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onehandle

(51,122 posts)
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 12:42 PM Sep 2012

Why Experts Say Obama’s In For A Rough Four Years — Even If He Wins Big

If President Obama wins reelection in November, it will be on a platform that promises higher taxes on top earners, tax reform built on top of a significantly higher revenue base and full implementation of his health care and financial reform laws. But if he makes good on any or all of them, it won’t be because Republicans bend to the will of voters and accept his victory as a mandate to govern.

Despite the clear differences between the candidates, Republicans are telegraphing their intent to continue their fight against Obama’s agenda into his second term. Some have brazenly used their own intransigence as an argument for a Mitt Romney presidency: Elect the Republican, or we’ll keep the country ungovernable.

This cuts against a basic to-the-victor-go-the-spoils understanding of democracy. But in a presidential system it’s nothing new and isn’t even all that rare. Politicians and pundits speak and write of electoral mandates as if presidents, like prime ministers of parliaments, were masters of their own policy destinies. But in the U.S. governing mandates are almost always illusory, which means even popular presidents, elected by wide margins, still have to fight like hell to deliver their agendas. And, troublingly, history shows the losers suffer few consequences for subverting voter will.

“Usually talk of mandates is just empty words and false claims,” says James Stimson, a political science professor at University of North Carolina.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/09/obama-romney-political-mandate.php

President Obama will basically be a lame duck with a Veto for four years, unless lazy Obama voters vote Democratic downticket.

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Why Experts Say Obama’s In For A Rough Four Years — Even If He Wins Big (Original Post) onehandle Sep 2012 OP
That's why the Senate and Congressional races are so important this time, too klook Sep 2012 #1
Abso ... F'ing ... lutely! 1StrongBlackMan Sep 2012 #7
We need to make this election a referendum on the obstructionist in Congress. liberal N proud Sep 2012 #2
The Republican brand needs to be destroyed Ebadlun Sep 2012 #3
Bingo: give them a reason to turn out on election day and cast their ballot to destroy Vincardog Sep 2012 #4
Your conclusion is correct. jonthebru Sep 2012 #5
Yep. And if Obama voters has shown up in 2010... onehandle Sep 2012 #6
Yep ... 1StrongBlackMan Sep 2012 #8
So ... VOTE DOWNTICKET FOR DEMS, DAMMIT!! Bake Sep 2012 #9
I don't understand why Obama doesn't change his ads to target Republicans generally. denverbill Sep 2012 #10
I've been wondering that Ebadlun Sep 2012 #11
That won't help most vulnerable candidates loyalsister Sep 2012 #19
It's up to the non-lazy Democrats MineralMan Sep 2012 #12
"Lazy Obama Voters..." Blue Idaho Sep 2012 #13
+ LiberalAndProud Sep 2012 #15
It's true. Zoeisright Sep 2012 #16
Well, local judge election nadinbrzezinski Sep 2012 #20
republicans will have to decide if continued obstructionism (which just let to defeat) and pampango Sep 2012 #14
that depends if a big win carries some of Congress with it hfojvt Sep 2012 #17
Obstructionism, like “austerity”, is neither good policy nor good politics. Viva_Daddy Sep 2012 #18
This is by design of course. But it still needs to be stressed. joshcryer Sep 2012 #21
The House will be tough thanks to gerrymandering dsc Sep 2012 #22

klook

(12,151 posts)
1. That's why the Senate and Congressional races are so important this time, too
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 12:45 PM
Sep 2012

The districts and states where there's a chance to flip an "R" to a "D" are where we really need to focus our energies.

 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
7. Abso ... F'ing ... lutely!
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 12:56 PM
Sep 2012

I still don't understand why the DNC, if not the Democratic SuperPac's have not invested in a "This, since Day-One, is what the gop has done for the past 3 1/2 years and voting Democratic top to bottom can stop it" campaign!

liberal N proud

(60,332 posts)
2. We need to make this election a referendum on the obstructionist in Congress.
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 12:45 PM
Sep 2012

Its up to the American people to realize that the Republican leadership in the house intends to keep the same path.

Ebadlun

(336 posts)
3. The Republican brand needs to be destroyed
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 12:47 PM
Sep 2012

until no sane person will admit to voting for them.

They haven't really been punished for their antics of the last two years. I don't know what can be done though.

