earthshine Jan 2019 #130
Mitch McConnell was at the Washington march too. comradebillyboy Jan 2019 #134
Your reply does not address my post. So, your point is irrelevant. earthshine Jan 2019 #137
He didn't say that. "I never saw him. I never met him" is what he said. betsuni Jan 2019 #116
Read his/her last reply to me. GulfCoast66 Jan 2019 #118
It IS depressing. betsuni Jan 2019 #119
And John Lewis only said he never met Bernie. Because some of his delusional supporters claimed BS GulfCoast66 Jan 2019 #120
Good point about young northern liberals in the 1880s. betsuni Jan 2019 #121
I was at the convention when the sanders delegates pulled this stunt Gothmog Jan 2019 #133
Phones with cameras blanket every square yard of civilization yet you've never posted a video. Hassin Bin Sober Jan 2019 #158
Where you there? Gothmog Jan 2019 #160
Before I go chasing down some rabbit hole and read your long screed, no video? Hassin Bin Sober Jan 2019 #161
Ask your fellow sanders supporters who are JPR posters Gothmog Jan 2019 #164
That's absolutely true. NurseJackie Jan 2019 #168
Are sanders supporters getting worried? Gothmog Jan 2019 #193
Here is a video I pulled off Youtube Demsrule86 Jan 2019 #211
Doesn't anyone even read threads anymore? Hassin Bin Sober Jan 2019 #213
Time will tell Gothmog Feb 2019 #223
How about this: George II Jan 2019 #165
Nope. Hassin Bin Sober Jan 2019 #167
I was there and so were a ton of other true Democrats Gothmog Jan 2019 #170
You know the old saying...."you can lead a horse to water................" George II Jan 2019 #171
S. Bee did a good segment on this Gothmog Jan 2019 #172
That's the one I was referring to, it was hysterical (and too true) George II Jan 2019 #177
I love Sam Bee Gothmog Feb 2019 #225
Again... ehrnst Jan 2019 #174
"To the Bernie or Bust people, you're being ridiculous" Sarah Silverman at the convention. betsuni Jan 2019 #219
"This isn't about Lewis but" Hassin Bin Sober Jan 2019 #221
There was disruption and Lewis was booed. betsuni Jan 2019 #222
The cheering by delegates was because we were warned in advance about this stunt Gothmog Jan 2019 #175
Not to mention, the whole point was that Senator Sanders had fewer delegates. KitSileya Apr 2019 #235
For this thread Gothmog Jan 2019 #169
OMG .. one must be comatose not to have remembered that Apollyonus Jan 2019 #214
I was there and I was shocked when I got the text from my whip Gothmog Feb 2019 #224
Perhaps you missed this: ehrnst Jan 2019 #173
That was outside of the convention that morning Gothmog Jan 2019 #176
The booing at Marcia Fudge when she opened the convention is also on video. ehrnst Jan 2019 #178
There were so many incidents like that incident that I lost count Gothmog Jan 2019 #179
Are you still in denial about what happen at the convention? Gothmog Feb 2019 #232
Some history Gothmog Feb 2019 #233
for This thread Gothmog Mar 2019 #234
JL said he didn't see BS at the march, most likely because BS wasn't there. lapucelle Jan 2019 #155
BERNIE TOOK NRA MONEY FLUSH FROM RUSSIA JUST LIKE TRUMP barbiegeek Jan 2019 #159
THIS n/t Apollyonus Jan 2019 #215
Talk about progressives... sheshe2 Jan 2019 #112
any candidate that pulls the party to the left is valuable in the primary. Grasswire2 Jan 2019 #126
So are you ok with the booing of John Lewis Apollyonus Jan 2019 #216
Nomination for what? Most divisive? we can do it Jan 2019 #14
Kind of agree, kinda don't. Glamrock Jan 2019 #19
Bernie won't last past NH mathematically Apollyonus Jan 2019 #217
Old Towne Media still up and running? KitSileya Apr 2019 #236
Look, I supported Sen. Sanders in the last primary Bettie Jan 2019 #20
His campaign may serve as non-violent "brass knuckles" to promote progressive policy position. David__77 Jan 2019 #36
Those things would be great and I think that we should work toward them Bettie Jan 2019 #77
The Democratic candidates are progressive enough Apollyonus Jan 2019 #92
Math needs to put away the hash pipe. The Velveteen Ocelot Jan 2019 #21
I do know a lot of "Bernie" people Bettie Jan 2019 #79
Just about everybody I know supported Bernie in the primaries The Velveteen Ocelot Jan 2019 #81
The key point is that many of the candidates this year Bettie Jan 2019 #82
Put away the booze or whatever you are smoking. redstatebluegirl Jan 2019 #22
Math says to me, Donald Trump would love Bernie to run against him. Doodley Jan 2019 #24
+1 2naSalit Jan 2019 #138
I note that the "math" is based on him retaining 75% of what he had last time karynnj Jan 2019 #25
That would mean both parties are running kremlin candidates. RT can host the debates. PSPS Jan 2019 #26
He's a great favorite of their hosta and his former employees/surrogates Ninsianna Jan 2019 #42
Thanks for the chilling reminder. nt Hekate Jan 2019 #87
Math DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2019 #27
Right Glamrock Jan 2019 #33
Except . . . DarthDem Jan 2019 #54
What you said. Sheesh.....🙄 sprinkleeninow Jan 2019 #60
True true. Glamrock Jan 2019 #63
Understood DarthDem Jan 2019 #106
Oh shit that's right! Glamrock Jan 2019 #132
You Got it! DarthDem Jan 2019 #181
However NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #152
Just like in 2016, Sanders will be effectively eliminated once the South and CA vote in early March. LonePirate Jan 2019 #28
And, CA will break heavily for Kamala Harris obamanut2012 Jan 2019 #48
He will keep on trucking Apollyonus Jan 2019 #86
why are you parroting RW smears against Bernie? Grasswire2 Jan 2019 #128
Bernie's tax returns will prove me wrong Apollyonus Jan 2019 #129
your disinformation is very troubling. Grasswire2 Jan 2019 #131
Wrong. The RW loves Bernie. Tad Devine and Paul Manafort R B Garr Jan 2019 #200
K&R CentralMass Jan 2019 #31
The math tells me that he has zero chance, assuming GoCubsGo Jan 2019 #32
He can switch to Dem anytime he feels like it. Glamrock Jan 2019 #34
Get back to me when he actually switches. GoCubsGo Jan 2019 #37
Be prepared. Glamrock Jan 2019 #39
But, not likely as a Democrat, which is what this post is about. GoCubsGo Jan 2019 #41
Hope that's not true Glamrock Jan 2019 #44
And stay warm up there in Chi-town Glamrock Jan 2019 #40
I live in South Carolina. GoCubsGo Jan 2019 #43
And you're a Cubs fan? Glamrock Jan 2019 #45
I was born and raised in Chicago. GoCubsGo Jan 2019 #49
My apologies! Glamrock Jan 2019 #51
Just goes to show you can use math ro prove anything if your assumptions are Takket Jan 2019 #35
No. Perhaps you don't speak Math? Ninsianna Jan 2019 #38
Math is a big part of my daily job NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #189
LOL betsuni Jan 2019 #192
Math is a big part of how I view the world especially stats and politics. Ninsianna Feb 2019 #228
the same concept NewJeffCT Feb 2019 #229
He will not win CA. I'd say he doesn't have a snow ball's chance in hell. wasupaloopa Jan 2019 #47
I am betting Kamala Harris will take CA and most southern states obamanut2012 Jan 2019 #50
Agreed. yardwork Jan 2019 #75
And, CA and many southern states are Super Tuesday states obamanut2012 Jan 2019 #186
You mispelled "meth" LongtimeAZDem Jan 2019 #52
Not if a Dem woman runs shanti Jan 2019 #53
Is this Meth Math? sarcasmo Jan 2019 #56
Public radio runs an ad for 'Math Lab'. (?) sprinkleeninow Jan 2019 #103
no reason to believe he gets 75% qazplm135 Jan 2019 #59
I voted for Bernie in the primary last time VMA131Marine Jan 2019 #61
I think your last sentence says it all DFW Jan 2019 #62
He hasnt confirmed yet he is running AlexSFCA Jan 2019 #64
... LexVegas Jan 2019 #68
Please bernie... do what's right for your country DONT run Thekaspervote Jan 2019 #69
K&R!!!!! Ernesto Jan 2019 #80
K&R barbiegeek Jan 2019 #157
Excellent analysis. Go Bernie! Joe941 Jan 2019 #70
Is he a Democrat yet? Hekate Jan 2019 #72
No ... and he never really is a Democrat. Greywing Jan 2019 #74
Fuzzy Math? nt Apollyonus Jan 2019 #84
That's not even close to how primaries play out. MyNameGoesHere Jan 2019 #85
hope not! he is too much like trump! demigoddess Jan 2019 #91
THIS Apollyonus Jan 2019 #94
A campaign based on assuring people their problems are someone else's fault Recursion Jan 2019 #136
Sanders will not get anywhere close to what he got in 2016 standingtall Jan 2019 #95
That is possible NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #99
Actually I doubt that he retains as much support as you think, BUT he does have a chance andym Jan 2019 #98
Not gonna happen. Warren will take at least half his votes. tinrobot Jan 2019 #100
He had the support of and extensive Russian operation in 2016 delisen Jan 2019 #102
Not new math, it's NewJeffMath! FSogol Jan 2019 #104
Voted Bernie on the primaries last time FreeState Jan 2019 #109
Math must not be your strong suit. honest.abe Jan 2019 #111
Not sure about the exact math... Mike Nelson Jan 2019 #113
I see that Bernie Math is back in action. Garrett78 Jan 2019 #114
I was just about to post about that Bernie math! KitSileya Jan 2019 #135
Bernie supporter last time... sfwriter Jan 2019 #139
You are the kind of person I'm talking about in post #162. (nt) apnu Jan 2019 #163
"Like Bernie, they fled the party the second they realized they are one voice among many here..." sfwriter Jan 2019 #180
The poster is right, though -- many did flee and voted for Trump obamanut2012 Jan 2019 #187
I thought only Democrats could run as a Democrat now? What did I miss? nt allgood33 Jan 2019 #140
NewJeff, start subtracting votes for Howard Schultz, Hortensis Jan 2019 #141
I don't see him as much of a factor NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #143
Me either yet, of course. But we know Bloomberg is Hortensis Jan 2019 #144
You're making too many assumptions in your calculation Blue_Tires Jan 2019 #147
That doesn't take into account vetting that has yet to be done, especially ehrnst Jan 2019 #150
Sanders got away without releasing tax returns last time NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #153
It will be different this time after all the attention focused on DT's hidden returns ehrnst Jan 2019 #154
Do these numbers presume Bernie cats stayed in the Dem party? apnu Jan 2019 #162
O'Malley wasn't on Sanders' left in 2016 NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #191
Next year won't be the same as 2016 - both Biden and Sanders will be four years older... George II Jan 2019 #166
Now math is the friend of Sanders supporters? MyNameGoesHere Jan 2019 #182
when did I say I was a Sanders supporter? NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #183
Obligatory: betsuni Jan 2019 #184
Reading comprehension is not a strength of yours now, is it? NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #188
LOL betsuni Jan 2019 #190
I love this video Gothmog Jan 2019 #195
It never gets old, very well done. betsuni Jan 2019 #220
#BernieMath...nt SidDithers Jan 2019 #185
You saw what I posted in my original post, right? NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #196
There is always a chance Apollyonus Jan 2019 #218
There is no math in January 2019, a year before people vote. themaguffin Jan 2019 #194
Provided those other candidates are still there when the primaries start. LiberalFighter Jan 2019 #197
Bernie has a chance if he runs ZeroSomeBrains Jan 2019 #198
what a list bdamomma Jan 2019 #199
well most of his followers are 4 yrs older now.. they have grown up and got jobs, married, kids... samnsara Jan 2019 #201
Math says to me Sanders would likely lead to a trump -- or other GOPer -- candidate's victory. Hoyt Jan 2019 #202
Bernie's time has past. dubyadiprecession Jan 2019 #203
How many of those 2016 voters that think he is "damaged goods" NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #205
I noticed I-Sanders is seeking photos ops with Ocasio. Hortensis Jan 2019 #210
That was then randr Jan 2019 #204
How novel, another Bernie thread. flibbitygiblets Jan 2019 #206
Of Course He Does (n/t) corbettkroehler Jan 2019 #207
I love DU math, lol cbdo2007 Jan 2019 #209
You forgot to carry the 2. nt TeamPooka Jan 2019 #212
If I understand correctly, the DNC passed a rule over the summer that says hughee99 Feb 2019 #226
Sanders May struggle in primaries Gothmog Feb 2019 #230
Yes - I had posted elsewhere just today NewJeffCT Feb 2019 #231

