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berni_mccoy

(23,018 posts)
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 07:54 AM Sep 2012

Nate Silver's Forecast Now Shows Obama at 80.7% probability of a Win

With an update last night at 10:39, Obama now has an 80.7% probability of winning the election this November. Both the Electoral Vote forecast model and the %-Win model show steep inclines in favor of Obama since the beginning of the Conventions. Two different electoral vote scenarios break 12% probability and both have Obama winning over 300 electoral votes. Many other electoral vote scenarios that have Obama at 270 or more electoral votes have single digit probabilities. Only a couple of electoral vote scenarios break 1% probability where Obama does not have 270 electoral votes. All swing states show a 75% or greater probability of Obama winning that state with the exception of Florida and North Caroline which is now at a 66.9% of an Obama win and a 56.5% chance of a Romney win, respectively.

For detailed analysis see: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

14 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Nate Silver's Forecast Now Shows Obama at 80.7% probability of a Win (Original Post) berni_mccoy Sep 2012 OP
K&R n/t Dalai_1 Sep 2012 #1
Makes me nervous. rgbecker Sep 2012 #2
It was not a "normal" week Inuca Sep 2012 #3
Only thing that changes the course of this election Cosmocat Sep 2012 #4
No, it's not the only thing. Massive election fraud via vote flipping valerief Sep 2012 #9
Yes/no Cosmocat Sep 2012 #10
When voting results match exit poll results--like they used to before valerief Sep 2012 #11
I am sure it does happen Cosmocat Sep 2012 #12
It's actually gone from 66-80 in two weeks, but I know what you are saying berni_mccoy Sep 2012 #6
Romney is a horrible candidate. speedoo Sep 2012 #13
I've been watching it tick up every day CanonRay Sep 2012 #5
MSM is now saying Obama has significant lead. berni_mccoy Sep 2012 #7
"It aint over till it's over" 3feetofsnow Sep 2012 #8
still uneasy cormac69 Sep 2012 #14

rgbecker

(4,820 posts)
2. Makes me nervous.
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 08:16 AM
Sep 2012

If the numbers can jump from 65% to 80% in a week, they can just as easily decline.

But, by God, things are looking good.

Cosmocat

(14,559 posts)
4. Only thing that changes the course of this election
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 08:56 AM
Sep 2012

is a MAJOR economic or security event.

That is what we have to cross our fingers on.

The bottom line, as much as the Rs and "liberal media" want people to believe that we are a great depression, we are not. Things are tough in some ways, but we still are living lives of relative comfort and security.

Outside of the deranged 45% that vote R regularly, most people like BO and don't like Romney. Just not enough "bad" going on to fire the guy they like, that is doing a reasonably good job (IMO, a REALLY good job, but to the average Joe it will be reasonably) for a guy they don't really like.

IF we don't have any major issues, we gotta hope they find a way to hold the Senate and push back on the numbers in the House a good bit.

valerief

(53,235 posts)
9. No, it's not the only thing. Massive election fraud via vote flipping
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 09:59 AM
Sep 2012

can change it. The courts muscling in on the election in favor of the Repubs can change it.

And, of course, old-fashioned voter suppression tactics can change it.

Cosmocat

(14,559 posts)
10. Yes/no
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 10:12 AM
Sep 2012

Rs are making a full out effort to game this election as best they can.

But, it won't matter with the presidential. Again, minus a major economic/security issue, BO is going to win by large enough margins in enough states to win the electoral college pretty clearly.

I live in PA and am well versed on what is the worst voter ID law of them all. It WILL keep some people from voting, but not enough to cost the state. I also work my poll, and I know that a vote is a vote, at least in one precinct in Pa.

I do think they will be successful in keeping/getting some house seats because of all this, however.



valerief

(53,235 posts)
11. When voting results match exit poll results--like they used to before
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 12:38 PM
Sep 2012

electronic voting--I'll believe you.

Of course, I hope the prez will get re-elected. I even let my imagination go crazy and envision a progressive Congress. But that's expecting too much. That would lead to democracy.

Cosmocat

(14,559 posts)
12. I am sure it does happen
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 01:11 PM
Sep 2012

it would be niave to think otherswise.

They cheat in every other possible way, so I am sure they do steal votes in some isolated places.

But, we had 2006 and 2008 since the implementation of these machines and Ds got big wins those years.

I know for a fact, we hand count the paper ballots to compare to the electronic votes, and they square perfectly at our poll.

We do have to stay vigilent, and I have no doubt SOMEWHERE they manage to steal votes and it might effect some local races.

But, it is not near big enough to effect the presidential the way it looks right now.

 

berni_mccoy

(23,018 posts)
6. It's actually gone from 66-80 in two weeks, but I know what you are saying
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 09:19 AM
Sep 2012

We'll see if things hold. Time will tell.

speedoo

(11,229 posts)
13. Romney is a horrible candidate.
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 01:25 PM
Sep 2012

I've been following elections for about 50 years, and he is the worst I have seen.

That should make you less nervous.

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