General Discussion

ProSense

(116,464 posts) Sun Sep 9, 2012, 10:06 PM Sep 2012

PPP Ohio: Obama 50, Romney 45

PPP Ohio: Obama 50, Romney 45

by dpinzow

A very quick diary regarding the first of PPP's polls this week. Obama leads Romney by 5 and is at the 50 percent mark. Partisan identification in the poll was D+4, which is almost exactly the partisan ID we normally see in that state.

<...>

Ohio voters believe the Democrats had a better convention than the GOP, by a 47-35 margin.

Romney has a -5 popularity in the state, at 44-49 favorable/unfavorable.

Polling confirms my suspicion that Obama was up at least 3-4 pts in Ohio (and was more favorable than I thought). This especially confirms the reasoning for Romney pulling out of PA and MI (because he's probably down almost 10 in each state, if not more than that).

Michelle Obama is 57/35 favorable/unfav

Bill Clinton is 57/34 favorable/unfav

6:41 PM PT: Update: 1,072 Ohio voters polled between September 7-9 (completely post DNC AND post-August jobs report)

6:51 PM PT: Here's the link

http://twitter.com/ppppolls

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/09/1129782/-PPP-Ohio-Obama-50-Romney-45#20120909184119

16 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

PPP Ohio: Obama 50, Romney 45 (Original Post) ProSense Sep 2012 OP

We have to be very careful here. It's not likley that Republicans make up only 37% of the SlimJimmy Sep 2012 #1

Actually in 2008 Dems led by +8 in party breakdown per PPP on twitter WI_DEM Sep 2012 #3

The rest of the free world had Dems up +4 in 2008. I guess PPP didn't get the memo. SlimJimmy Sep 2012 #16

I want +10 in Ohio. speedoo Sep 2012 #2

I've read he and his PACs are going to carpet bomb the airways. n/t cynatnite Sep 2012 #4

Mitt is out of Ohio currently. ProSense Sep 2012 #6

must be getting some IBS demosincebirth Sep 2012 #10

Five points is good ProSense Sep 2012 #5

And 50% is significant..... Wounded Bear Sep 2012 #8

If we win Ohio it's OVER! nt Quixote1818 Sep 2012 #7

I agree and Obama has been doing surprisingly well in Ohio polls all year WI_DEM Sep 2012 #9

Because the economy there is doing well. It will be hard for Obama to lose Ohio, especially Quixote1818 Sep 2012 #11

I live in Michigan and have seen 0 Romney Ryan bumper stickers. sarcasmo Sep 2012 #12

I thought he had a 9 pt advantage over Romney in OH. 5 is great, but 9 is better. nt Honeycombe8 Sep 2012 #13

Different polls. n/t ProSense Sep 2012 #14

actually it is closer to 9 grantcart Sep 2012 #15

SlimJimmy

(3,180 posts)

1. We have to be very careful here. It's not likley that Republicans make up only 37% of the

Reply to ProSense (Original post)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 10:28 PM

Sep 2012

electorate in Ohio. That might be a 2008 breakdown, but it's no longer true. It's much closer to even. But with that said, it still puts the president ahead by a point or two in a swing state. A good trend.

Partisan identification in the poll was D+4, which is almost exactly the partisan ID we normally see in that state.

Democrat ........................................................ 41%
Republican...................................................... 37%
Independent/Other.......................................... 22%

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)

3. Actually in 2008 Dems led by +8 in party breakdown per PPP on twitter

Reply to SlimJimmy (Reply #1)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 10:39 PM

Sep 2012

PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
Party breakdown of our Ohio survey is D+4, down from D+8 in Ohio in 2008 exit polls. Obama up by 5 anyway

SlimJimmy

(3,180 posts)

16. The rest of the free world had Dems up +4 in 2008. I guess PPP didn't get the memo.

Reply to WI_DEM (Reply #3)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 08:51 AM

Sep 2012

speedoo

(11,229 posts)

2. I want +10 in Ohio.

Reply to ProSense (Original post)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 10:33 PM

Sep 2012

Thee convention bounce is not permanent and Romney's advert. Dump is a concern.

cynatnite

(31,011 posts)

4. I've read he and his PACs are going to carpet bomb the airways. n/t

Reply to speedoo (Reply #2)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 10:42 PM

Sep 2012

ProSense

(116,464 posts)

6. Mitt is out of Ohio currently.

Reply to cynatnite (Reply #4)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 10:48 PM

Sep 2012

His internals must be bad.

demosincebirth

(12,529 posts)

10. must be getting some IBS

Reply to ProSense (Reply #6)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 11:09 PM

Sep 2012

ProSense

(116,464 posts)

5. Five points is good

Reply to speedoo (Reply #2)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 10:48 PM

Sep 2012

This is a likely voter poll, and Obama has a decent lead.

Wounded Bear

(58,598 posts)

8. And 50% is significant.....

Reply to ProSense (Reply #5)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 10:51 PM

Sep 2012

when those numbers get out of the 40s, it a great sign.

Quixote1818

(28,918 posts)

7. If we win Ohio it's OVER! nt

Reply to ProSense (Original post)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 10:49 PM

Sep 2012

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)

9. I agree and Obama has been doing surprisingly well in Ohio polls all year

Reply to Quixote1818 (Reply #7)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 10:54 PM

Sep 2012

Quixote1818

(28,918 posts)

11. Because the economy there is doing well. It will be hard for Obama to lose Ohio, especially

Reply to WI_DEM (Reply #9)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 11:12 PM

Sep 2012

since Romney has suggested he would have let the car companies go bankrupt. That has to be scary when you work in that industry or your community depends on it.

sarcasmo

(23,968 posts)

12. I live in Michigan and have seen 0 Romney Ryan bumper stickers.

Reply to ProSense (Original post)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 11:13 PM

Sep 2012

Honeycombe8

(37,648 posts)

13. I thought he had a 9 pt advantage over Romney in OH. 5 is great, but 9 is better. nt

Reply to ProSense (Original post)

Sun Sep 9, 2012, 11:16 PM

Sep 2012

ProSense

(116,464 posts)

14. Different polls. n/t

Reply to Honeycombe8 (Reply #13)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 12:26 AM

Sep 2012

grantcart

(53,061 posts)

15. actually it is closer to 9

Reply to Honeycombe8 (Reply #13)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 12:37 AM

Sep 2012

They are showing 5% undecided.

There are no decideds at the poll. As Silver has shown the split of the last deciders goes 3:5.:1.5 incumbent.

That would go to about 54:46:

Reply to this discussion