Pachamama

(16,875 posts)
146. I must have had something on my screen too that made me see "Meth says...."....
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 10:25 AM
Jan 2019

Probably because that is the only thing that made sense.....certainly not "Math says...."


NastyRiffraff

(12,448 posts)
96. Okay, you owe me a keyboard
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 06:52 PM
Jan 2019

I sprayed all over it. I was already laughing my ass off over the OP, then you came along!

Laurian

(2,593 posts)
2. Too early to predict.
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 01:39 PM
Jan 2019

I also cannot believe Bernie will hold 75% of his previous voters after the 2016 debacle. I don’t think he’ll be allowed to participate as a Democrat.

exboyfil

(17,857 posts)
7. My daughters and I won't caucus for him
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 01:47 PM
Jan 2019

this time. That is at least three votes he won't have in Iowa.

What if he goes 3rd party in the general election if he is not allowed to participate?

Hekate

(90,202 posts)
73. He's too pure for us Dems & played games right into the Convention. He'll play games again...
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 03:59 PM
Jan 2019

The man has not learned a thing, and still thinks my life & death concerns are "identity politics."

barbiegeek

(1,140 posts)
156. BERNIE IS NOT A DEMOCRAT. HE IS TRYING TO HURT THE PARTY. BERNIE VOTERS GAVE US TRUMP
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 01:26 PM
Jan 2019

I AM NOT NOR WILL I SUPPORT HIM. HE IS NOT A MEMBER OF OUR PARTY!

 

ehrnst

(32,640 posts)
151. He explained that he didn't go 3rd party last time because of $$ and marketing
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 11:49 AM
Jan 2019

that running as a Democrat would give him access to.

The Greens certainly don't have it, even with help from Russia.

NewJeffCT

(56,827 posts)
145. Which candidates will draw away his votes? And, will they stay away?
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 08:43 AM
Jan 2019

Sanders already did poorly with minority voters in 2016.

I can see O'Rourke drawing away *some* of the youth/college vote.

Sherrod Brown possibly could get *some* white working class votes

Warren and Jeff Merkley maybe can get *some* older progressive voters that were part of Sanders' base.

Biden can get some of the white working class votes, but may also take votes from Harris and some more "establishment" Democrats.

As we get to later in the year this year and towards the holidays (Thanksgiving/Christmas), if any of these candidates drop out of the race, will their votes go back to Sanders or will they go to another Democrat in the race?

Without Biden in the race, Sanders has to be the favorite in Iowa and NH unless Warren and O'Rourke can get in there. Sanders was close in Nevada in 2016- is he the favorite in 2020?

Do Harris and Booker divide up the SC vote so it's not a decisive victory for either?

Harris then wins California, but we have the rest of the Super Tuesday states on March 3 as well - Texas (O'Rourke?), NC, VA, etc

NewJeffCT

(56,827 posts)
148. OK - so, let's say he retains HALF of his support
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 11:38 AM
Jan 2019

Using the same 30.02 million baseline

Sanders now gets 6.585 million votes

Going by last week's Politico poll, you get these totals for the remaining 23.4 million votes

Biden 6.0931 million votes
O'Rourke 1.4061 million votes
Harris 2.10915 million
Booker 0.9374 million
Warren 1.4061 million
Bloomberg 0.4687 million
Castro 0.4687 million
Brown 0.23435 million
Gillebrand 0.4687 million

 

manor321

(3,344 posts)
4. You've made assumptions to get to your conclusion
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 01:43 PM
Jan 2019

I don't see dedicated "Bernie voters" as anything other than a small group, not 75%.

ooky

(8,889 posts)
23. I think you are correct.
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 02:10 PM
Jan 2019

Just speaking for myself,

I try to always vote for the candidate who supports my most important priorities and has a good chance of being elected. Last time that was Sanders in the primary - there weren't that many candidates. Nothing against HRC who I thought was the most qualified, but I feared her electability because of all the smears she was getting. When he lost I voted for HRC in the general election. This time there are more choices and better candidates than Sanders IMO, and I intend to support those candidates in the primary. Presently I'm leaning toward Brown and Harris, both who support my priorities and both more electable than Sanders IMO in this general election.

