General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNate Silver's Forecast Now Shows Obama at 80.7% probability of a Win
With an update last night at 10:39, Obama now has an 80.7% probability of winning the election this November. Both the Electoral Vote forecast model and the %-Win model show steep inclines in favor of Obama since the beginning of the Conventions. Two different electoral vote scenarios break 12% probability and both have Obama winning over 300 electoral votes. Many other electoral vote scenarios that have Obama at 270 or more electoral votes have single digit probabilities. Only a couple of electoral vote scenarios break 1% probability where Obama does not have 270 electoral votes. All swing states show a 75% or greater probability of Obama winning that state with the exception of Florida and North Caroline which is now at a 66.9% of an Obama win and a 56.5% chance of a Romney win, respectively.
For detailed analysis see: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Dalai_1
(1,301 posts)rgbecker
(4,820 posts)If the numbers can jump from 65% to 80% in a week, they can just as easily decline.
But, by God, things are looking good.
Inuca
(8,945 posts)OTOH no week from now on until Nov. will be normal.
Cosmocat
(14,559 posts)is a MAJOR economic or security event.
That is what we have to cross our fingers on.
The bottom line, as much as the Rs and "liberal media" want people to believe that we are a great depression, we are not. Things are tough in some ways, but we still are living lives of relative comfort and security.
Outside of the deranged 45% that vote R regularly, most people like BO and don't like Romney. Just not enough "bad" going on to fire the guy they like, that is doing a reasonably good job (IMO, a REALLY good job, but to the average Joe it will be reasonably) for a guy they don't really like.
IF we don't have any major issues, we gotta hope they find a way to hold the Senate and push back on the numbers in the House a good bit.
valerief
(53,235 posts)can change it. The courts muscling in on the election in favor of the Repubs can change it.
And, of course, old-fashioned voter suppression tactics can change it.
Rs are making a full out effort to game this election as best they can.
But, it won't matter with the presidential. Again, minus a major economic/security issue, BO is going to win by large enough margins in enough states to win the electoral college pretty clearly.
I live in PA and am well versed on what is the worst voter ID law of them all. It WILL keep some people from voting, but not enough to cost the state. I also work my poll, and I know that a vote is a vote, at least in one precinct in Pa.
I do think they will be successful in keeping/getting some house seats because of all this, however.
valerief
(53,235 posts)electronic voting--I'll believe you.
Of course, I hope the prez will get re-elected. I even let my imagination go crazy and envision a progressive Congress. But that's expecting too much. That would lead to democracy.
Cosmocat
(14,559 posts)it would be niave to think otherswise.
They cheat in every other possible way, so I am sure they do steal votes in some isolated places.
But, we had 2006 and 2008 since the implementation of these machines and Ds got big wins those years.
I know for a fact, we hand count the paper ballots to compare to the electronic votes, and they square perfectly at our poll.
We do have to stay vigilent, and I have no doubt SOMEWHERE they manage to steal votes and it might effect some local races.
But, it is not near big enough to effect the presidential the way it looks right now.
berni_mccoy
(23,018 posts)We'll see if things hold. Time will tell.
speedoo
(11,229 posts)I've been following elections for about 50 years, and he is the worst I have seen.
That should make you less nervous.
CanonRay
(14,088 posts)even as the MSM keeps churning out "tight race" memes
berni_mccoy
(23,018 posts)3feetofsnow
(56 posts)says Yogi Berra.
cormac69
(8 posts)want to see romney dip below 40 ..must put the stake through the heart of the beast!