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DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts) Mon Sep 10, 2012, 09:30 AM Sep 2012

Conservatives Comparing This Election To 1980 And 1988 Are Monumental Fails

The contention that Saint Ronny and George Herbert Walker Bush snatched victory out of the jaws of defeat may or not be true. No astute observer ever believed Dukakis' seventeen point post convention lead was real and every astute observer knew America was in a much worse mood in the Summer of 1980 when America looked like a helpless giant unable to impose its will and get its hostages back from a Third World nation while the cost of everything was going through the roof

In any case the electorate was fundamentally different because of demography. If the 1980 and 1988 electorates looked like the 2008 electorate in terms of race Carter would have probably eked out a plurality win and Dukakis would have won.

Think about that for a minute...

The Republicans are being buried under a demographic tidal wave. There just aren't enough angry, bitter, insecure, and resentful white males to win a general election.

12 replies

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Conservatives Comparing This Election To 1980 And 1988 Are Monumental Fails (Original Post) DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2012 OP

Oh it is like 1988, I've said that for months Mutiny In Heaven Sep 2012 #1

All You Have To Do Is Change The Race Of The Voters To 2008 DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2012 #2

This is absolutely nothing like 1980. It's somewhat like 1988. yardwork Sep 2012 #3

Demography Is Destiny DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2012 #4

The Republicans have planned poorly. yardwork Sep 2012 #8

2004 ag_dude Sep 2012 #5

If The 04 Electorate Looked Like The 08 Electorate Kerry Would Have Won Too DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2012 #7

If Kerry would have been black, the 04 electorate WOULD have looked like the 08 electorate. ag_dude Sep 2012 #10

Bingo ProudToBeBlueInRhody Sep 2012 #12

It's actually starting to look more like 1941 with people understanding we need to stay the course JaneyVee Sep 2012 #6

That's an interesting analogy. yardwork Sep 2012 #9

Apparently "stay the course" includes keeping the GOP in control of Congress davidn3600 Sep 2012 #11

Mutiny In Heaven

(550 posts)

1. Oh it is like 1988, I've said that for months

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 09:42 AM

Sep 2012

Romney has just never been shown to have a 17pt lead.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

2. All You Have To Do Is Change The Race Of The Voters To 2008

Reply to Mutiny In Heaven (Reply #1)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 09:44 AM

Sep 2012

And Carter and Dukakis both probably eke out wins.

If I'm a Republican I'm concerned.

yardwork

(61,588 posts)

3. This is absolutely nothing like 1980. It's somewhat like 1988.

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 09:47 AM

Sep 2012

Romney is nothing like Reagan. If anything, Obama is more like Reagan - focused on positives, saying things that make people smile. The Republicans only wish that this were like 1980. In their dreams.

There are some parallels with 1988 but the personalities of Obama and George Herbert Walker Bush are quite different.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

4. Demography Is Destiny

Reply to yardwork (Reply #3)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 09:52 AM

Sep 2012

Dukakis received 40% of the white vote and lost. If Obama gets 40% of the white vote he wins. In 2008 Obama received 43% of the white vote and won a landslide.

There are some Democratic analysts who say Obama can win with only 38% of the white vote if the 2012 electorate has the same demographic character as the 2008 one.

Our base is bigger. That's why Republicans are coming up with all kinds of impediments to them voting.

yardwork

(61,588 posts)

8. The Republicans have planned poorly.

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #4)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 01:25 PM

Sep 2012

In a short time the majority of the people in the U.S. will be non-white. What have the Republicans done to prepare for this eventuality? Behaved in the most racist way imaginable. I hope that people remember.

ag_dude

(562 posts)

5. 2004

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 10:10 AM

Sep 2012

But flip parties.

The republicans are the ones running an awkward guy that will say anything he needs to get a vote with their main selling point being "anybody but..."

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

7. If The 04 Electorate Looked Like The 08 Electorate Kerry Would Have Won Too

Reply to ag_dude (Reply #5)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 12:15 PM

Sep 2012

You have to go back to the 59-41 Reagan 84 blowout for a win and then even would have won by only 52%-48%.

That's how desperate the Republican's position is.

ag_dude

(562 posts)

10. If Kerry would have been black, the 04 electorate WOULD have looked like the 08 electorate.

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #7)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 05:09 PM

Sep 2012

There's sort of a chicken or the egg thing going on with what you are speaking of.

ProudToBeBlueInRhody

(16,399 posts)

12. Bingo

Reply to ag_dude (Reply #5)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 05:28 PM

Sep 2012

You can't beat something with nothing. All respect to John Kerry, but he was as awkward at times as Rmoney is.

JaneyVee

(19,877 posts)

6. It's actually starting to look more like 1941 with people understanding we need to stay the course

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 10:16 AM

Sep 2012

with this President through our darkest days.

yardwork

(61,588 posts)

9. That's an interesting analogy.

Reply to JaneyVee (Reply #6)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 01:27 PM

Sep 2012

davidn3600

(6,342 posts)

11. Apparently "stay the course" includes keeping the GOP in control of Congress

Reply to JaneyVee (Reply #6)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 05:25 PM

Sep 2012

They may even gain control of the Senate. Even Scott Brown in Massachusetts looks like he may be re-elected.

Unlike 2008, Obama is not having much effect on races down the ticket. The gains Democrats made in Republican territory in 2006 and 2008 is drifting away.

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