Mariana

(14,849 posts)
30. Yes indeed.
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 02:23 PM
Jan 2019

That's why he used words like "if" and "potentially" and "could" and "maybe". So it would be clear he's making assumptions.

NewJeffCT

(56,827 posts)
142. Thanks for realizing that
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 08:28 AM
Jan 2019

And, as I said, back in 2016, I had said that Clinton, barring an epic collapse or actual health issues, had sewn up the Democratic nomination on Super Tuesday, March 1, 2016 because the math was heavily against Sanders. The proportional way Democrats divide up the delegates made it almost impossible to come back. Even though Trump had a commanding lead at that point, the Republicans do have some "all or nothing" states where a candidate could pull an upset and get every delegate for that state and make a comeback.

However, the media and both Sanders and Clinton supporters continued the kabuki dance for months like Sanders had a chance (the hacked DNC emails were from April and May 2016, which was well after the race was essentially over)

NastyRiffraff

(12,448 posts)
97. It could be 200%! Or 300%!
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 06:55 PM
Jan 2019

While we're in Fantasyland, why not? Here on Planet Earth, unlikely to the point of impossible.

TreasonousBastard

(43,049 posts)
8. Something else says that a whole lot of those 10 million votes will be spread...
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 01:49 PM
Jan 2019

across a dozen or so candidates that aren't Hillary.

calguy

(5,225 posts)
11. Reality tells me he has no shot
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 01:50 PM
Jan 2019

With so many other choices this time around Bernie is going to be viewed as "so last cycle". Although I've always liked him I did not support him. I would still like to like him but his failure to let off the attacks against HRC late in the primaries when it was obvious he could not win turned me off permanently. What started out as a just cause turned into an ego trip that he has still not gotten off from. In the end he did more to hurt democrats than he did to help them. Just my honest opinion.

Chemisse

(30,793 posts)
88. I agree and I think many of his early supporters soured on him by the end.
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 04:56 PM
Jan 2019

That and the fact that other, fresher faces are bringing in similar ideas this time around makes him close to being obsolete in the eyes of many.

I think that's how it will turn out. That 75% might more likely be 25%, and less as they meet all the others.

SidDithers

(44,228 posts)
12. More fun, and completely useless math...
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 01:50 PM
Jan 2019

Bernie's ~13 million out of 30 million votes = ~43%

If you assume he gets 75% of previous support, = ~33%


Are there any polls, excluding the silly DFA one, that has Sanders anywhere near 33%?





And a reminder, it's about delegates, not votes.

Sid

 

earthshine

(1,642 posts)
13. I support Bernie. Whether or not he wins the primary, his voice will be valuable during the debates.
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 01:51 PM
Jan 2019

The more progressives we have on stage during the debates, and out there campaigning, the better the Democratic party will be.

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
76. What exactly is "progressive" about encouraging anyone to smear and denigrate Democrats?
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 04:11 PM
Jan 2019

How do things like that benefit the party or promote unity? All I know is that it's NOT TRUE that Democrats are "ideologically bankrupt". It's also NOT TRUE that Democrats are "feeble". It's NOT TRUE that Democrats are "corrupt". And it's NOT TRUE that the Democratic party is "the party of the one-percent". It's NOT TRUE that there's "no difference between Democrats and Republicans." It's NOT TRUE that Democrats are "do-nothings". It's NOT TRUE that the Democratic party "doesn't care about climate change." It's NOT TRUE that the Democrats "focus too much" on diversity. It's also NOT TRUE that people who the refuse to vote for an African-American because of his skin color "aren't racists". It's also NOT TRUE that the Democrats who "are very big into diversity" aren't "particularly sympathetic" to the working class. It's NOT TRUE that the Democratic party is owned by Wall Street.

Seriously, why would it be "valuable" to give anyone a national platform to engage in this type of untrue and divisive rhetoric?

All I'm saying is that that those things do NOT motivate undecided voters to support Democrats. It also creates distrust and suspicion with the Democratic party, and that has the effect of weakening the party. Naturally, a weak and divided Democratic party only serves to benefit the GOP... and the Russians.

It serves no good purpose to do or say things that are advantageous to the GOP. That's a rational position to take, and I think that most reasonable people, and loyal Democrats can agree with that.

GulfCoast66

(11,949 posts)
105. When his delegates booed John Lewis at our last convention.
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 09:59 PM
Jan 2019

While Bernie sat there grinning like a man getting his revenge he took his brand back to the Huey Long progressives politics of the 30s.

His recent comments just doubled down on that meme.

We have not and will not forget that shameful display.

 

earthshine

(1,642 posts)
107. I remember that. JL dissed Bernie first.
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 10:05 PM
Jan 2019

Said he wasn't at the protest, while photos proved otherwise.

If you don't want Bernie to speak at the debates, it means you are afraid of what he has to say.

I am looking forward to a series of robust debates, and afterward, I'll choose my champion.

GulfCoast66

(11,949 posts)
110. You so blithely defend booing John Lewis?
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 10:14 PM
Jan 2019

Who got his head bashed in while marching over the Edmond Pettus bridge by racist cops in the original Selma march which almost killed him. Then sat not 20 feet from MLK as he gave the 2nd most influential speech in this nations history as his role as the leader of the radical youth branch of the civil rights movement.

But booing this great man, perhaps the greatest living American, is justified cause he was mean to your hero?

Attacking anyone, no matter how distinguished is justified if he is critical of your guy? Reminds me of attacks on critical POWs for getting captured.

You just validated my original point.

Thanks.




 

earthshine

(1,642 posts)
115. Right. This was the march that he denied Bernie's presence, yes?
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 10:59 PM
Jan 2019

I did not defend the booing. I stated why it happened.

Please be offended elsewhere.

GulfCoast66

(11,949 posts)
117. Bernie was now at the Selma March!! LOL.
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 11:16 PM
Jan 2019

You got be kidding me. Bernie was arrested for occupying a building in fucking Vermont. By cops who were sympathetic, politely escorted him to jail then let him go. John Lewis poo-pooed that, which is understandable since Bernie was touting as a great accomplishment. It was undoubtedly honorable, but he was never at risk of physical harm.

Now you are trying to conflate a white Vermonter’s symbolic arrest with John Lewis being almost killed in one of the most pivatal civil rights moments in our history. Actually, you are claiming he was there. Next you will be claiming he was standing next to MLK when he gave his speech at the Lincoln memorial. Which John Lewis actually was.

I have 2 recommendations.

1. Study the history of the civil rights movement. You obviously haven’t.

2. Google the First Rule of Holes.



 

earthshine

(1,642 posts)
125. Sorry. He was at the March on Washington, not Selma. My bad.
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 01:02 AM
Jan 2019

Your problem is with the behavior of some Bernie supporters/delegates.

You conflate that with Bernie's progressive messaging.

My post merely stated that I want to hear Bernie's voice in the primary. I don't condone anyone's disrespect.

I say the more left-leaning voices in the primary, the better. You are arguing something else.

If you choose to be personally offended by me, so be it.

GulfCoast66

(11,949 posts)
127. Please. You defended the booing of John Lewis.
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 01:22 AM
Jan 2019

That tends to piss off liberal democrats who understand the price men and women paid during the Civil Rights movement, which continues today.

I encourage you to read about the progressive movement in the South in the 30’s and 40’s. And about the progressive president Woodrow Wilson and his racist policies. The term progressive is very suspect with many. Perhaps then you will understand why people, especially southerners, can view them with suspicion. There is a reason I may share almost all your values but refuse to accept the label of Progressive. And prefer Liberal.

What Bernie with his Black and Latino Enemies said is no different that what you can read on right wing sites about people voting for President Obama because he is black.

I truly do not want to get in a fight with you. Cause on the internet it means nothing. But want you to understand where I come from. And that there are lots of Liberal Democratic Candidates who can get us where we want to be.

Who are members of the Democratic Party

I hope you have a nice evening.









 

earthshine

(1,642 posts)
130. I did not defend the booing. Enough of that.
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 01:38 AM
Jan 2019

Again, I merely said I want Bernie to speak in the primaries. That you don't is your personal take on things.

I support Bernie. That is to say, I support his right to candidacy. That is different than saying I support what his supporters do, many of whom were clearly disrespectful on a number of occasions. And it is also true that every candidate attracts some crazies, and no candidate has significant control over their behavior.

What Bernie with his Black and Latino Enemies said is no different that what you can read on right wing sites about people voting for President Obama because he is black.


I don't understand this as written.

I'm sure you and agree on 95% of social and political issues. We are both here.