Vincardog

(20,234 posts)
4. Bingo: give them a reason to turn out on election day and cast their ballot to destroy
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 12:51 PM
Sep 2012

the idea of "conservatism".

jonthebru

(1,034 posts)
5. Your conclusion is correct.
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 12:53 PM
Sep 2012

If the Senate is kept and the Democrats win the House Our President will be able to accomplish things.

 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
8. Yep ...
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 12:59 PM
Sep 2012

But that's "I Told Ya So" thinking that we can't afford; no one likes to be reminded when you told them they were screwing up, especially after it becomes clear to them they screwed up.

denverbill

(11,489 posts)
10. I don't understand why Obama doesn't change his ads to target Republicans generally.
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 01:34 PM
Sep 2012

He needs a Democratic Congress to get anything done. Instead of just going to get Romney defeated, he needs to change his ads to encourage voters to vote a straight ticket.

Ebadlun

(336 posts)
11. I've been wondering that
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 01:37 PM
Sep 2012

Not just now, but over the last four years. In 2010 he seemed almost to forget there the midterms were going to happen, and going on the Daily Show was too little, too late.

loyalsister

(13,390 posts)
19. That won't help most vulnerable candidates
Tue Sep 11, 2012, 12:53 AM
Sep 2012

In fact Claire McCaskill's add talks about how she stood up to President Obama.

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
12. It's up to the non-lazy Democrats
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 01:41 PM
Sep 2012

to make sure the lazy ones show up and vote across the board for Democrats. That's a job each one of us had.

If each of us takes just one Democratic voter to the polls with us, we double our vote. If we convince even more to go and vote, we can multiply our own vote many times.

If we do not do that, we will continue to falter with a lousy Congress and state legislatures.

I'm in 100% in GOTV. I hope everyone on DU is equally committed.

GOTV 2012! There's your Hope and Change.

Zoeisright

(8,339 posts)
16. It's true.
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 01:50 PM
Sep 2012

Why people would vote for President Obama and then a repuke on the same ballot is beyond me. It's like trying to jump up and weighing yourself down with a two-ton anchor. It is lazy - intellectually lazy.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
20. Well, local judge election
Tue Sep 11, 2012, 12:56 AM
Sep 2012

Due to prop 14, here are my choices...

Moderate republican or tea party crazee.

Some people have those choices.

pampango

(24,692 posts)
14. republicans will have to decide if continued obstructionism (which just let to defeat) and
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 01:48 PM
Sep 2012

further investment in tea party policies is how they want to proceed for another 4 years.

Like any losing party they will have an internal battle over the whether the party was too extreme to appeal to the middle or not extreme enough to motivate the base. It will be an interesting battle to watch.

Frankly I have not seen much indication that many republicans see the signs that US demographics are changing permanently. A whites-only oriented party is going to have a very, very difficult time getting elected in the future.

I think they will continue to pursue an obstructionist policy which will be bad for the country and even worse for the long term prospects of their party. It would take some intelligence and leadership from somewhere in their party to keep that from happening. Maybe if tea party candidates get blown out of the water in November that might happen, but it does not seem very likely.

hfojvt

(37,573 posts)
17. that depends if a big win carries some of Congress with it
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 02:30 PM
Sep 2012

and also if that momentum can carry in to 2014, or if, again, there will be a pushback.

joshcryer

(62,265 posts)
21. This is by design of course. But it still needs to be stressed.
Tue Sep 11, 2012, 12:57 AM
Sep 2012

The Democracy we have is basically designed to be obstructionist and slow change. In a fascist society it'd be easy enough to implement lots of things by decree. But the President is not a dictator.

The real problem is that Congress and the Senate no longer represent Americans. Apportionment and all.

dsc

(52,152 posts)
22. The House will be tough thanks to gerrymandering
Tue Sep 11, 2012, 02:22 AM
Sep 2012

To take my state as an example, Obama may well win here in NC, he also may well lose, it will be close either way. He won in 08 by less than 1 percent. If he wins with the same margin as in 08, he will win 3 of 13 Congressional districts. He will lose the other 10 by at least 5 points each. I think we will likely win four of those districts and we will win at most 5. It has nothing to do with lazy or non lazy Obama voters. In point of fact both Kissel and McIntyre will certainly do better than Obama does in their districts but they will have to do way, way better than he does.

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