I am signing off. Good night.

betsuni

(25,139 posts)
116. He didn't say that. "I never saw him. I never met him" is what he said.
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 11:10 PM
Jan 2019

Why would he remember every college student involved in civil rights activities. It's a conspiracy theory that Lewis lied about it, it's silly.

GulfCoast66

(11,949 posts)
118. Read his/her last reply to me.
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 11:30 PM
Jan 2019

Now he claims BS was at the Selma March with Lewis. Seems to think the civil rights movement was just one big March!

Although, what he actually does is demonstrate he has no understanding of the civil rights struggle.

Consider the position he is defending, it’s not surprising.

Thinking about it, it is very sad how little understanding that even some on the left know about the sacrifice required to get even where we are today.

Now I am depressed. This is probably a well meaning person. But just has no clue.

GulfCoast66

(11,949 posts)
120. And John Lewis only said he never met Bernie. Because some of his delusional supporters claimed BS
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 11:51 PM
Jan 2019

Was at the Selma march. Which as much as I dislike BS he has never claimed. Because he was not there.

I am a southern white man over 50. I understand that the civil rights protesters before and just after my birth were putting their life on the line with their actions. It depresses me that so many liberals don’t understand that and think we could not go back to those times.

I imagine that young, northern liberals in the 1880s when blacks were getting elected to Congress could never imagine Jim Crow.

All this talk about too much emphasis on Social Justice takes me back to my fathers youth in the 30s in Louisiana when they had a progressive governor who was not a fan of civil rights at all.

betsuni

(25,139 posts)
121. Good point about young northern liberals in the 1880s.
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 12:01 AM
Jan 2019

They must've had high hopes for a new America with a great future. Sigh.

Gothmog

(144,005 posts)
133. I was at the convention when the sanders delegates pulled this stunt
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 01:59 AM
Jan 2019

The Clinton campaign had a great whipping infrastructure and warned her delegates 20 to 30 minutes in advance. My whip told me that sanders was asked to stop this stunt and declined. The Texas delegation shared a bus with the Texas delegation and there were some pissed off delegates. Congressman John Lewis is a national treasure

My whip works for the DNC and he and other Clinton workers will be glad to do some ads

Hassin Bin Sober

(26,273 posts)
158. Phones with cameras blanket every square yard of civilization yet you've never posted a video.
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 01:30 PM
Jan 2019

All the times you’ve made this claim you’ve never backed it up with video from any of the literally thousands of cameras in the building that night.

Where are all the boos? I heard a beautiful speech well received by everyone in the room.




Meanwhile


Gothmog

(144,005 posts)
160. Where you there?
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 02:05 PM
Jan 2019

I was there. I was shocked when I got the text from my whip because I could not imagine anyone booing Congressman John Lewis. The fact that sanders refused to stop this stunt is really sad but denying that this stunt occurred will not work in the real world

On the prior version of JPR, there was a sad thread about this incident. JPR is now on a new operating system and cannot be searched but I and others saved that thread. Nance has a nice thread about this incident where she copied many of the sad comments from the sanders supporters on JPR https://www.democraticunderground.com/10028476265 From Nance's post

Also on the JPR homefront: Trump is the legitimately-elected pOTUS, and all stories about his Russian ties are “fake news”. The “Establishment” is trying to “steal” his presidency away from him because they were planning a war with Russia, and the peace-loving Trump - as always mindful of the welfare of others - is standing in their way by pursuing a meaningful friendship with Putin.

Amazed at how the (alleged) True Progressives ™ on JPR have so quickly morphed into Trumpettes? You shouldn’t be. That’s what happens when a site full of malleable malcontents is overrun with RWers, and are willing to swallow any swill emanating from anti-Dem sources.

JPR takes “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” idiocy to a whole new level. They are now on-board with Mr. Tangerine Man, based solely on the fact that he “saved” them from the horrors that a Hillary presidency would have brought about – like appointing billionaire, Goldman-Sachs-type corporatists to her Cabinet. (So glad we dodged THAT bullet!)

So beware of Trumpettes wearing JPR's version of True Progressive ™ clothing. They were RWers (or RW wannabees) all along – or sadder still, mindless sheep willing to follow the Judas Goat without hesitation, while pretending to be independent "thinkers" immune to being led by the nose to the slaughterhouse

See also some more posts from JPR that were saved https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=8483575

I am a private facebook page for Clinton national delegates. There are still a ton of hard feelings and outrage at the conduct of the sanders campaign at the national convention. My whip was working for the DNC during the midterms and will no doubt end up on one of the major Democratic candidates campaigns (there is no way that he will get near a sanders campaign). There are a ton of Clinton campaign workers who will be glad to show up in ads on this issue.

Gothmog

(144,005 posts)
164. Ask your fellow sanders supporters who are JPR posters
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 02:20 PM
Jan 2019

I was there as was my daughter who had a guest pass for the first night of the convention. We also did not video the group of sanders delegates who yelled at my daughter and called her the c-word because she would not try to get me to change my vote.

In the real world, a real campaign carefully vet their delegates. The reason for this is that these delegates reflect on the candidate. I know that I was vetted and I helped to vet other delegates. There was some truly horrible conduct by sanders delegates at the convention including the booing of John Lewis.

You are welcomed to ignore these facts. If sanders runs and is viable there will be Clinton campaign staffers like my whip who will be glad to make ads about what happened.

Again, I was there and I saw this and other incidents

Denial is not just a river in Africa

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
168. That's absolutely true.
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 03:01 PM
Jan 2019
The reason for this is that these delegates reflect on the candidate.
That's absolutely true. They certainly do, don't they?

Gothmog

(144,005 posts)
193. Are sanders supporters getting worried?
Tue Jan 29, 2019, 10:56 AM
Jan 2019

In the real world, campaigns vet their national delegates because the conduct of these delegates will reflect on the candidate I think that it is appropriate to use this as a campaign issue is sanders runs.

Pretending that sanders delegates did not boo Congressman John Lewis will not work. Too many people saw this conduct.

Gothmog

(144,005 posts)
223. Time will tell
Tue Feb 5, 2019, 01:38 PM
Feb 2019

There are a ton of voters who will not forget or forgive what happened to Congressman John Lewis at the national convention. You can ignore these facts and pretend that that this incident did not happen but that will not affect a large number of hard core Democratic voters with long memories who will not forgive or forget

George II

(67,782 posts)
165. How about this:
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 02:25 PM
Jan 2019

at about 1:15 into the video, "She stole it, she stole it".



And they booed Marcia Fudge at the convention:



I've watched your first video several times. There is booing going on, but overcome by cheering delegates.

Hassin Bin Sober

(26,273 posts)
167. Nope.
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 02:36 PM
Jan 2019

First of all, I’ve seen that first clip and it doesn’t even match its own header. One kook yelling in the background doesn’t equal a “shout down”

verb
(tr, adverb)
to drown, overwhelm, or silence by shouting or talking loudly



Second of all. I asked for video proof of claims that other poster has repeatedly made. I’m not a pensioner. Im busy. I’m not going to review every video you feel like posting. But thanks anyway.

I’m looking for proof of the booing of John Lewis at the convention.

Gothmog

(144,005 posts)
170. I was there and so were a ton of other true Democrats
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 03:13 PM
Jan 2019

If you want video, then just wait until the Super Tuesday primaries if sanders is viable.

George II

(67,782 posts)
171. You know the old saying...."you can lead a horse to water................"
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 03:31 PM
Jan 2019

There's so much out there about that incident, one only has to want to find it. Even Samantha Bee did a segment on the disrespectful treatment John Lewis got inside and outside the Convention Hall.

You can find many of them in the time it took you to search for your two videos.

betsuni

(25,139 posts)
219. "To the Bernie or Bust people, you're being ridiculous" Sarah Silverman at the convention.
Wed Jan 30, 2019, 01:54 AM
Jan 2019

This isn't about Lewis, but here was disruption at the convention. This is a fact.




Gothmog

(144,005 posts)
175. The cheering by delegates was because we were warned in advance about this stunt
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 03:58 PM
Jan 2019

The Clinton campaign had a great whipping infrastructure. We were warned about all of the planned stunts by the sanders campaign and delegates were ready to try to outshout the sanders delegates who booed. This happened a great deal on Thursday night where there were a good number of planned sanders delegates stunts. We were even passed out signs in anticipation of these stunts to hold up to block the sanders signs

KitSileya

(4,035 posts)
235. Not to mention, the whole point was that Senator Sanders had fewer delegates.
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 12:25 PM
Apr 2019

His delegates were a minority because he lost. A significant minority, yes, and all of them chosen by the Sanders campaign (because that is how delegates are chosen, natch), and because of them, their behavior reflects directly on the candidate whose delegates they are.

 

Apollyonus

(812 posts)
214. OMG .. one must be comatose not to have remembered that
Wed Jan 30, 2019, 01:07 AM
Jan 2019

It was a nationwide WOW moment when Bernie supporters booed and shouted down a national treasure like John Lewis.

If I were a Bernie supporter, I'd have condemned it instantly.

John Lewis is an icon of the civil rights movement and a pillar of the Democratic party.

Denying that it ever happened would require one's head to be somewhere where news is not seen or heard.

Gothmog

(144,005 posts)
224. I was there and I was shocked when I got the text from my whip
Tue Feb 5, 2019, 01:39 PM
Feb 2019

Last edited Tue Feb 5, 2019, 04:40 PM - Edit history (1)

I have trouble imaging a planned stunt of booing Congressman John Lewis

Gothmog

(144,005 posts)
176. That was outside of the convention that morning
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 04:00 PM
Jan 2019

There was booing inside the convention when John Lewis was introduced and during his speech. We were warned and did out best to drown out the booing of Congressman John Lewis by the sanders delegates

 

ehrnst

(32,640 posts)
178. The booing at Marcia Fudge when she opened the convention is also on video.
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 04:19 PM
Jan 2019

It was rude and counterproductive.

Gothmog

(144,005 posts)
179. There were so many incidents like that incident that I lost count
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 08:14 PM
Jan 2019

We were being warned ever time one of these stunts by the whips so that we could try to counter the boos. The last night was very busy

Gothmog

(144,005 posts)
232. Are you still in denial about what happen at the convention?
Tue Feb 19, 2019, 11:43 AM
Feb 2019

There will be ads about this incident run in Southern states.

lapucelle

(18,042 posts)
155. JL said he didn't see BS at the march, most likely because BS wasn't there.
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 12:52 PM
Jan 2019

After they booed JL and then learned that they were dead wrong about an imaginary slight, I wonder if their response was a casual, "my bad".

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/sanders-mlk-selma-march/

I've already heard the stump speech 100+ times. What I really I can't wait for is to hear BS answer debate questions if he decides to run.

sheshe2

(83,356 posts)
112. Talk about progressives...
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 10:19 PM
Jan 2019

Did you listen to Kamala Harris tonight? What a breath of fresh air. Bright,vivacious and an inspiring speaker.

Grasswire2

(13,564 posts)
126. any candidate that pulls the party to the left is valuable in the primary.
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 01:16 AM
Jan 2019

That's my opinion.

If Bernie were POTUS now, we'd be on our way to many positive changes espoused by progressives.

He's not, but he will fight for principle every step of the way and keep millennials energized.

 

Apollyonus

(812 posts)
216. So are you ok with the booing of John Lewis
Wed Jan 30, 2019, 01:32 AM
Jan 2019

and the despicable behavior of his entitled brat delegates at the convention?

His continuing his campaign to damage Hillary when a kindergartner could do the math and say she won?

His acting like a prima donna in the convention and refusing to wholeheartedly endorse Hillary?

His doing bare minimum lip service to supporting Hillary in the GE?

His not quashing the meme that he was somehow cheated out of the nomination despite getting a few million less votes?

His not quashing the idea that if Hillary lost, he could run again in 4 years so vote for Trump or Stein?

I am afraid that if he runs again, some or all of these would be repeated .... fortunately, a lot of democrats have become wise as you can see on DU and elsewhere. It will be different this time around.

Where are his tax returns by the way? What is he hiding? People want to see them.

Glamrock

(11,781 posts)
19. Kind of agree, kinda don't.
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 01:56 PM
Jan 2019

Outside the diehard Dem base he's still very popular. But, with 4 more years added to his age, he's gonna have an uphill battle. Kamala is going to pull the majority of the black vote. No question. And a lot of the diehards too. Bernie will pull a bunch of independents and those who consider themselves to be far left. Biden will pull from all of the above as he was part of a positive, successful administration. If Biden doesn't run, I'm betting it'll be between Kamala and Bernie. And I'm betting it's gonna be a tough, close race between the two. The rest of the field is wasting their time in my estimation. Top tier are going to be Kamala, Bernie, & Biden (if he runs). The only wildcard would be Beto. If he runs (and that's a big if) his ability to speak in such an inspirational way could flip the field. Just my opinion!

 

Apollyonus

(812 posts)
217. Bernie won't last past NH mathematically
Wed Jan 30, 2019, 01:35 AM
Jan 2019

but the 10% from media buys is a big motivation and he will keep on going till the convention with some 400 delegates. He will not even be in the top five.

KitSileya

(4,035 posts)
236. Old Towne Media still up and running?
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 12:29 PM
Apr 2019

I wonder who owns it - in whose pockets do those kickbacks go to now that Ms. Sanders had to stop receiving it after his first Senate campaign?

Bettie

(15,998 posts)
20. Look, I supported Sen. Sanders in the last primary
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 01:59 PM
Jan 2019

I like that he pulled the overall platform to the left.

I like that he got more young people interested in the political process.

I voted for Sec. Clinton in the election, because she was our nominee. During the time before the convention, I realized (OK, my beloved and very smart husband laid it out for me) that I, a relatively intelligent person, not a genius but not a turnip either, had been taken in by 30 years (25? It was a long time) of negative press, designed to put the idea into all of our heads that Clinton was untrustworthy.

Advertising works and a constant drumbeat does seep into nearly everyone's subconscious.

I was taken in. I was absolutely wrong about her. It worked though, because many people of voting age literally can not recall a time when she wasn't under investigation for something or being criticized for something. So, either she's the smartest criminal who ever lived and has never left any actual evidence of wrongdoing beyond the speculative daydreams of a bunch of nutjobs (not the most likely scenario) or she's just a smart woman who scared a group of powerful people so badly that they set out to ruin her.

And she still won the votes of the majority of people. Perhaps they were right to be afraid of her.

I won't be voting for Sanders in the next primary cycle for a variety of reasons, but a big one is that we need new names, we need new faces.

Others include the following, in no particular order.

I dislike that he was a Democrat while running, but changed back over afterward. Fact is, he could have done away with a lot of animosity toward him simply by staying a Dem. It wouldn't change a single thing about his life, his senate seat, or anything but his pride. As much as he might like to have it both ways, that's really not possible in any real sense.

He's also made missteps and statements that indicate he is rather out of touch with key constituencies of our party. I've been utterly dismayed by a lot of them.

He can do more good in the senate than he can running what will be an extremely divisive candidacy for President.

That divisiveness is hard wired in at this point.

Some people who will never, ever support anyone else no matter what (there are very few of these types, but they are loud...and there are many more trolls than there are actual people, I believe).

Others would never vote for him if he were the nominee. There are too many bad feelings on both sides for this to be a good idea.

We need unity and we need to keep our candidates positive. I'd love to see primary debates where candidates talk about why they are the best choice, not why so and so is a terrible choice.

That said, bashing those who support Sen. Sanders or Sec. Clinton is not useful for any of us. It just sets people into their camps and divides us.

Sorry this is so long, but hey, it's been festering for a while.

David__77

(23,220 posts)
36. His campaign may serve as non-violent "brass knuckles" to promote progressive policy position.
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 02:34 PM
Jan 2019

If the Democratic candidates en masse commitedly sign on to Medicare for All, a federal jobs guarantee, and progressive tax reform, then that would be great.

Bettie

(15,998 posts)
77. Those things would be great and I think that we should work toward them
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 04:12 PM
Jan 2019

but not at the expense of Trump and his lackeys "winning" another election.

 

Apollyonus

(812 posts)
92. The Democratic candidates are progressive enough
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 05:01 PM
Jan 2019

We have a slate of brilliant and accomplished candidates.

WE DON'T NEED SANDERS for anything.

The Velveteen Ocelot

(115,280 posts)
21. Math needs to put away the hash pipe.
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 02:05 PM
Jan 2019

This isn't 2016. There's no chance Bernie will take votes away from the progressive candidates that are competing this time. The reason Bernie got so much support in 2016 is that there was no progressive alternative to Clinton; that's why I supported him at the time. It was a two-way race (no offense to Martin O'Malley) and he was bound to do well with the younger and more liberal voters. This time there will be a number of candidates, maybe even most of them, supporting the same issues that made Bernie popular. And another reason he won't do as well this time is that so many of his die-hard supporters are doctrinaire assholes.

Bettie

(15,998 posts)
79. I do know a lot of "Bernie" people
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 04:14 PM
Jan 2019

who would have chosen Elizabeth Warren had she been running.

I know one, just one, who supported Sanders in the primaries and voted for anyone other than Clinton in the general.

The Velveteen Ocelot

(115,280 posts)
81. Just about everybody I know supported Bernie in the primaries
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 04:18 PM
Jan 2019

and immediately turned around for Clinton in the general. I really don't think Bernie has much of a chance this time now that there are so many other candidates to choose from.

Bettie

(15,998 posts)
82. The key point is that many of the candidates this year
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 04:29 PM
Jan 2019

do promote versions of the ideas he talked about. That is a good thing and I'll give him credit for injecting them into the last race.

Recently, however, he seems to be flailing around and not doing anyone, himself especially a whole lot of good.

karynnj

(59,475 posts)
25. I note that the "math" is based on him retaining 75% of what he had last time
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 02:14 PM
Jan 2019

However, he has come nowhere near that on polls on DailyKos, which both would have a disportionately large share of left leaning Democrats. You would expect that a higher percent of those groups would have voted for Sanders than in the population of Democratic primary voters. So, for your analysis to be reasonable, you would expect that he would now poll better than .75 times his percent in 2016. You would expect numbers in the low to mid 30s IF this were a poll of the entire Democratic primary voting population.

Daily Kos has had two polls, Warren led the first; Harris the second, Sanders in both was at 11 or 12 percent. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/426625-kamala-harris-leads-2020-dem-field-in-second-daily-kos-straw-poll Note that Harris had not announced for the first one.

Even the DFA poll, that Sanders won in 2018, does not show he is retaining 75% of his 2016 numbers. In 2015, Sanders won the DFA endorsement after he got 88% of the DFA membership poll. His December 2018 win was at 36% - and was before any candidate announced. This is a group that disproportionately has a huge number of Sanders supporters.

Sanders strength in 2016 was a function of people strongly allied with him AND many who simply wanted a Hillary Clinton alternative.

PSPS

(13,516 posts)
26. That would mean both parties are running kremlin candidates. RT can host the debates.
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 02:18 PM
Jan 2019

Maybe RT can host the "debates." Bernie was all over RT last time.

Ninsianna

(1,349 posts)
42. He's a great favorite of their hosta and his former employees/surrogates
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 02:38 PM
Jan 2019

Work there now and at Sputnik.

DarthDem

(5,253 posts)
54. Except . . .
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 02:56 PM
Jan 2019

. . . that the 10 or 12 other candidates won't stay in the whole way, and as they drop out, people not voting for Sanders will coalesce around someone who isn't him.

Glamrock

(11,781 posts)
63. True true.
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 03:20 PM
Jan 2019

But if (and it's a big one) he retains that 75%, they will be exiting the field with him in or near the lead. And some of those voters will undoubtably coalesce around him. People on this forum tend to forget how politically ingnorant/disengaged most of the country is, including a huge portion of regular Democratic voters. These people don't blame Bernie for Hillary's loss like they do here on DU. Most of the these blue collar, disengaged Dem voters and independants I've run into in Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, and Kentucky are of the opinion, "we should have picked Bernie." The rest just can't believe we elected this asshole.
Not trying to say my experience is be all end all countrywide. Just my experience. And Bernie has name recognition with these folks. Of course that will change during the primary season. But I don't think the poster is wrong that he'll be formidable. I'm betting he'll lose. He won't be running against someone with 20+ years of smears attached. I don't think the poster is wrong. I think he has a better chance this time than last. I don't think he'll win, but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibilities.

For the record, I'm not advocating for him. I'm for Biden.

DarthDem

(5,253 posts)
106. Understood
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 10:05 PM
Jan 2019

I'm a Biden/Harris person myself, not necessarily in that order and the slash doesn't imply a ticket.

But with the CA primary now (finally) moved up in the roster of events, it seems unlikely that he's going to be in or near the lead, as you put in, for any length of time. And of course there's the issue of him not being able to position himself as (a) the anti-Clinton and/or (b) the most liberal person in the race. Neither one of those gambits will work this time.

Glamrock

(11,781 posts)
132. Oh shit that's right!
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 01:54 AM
Jan 2019

I completely forgot CA moved up in the primaries! I'm so used to them being last...

Blows a huge hole in my analysis don't it?

Thanks for the correction!

NewJeffCT

(56,827 posts)
152. However
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 11:49 AM
Jan 2019

Iowa is still first and given that Sanders had a very close loss to Clinton in 2016, it means Sanders is likely the favorite again.

Then, we get New Hampshire and another likely Sanders victory and the media starts running with "SANDERS WINNING" or "BERNIE the FRONTRUNNER"

I believe Nevada and SC are next - Nevada was a close loss for Sanders as well. This time out, is he the frontrunner there coming off of wins in Iowa and New Hampshire?

Write off SC for Sanders, but do Booker and Harris split the vote there so it's not an overwhelming loss like 2016? (73-26) Say Bernie gets 15% this time, but Harris, Booker and Biden split the 73%?

Then we have California and Super Tuesday:
Warren gets Mass, Harris gets California, O'Rourke gets Texas, Bernie gets Vermont and you have VA, NC, OK and Alabama to fight over. Maybe Biden gets VA and NC?



LonePirate

(13,386 posts)
28. Just like in 2016, Sanders will be effectively eliminated once the South and CA vote in early March.
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 02:20 PM
Jan 2019

Granted, CA didn't vote until June in 2016 but the state moving up to March does him no favors, especially if Harris is still in the race on that date, which seems likely.

obamanut2012

(25,911 posts)
48. And, CA will break heavily for Kamala Harris
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 02:43 PM
Jan 2019

And, I suspect many southern states will, too. Maybe Biden in the South, but probably Harris.

 

Apollyonus

(812 posts)
86. He will keep on trucking
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 04:41 PM
Jan 2019

and placing huge media buys .... collecting 10% all the way.

Math didn't bother him the last time.

Maybe the Vermont lake front mansion needs remodeling and an addition.

Where are Bernie's tax returns by the way?

 

Apollyonus

(812 posts)
129. Bernie's tax returns will prove me wrong
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 01:36 AM
Jan 2019

Where are they?

Why would any candidate keep on campaigning and placing ad buys when it was mathematically impossible to win the primary?

Grasswire2

(13,564 posts)
131. your disinformation is very troubling.
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 01:47 AM
Jan 2019

I'm sure you know that your slurs about Bernie are slurs. And you're getting pretty close to breaking the DU rule about not re-litigating the 2016 election.

R B Garr

(16,920 posts)
200. Wrong. The RW loves Bernie. Tad Devine and Paul Manafort
Tue Jan 29, 2019, 11:48 AM
Jan 2019

used to work together. You should be more concerned about their attacks on Democrats. I doubt people will be browbeaten into bowing down to misinformation about Democrats again.

GoCubsGo

(32,061 posts)
32. The math tells me that he has zero chance, assuming
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 02:28 PM
Jan 2019

that you are talking about the Democratic nomination. The rules have been changed. One has to be a member of the Democratic Party in order to run for office as a Democrat. Unless I missed it, Bernie has not changed his party affiliation to Democrat, therefore, he is ineligible for the nomination.

Glamrock

(11,781 posts)
34. He can switch to Dem anytime he feels like it.
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 02:33 PM
Jan 2019

I'm neither for or against. But that rule change is not hard to overcome as far as what I've seen. Besides, the Democratic party will absolutely allow him to run in the Democratic primary as opposed to running as a spoiler as an independant.

Glamrock

(11,781 posts)
44. Hope that's not true
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 02:41 PM
Jan 2019

Personally I'd rather have him part of our primary than an independant. You think Stein pulled votes? Look out if he runs outside the ticket.

GoCubsGo

(32,061 posts)
49. I was born and raised in Chicago.
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 02:43 PM
Jan 2019

And, not a "sir", BTW.

I do know locals who are Cubs fans. They used to run Cubs games on WGN America...

Takket

(21,425 posts)
35. Just goes to show you can use math ro prove anything if your assumptions are
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 02:33 PM
Jan 2019

fatally flawed.

How many times have you ever seen 13 campaigns go all the way to the convention?

Answer that question and you'll understand why your math doesn't work.

Ninsianna

(1,349 posts)
228. Math is a big part of how I view the world especially stats and politics.
Tue Feb 5, 2019, 08:30 PM
Feb 2019

It's not something I only use 9 - 5 and then shut off when day dreaming about bas candidates who never seem.to acknowledge math or logic or reason or my are of study when they say dumb stuff that makes my job harder while screwing over the people I work with and killing those I serve.

Math is a high part of why Bernie has no chance, what special theoretical filed of alternative math do you use that let's you ignore the ancient concept we use here on Earth?

NewJeffCT

(56,827 posts)
229. the same concept
Tue Feb 5, 2019, 09:49 PM
Feb 2019

that led me to say that Sanders had essentially no shot after Super Tuesday in 2016.

The same concept that also says that Harris, Booker, Castro, Warren, Klobuchar, Brown and others are going to divide up Clinton's vote and only some of Bernie's 2016 vote. All helped along by Russia.

If O'Rourke enters the race, that could change things up - even though he is middle of the pack among the Democratic caucus, he can steal some of the youth vote that Sanders received in 2016. However, the rumor is that he will not run.

If Biden enters the race, that could change things up as well, as he could get some of the white working class vote that Sanders received. But, it may be past his time to run.







 

wasupaloopa

(4,516 posts)
47. He will not win CA. I'd say he doesn't have a snow ball's chance in hell.
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 02:43 PM
Jan 2019

There are way more better candidates for him to hang onto 76%.

shanti

(21,672 posts)
53. Not if a Dem woman runs
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 02:52 PM
Jan 2019

I think a woman has it this time. Hillary would be in charge if dirty tricks hadn't been played. Bernie sparked a movement in 2016, but I'm not sure it would happen again. He started a fire in the youth vote. I love Bernie, but this is how I feel now.

sprinkleeninow

(20,136 posts)
103. Public radio runs an ad for 'Math Lab'. (?)
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 09:47 PM
Jan 2019

I always think they're saying 'Meth Lab'. 🙄

Thinking they named that service on porpoise.

VMA131Marine

(4,124 posts)
61. I voted for Bernie in the primary last time
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 03:11 PM
Jan 2019

No way I'm going to do it again. The Dems are putting up some good young candidates. They all deserve a look. As much as I like Joe Biden, I think his time has passed.

DFW

(54,058 posts)
62. I think your last sentence says it all
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 03:14 PM
Jan 2019

I think WAY more than 25% of his 2016 voters will go elsewhere.

AlexSFCA

(6,137 posts)
64. He hasnt confirmed yet he is running
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 03:23 PM
Jan 2019

a while ago he said it would depend on who else is running. In 2020 there other progressive candidates already running so it seems there would he no need for bernie to run. He can instead endorse a candidate he likes. We have a candidate for everyone this time. He’ll probably endorse tulsi.
Biden hasn’t announced either. He will only run if he beleives dems don’t have strong enough candidate to against trump (or pence).

Greywing

(1,124 posts)
74. No ... and he never really is a Democrat.
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 04:07 PM
Jan 2019

I admit I was enamored with Bernie for years but he is an Independent so let him run as an Independent and quit using the Democratic party as a vehicle for elections. I want a true, vibrant, progressive Democrat in 2020 race and Sanders does not meet that qualification.

demigoddess

(6,640 posts)
91. hope not! he is too much like trump!
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 05:01 PM
Jan 2019

"I'm not a democrat, I just want to run as one, and prevent anyone else from doing so"

 

Apollyonus

(812 posts)
94. THIS
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 05:07 PM
Jan 2019

A former Bernie supporter said that Tad Devine and Paul Manafort and two sides of the same Ruble.

Now extrapolate it to their bosses.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
136. A campaign based on assuring people their problems are someone else's fault
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 02:39 AM
Jan 2019

I think we need to do better than populism.

standingtall

(2,785 posts)
95. Sanders will not get anywhere close to what he got in 2016
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 05:27 PM
Jan 2019

2016 was basically a two person race 2020 will be very different. The biggest appeal of Bernie Sanders is his message of economic justice. Joe Biden despite his baggage can at least gesture towards economic justice and if Sherrod Brown decides to run you can bet most unions will endorse him leaving no path for Sanders to even be competitive in the 2020 primary and that's not even counting everybody else that's going to be in the race.

andym

(5,441 posts)
98. Actually I doubt that he retains as much support as you think, BUT he does have a chance
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 07:18 PM
Jan 2019

if his core support remains greater than 10% of the Democratic Primary voters then he might have a chance at a convention where many candidates have split up the delegates. However, in such a case, typically a more moderate consensus candidate would be chosen.

delisen

(6,039 posts)
102. He had the support of and extensive Russian operation in 2016
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 09:45 PM
Jan 2019

as per the Special Prosecutor Mueller's indictment of 13 Russians in October 2018.

Maybe they can work some magic again.

https://www.engadget.com/2018/02/16/us-indicts-13-russians-alleged-election-tampering/

By 2016, the Internet Research Agency is said to have begun focusing on the presidential election. It allegedly instructed its staff to spread negative information about Hillary Clinton, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio saying, "Use any opportunity to criticize Hillary and the rest (except Sanders and Trump -- we support them)." Those indicted are also said to have organized political rallies in Florida, New York and Pennsylvania ahead of the election as well as rallies after the election that were both in support of and against Donald Trump's victory. The indictment notes extensive use of Facebook, Twitter and Instagram throughout the Internet Research Agency's efforts.

FreeState

(10,553 posts)
109. Voted Bernie on the primaries last time
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 10:13 PM
Jan 2019

I won’t be voting him this time. I know many that feel the same way. His time has come and gone.

honest.abe

(8,556 posts)
111. Math must not be your strong suit.
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 10:17 PM
Jan 2019

Your argument is completely illogical from a math or any other standpoint. The biggest mistake you are making is that not all of those candidates will remain until the end. In fact very few will survive past super tuesday. Also Bernie 2020 is not Bernie 2016. No where close.

Mike Nelson

(9,903 posts)
113. Not sure about the exact math...
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 10:30 PM
Jan 2019

… but I think it's an interesting thesis. I think many of the other candidates would have to be evenly split and drop out in an order that works for Bernie. He could do well with less support. I don't think the chances are great... it's still very unpredictable.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
114. I see that Bernie Math is back in action.
Sun Jan 27, 2019, 10:59 PM
Jan 2019

First of all, there won't be all that many candidates for very long (most won't have the funds to remain in the race beyond Super Tuesday, if they even last that long). Secondly, there will be fewer caucuses in 2020. And there are candidates, such as Warren, who will cut into Bernie's support in New England and other predominantly white states where he did well in 2016.

As I've written before, 2016 was tailor-made for Sanders. He was *the* Clinton alternative. The one and only alternative to a polarizing front-runner...and even so, the race was over by Super Tuesday.

Sanders has no chance.

KitSileya

(4,035 posts)
135. I was just about to post about that Bernie math!
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 02:30 AM
Jan 2019

Is this the same Bernie math that insisted he could win even when he had to get more delegates than were available the last time? The same math that caused him to hamstring the Democratic down-ticket races by refusing to concede before the Convention and therefore not letting these races get the funds they so desperately needed? Funds that Hillary had raised, but that only the presumptive nominee could release? The same math that was based on getting superdelegates to go against the popular vote for him, but that said it was undemocratic of them so support the candidate with the MOST votes, Hillary?


 

sfwriter

(3,032 posts)
139. Bernie supporter last time...
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 06:37 AM
Jan 2019

Voting Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren this time.

Bernie will no fare well when there is more choice.

 

sfwriter

(3,032 posts)
180. "Like Bernie, they fled the party the second they realized they are one voice among many here..."
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 08:23 PM
Jan 2019

Nope, I am not the kind of person you describe.

I voted for Hillary Clinton in the general because that was my party's nominee. I've voted Democratic in every election save for one when I was in the Army. In that one, I couldn't vote. Hell, I've been here since the start of this forum.

Peddle your divisive BS someplace else. Lots of Bernie supporters are still in the party. This year, they have progressive options. That will dilute Bernie's vote. Bernie is older. That will further reduce his vote. Bernie has also got much more of a track record. People have had time to tire of him. That will dilute his vote.

But those former Bernie supporters will vote. They didn't "flee the party." They have shifted the dialog to the left. Candidates will be looking to win that vote and Bernie supporters probably won't take kindly to being mocked for their vote. I expect to hear more progressive messages to appeal to Bernie's base, not jerimiads aimed at alienating them. People are looking for a more progressive option and the MANY Bernie supporters have stuck around and helped to change the party.

Anyone who "fled the party" is welcome to come back and cast a vote. The more the merrier because, you know, they are just one vote among many here and Bernie isn't even likely to be a contender this time.

obamanut2012

(25,911 posts)
187. The poster is right, though -- many did flee and voted for Trump
Tue Jan 29, 2019, 08:21 AM
Jan 2019

And some Stein. It is an established fact that many went right, not left.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
141. NewJeff, start subtracting votes for Howard Schultz,
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 08:20 AM
Jan 2019

who's singing Sanders' song from the center. Gee, where and how many times have we heard THIS fake equalization with trumpsters before, underprincipled fools that we Democratic voters are?

Schultz announcing his serious intention of running on 60 Minutes:

"“We have a broken political system with both parties basically in business to preserve their own ideology without a recognition and responsibility to represent the interests of the American people,” Mr. Schultz said in the interview.

“Republicans and Democrats alike — who no longer see themselves as part of the far extreme of the far right and the far left — are looking for a home,” he added. “The word ‘independent,’ for me, is simply a designation on the ballot.”


Mr. Schultz sees himself as uniting under him those who don't see themselves as "extremists" from both the far right and far left. All for the good of the people, of course. Recognize Sanders' schtick? The difference is that this one hopes to gather more disaffected conservatives to his claimed "centrist" positions than just the 12% of Sanders followers who ultimately voted for Trump.

I've been watching for a competent, charismatic populist rabblerouser to arise who could join all the malcontents together to tear our democracy apart. Aside from his ability to self-fund, nothing says this is that threat yet, probably "just" another splinter candidate in these crazy dangerous times, but eyes open.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/27/us/politics/howard-schultz-president-2020.html

NewJeffCT

(56,827 posts)
143. I don't see him as much of a factor
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 08:31 AM
Jan 2019

unless he immediately starts dumping a ton of money into advertising and getting his name onto the ballot in every state. At least Michael Bloomberg has a political track record (mayor of NYC and big supporter of gun control groups, but also flip flops between parties) and is something of a name.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
144. Me either yet, of course. But we know Bloomberg is
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 08:38 AM
Jan 2019

no populist nation-burner. And in the end, he's likely to sincerely and energetically throw his support to the Democratic candidate to defeat what's happening on the right.

This one's promising right up front to try to bring together the fringes who buy the false equalization that both the Democrats and Republicans offer nothing but corruption. I've been watching for some time for someone who might be able to succeed at that, with what we now know would be considerable assistance from Putin. That makes him someone to keep an eye on until he fizzles out.

 

ehrnst

(32,640 posts)
150. That doesn't take into account vetting that has yet to be done, especially
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 11:47 AM
Jan 2019

on personal finances and tax returns.

Vetting on Sanders has really just started, and that will make this time around much different.

 

ehrnst

(32,640 posts)
154. It will be different this time after all the attention focused on DT's hidden returns
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 11:59 AM
Jan 2019

It will be impossible for any Democratic nominee to attempt to keep theirs hidden.

Even if a Dem nominee was to go the route of "married but filing separately" in an effort to keep certain assets and investments out of the public eye via transfer to their spouse, it would be impossible for said candidate to run on a campaign attacking DT's own opacity.

apnu

(8,722 posts)
162. Do these numbers presume Bernie cats stayed in the Dem party?
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 02:15 PM
Jan 2019

Bernie's insurgent campaign brought a lot of new people to the party, they flooded the caucus states, but couldn't work the room in primary states which is why Bernie under-performed in those states. Are they still in the party? I highly doubt it.

Like Bernie, they fled the party the second they realized they are one voice among many here and aren't in charge.

Plus Bernie only had to contend with Martin O'Malley on his left flank in 2015-2016, who never had any kind of support. Now its 2019 and the Democratic field is packed with competition, more women than we've ever seen before, and at least two of them are progressive super stars.

I don't see Bernie over-coming bad blood with actual Democrats (moderate, centrist, liberal, or progressive), and the very competitive crowd that's already thrown their hat in the ring.

NewJeffCT

(56,827 posts)
191. O'Malley wasn't on Sanders' left in 2016
Tue Jan 29, 2019, 09:45 AM
Jan 2019

and, the way I look at it, the other Dems in the race for 2020 are going to be vying for *some* of the Sanders vote and *all* of the Clinton vote.

George II

(67,782 posts)
166. Next year won't be the same as 2016 - both Biden and Sanders will be four years older...
Mon Jan 28, 2019, 02:29 PM
Jan 2019

...and there was talk back then that they were too old. There are also so many good candidates this time around (not that there weren't back then) My main worry is that some of the dozen or so good candidates will not decided to withdraw once they see that they're not getting the support they will need, and they'll have a negative effect on the three or four who rise to the top early.

 

MyNameGoesHere

(7,638 posts)
182. Now math is the friend of Sanders supporters?
Tue Jan 29, 2019, 07:18 AM
Jan 2019

Like when in March the math showed it was over? You didn't believe in math then did you?

NewJeffCT

(56,827 posts)
183. when did I say I was a Sanders supporter?
Tue Jan 29, 2019, 08:03 AM
Jan 2019

Last edited Tue Jan 29, 2019, 09:39 AM - Edit history (1)

Reading comprehension is not your strength now is it?



NewJeffCT

(56,827 posts)
188. Reading comprehension is not a strength of yours now, is it?
Tue Jan 29, 2019, 09:40 AM
Jan 2019

From my opening paragraph in the original post:

LiberalFighter

(50,506 posts)
197. Provided those other candidates are still there when the primaries start.
Tue Jan 29, 2019, 11:25 AM
Jan 2019

Also, with all those candidates possibly in the run means that the choices are not limited as they were in 2016. And they likely will consider there are better choices than Bernie.

I also doubt that he will have the same support from the groups supporting him in 2016. All of that will have an impact.

ZeroSomeBrains

(638 posts)
198. Bernie has a chance if he runs
Tue Jan 29, 2019, 11:43 AM
Jan 2019

He hasn't declared yet and may not run and support Warren. I don't think he will be destructive if he does run. I remember many times on network TV when he was defending Secretary Clinton and urging his supporters to vote for the democratic nominee after he conceded. I don't understand why people say he helped Trump win. Jimmy Dore and those stupid Bernie or Bust people deserve a lot of crap for their mistakes as well as those not filling out the top of their ballot or not voting. It seems like some would rather blame Bernie than the Republicans who shut down early voting and pass voter ID laws to disenfranchise people of color.

A lot of Bernie 2016 voters still like him and like everyone (outside of Bloomberg) running right now in the democratic field even if they disagree with some of them at times. I would put myself in that boat. Warren is my pick as of now but the hyperventilating from everyone on Bernie is stupid IMO.

bdamomma

(63,658 posts)
199. what a list
Tue Jan 29, 2019, 11:46 AM
Jan 2019

I hope we don't shoot ourselves in the foot. Just my opinion.

We need a good ticket and candidates who hit the ground running and to beat the repigs (that's if their party is still breathing).

samnsara

(17,572 posts)
201. well most of his followers are 4 yrs older now.. they have grown up and got jobs, married, kids...
Tue Jan 29, 2019, 11:52 AM
Jan 2019

..and he may not be such a fun ride anymore.

 

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)
202. Math says to me Sanders would likely lead to a trump -- or other GOPer -- candidate's victory.
Tue Jan 29, 2019, 11:55 AM
Jan 2019

Sorry.

It is early, so will reevaluation periodically.

NewJeffCT

(56,827 posts)
205. How many of those 2016 voters that think he is "damaged goods"
Tue Jan 29, 2019, 12:27 PM
Jan 2019

voted for Sanders in 2016? Other than a handful here on DU.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
210. I noticed I-Sanders is seeking photos ops with Ocasio.
Tue Jan 29, 2019, 04:18 PM
Jan 2019

That pretty much says it.

Damaged, all right, but not just with Democrats. Almost immediately after the 2016 primary, new splinter groups peeled off from his own splinter group, and those have been looking for a new leader to back ever since.

Interestingly, none has popped up. New Rep. Ocasio-Cortez, is the best they've come up with so far. Too young, though, so still looking.

hughee99

(16,113 posts)
226. If I understand correctly, the DNC passed a rule over the summer that says
Tue Feb 5, 2019, 01:51 PM
Feb 2019

That all candidates who run for the nomination HAVE to be democrats, and as I recall from 2016, the Sanders fans pointed out that there is no mechanism for Sanders to actually register as a Democrat in Vermont (other than to just say he is, and I’m not sure if that counts). Given that, I’m not sure how he can run in the Dem primary at all.

NewJeffCT

(56,827 posts)
231. Yes - I had posted elsewhere just today
Sun Feb 10, 2019, 01:01 PM
Feb 2019

that if his polling stays consistent, he's in a huge amount of trouble. If he gets a bump from an official announcement, it may help him out, but not sure it will be enough IF Biden enters the race

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