Obama is right where he wants to be

By Steve Benen

A month ago, there was a fair amount of bravado in Republican circles, with many in the GOP cautiously optimistic the presidential race. The swagger is now gone -- Politico quoted "top advisers to Mitt Romney" who conceded that President Obama is the favorite. The same piece said internal Republican polls show Ohio "clearly" leaning in the president's favor.

Now that the dust has settled on both major-party conventions, we can also take a look at two full weeks' worth of Gallup tracking data.



That straight, boring line on the left half of the chart? That's the period around the Republican convention -- which showed no bounce for Romney at all. As things currently stand, Gallup shows Obama up by five, which is hardly an insurmountable lead, but is the larger advantage either candidate has enjoyed in the last 11 weeks. Other polls are pointing in a similar direction.

With a growing sense of dread in Republican circles, the Romney campaign's pollster published a memo this morning, urging everyone to just calm down. Neil Newhouse -- yes, that Neil Newhouse -- acknowledged Obama's lead, but dismissed the president's advantage as "a sugar high" that won't last.

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http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2012/09/10/13783635-obama-is-right-where-he-wants-to-be

Having fun with Romney campaign's 'DON'T PANIC!' memo

by kos

How do you know a campaign is panicking? When they send out memos urging people not to panic. Let's take a look at this memo, and laugh at them.

ROMNEY/RYAN
MEMORANDUM
TO: Interested Parties
RE: State of the Race
DATE: September 10, 2012

Don't get too worked up about the latest polling. While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly. The reality of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama Presidency, and Mitt Romney will win this race.

What's this about "conventionS" giving voters a sugar high? Last time I looked, Romney got a combined 1.9-point bounce after his convention. Obama is at 5.5 points and counting. Only one convention gave voters a sugar high.
But this is a bit confusing—haven't they spent the last three days arguing that President Barack Obama's convention speech was a big disaster?

In his acceptance speech, President Obama did not offer any solutions for the millions of Americans unemployed or underemployed. But his convention speech was not the only big letdown to voters, as Americans also dealt with yet another dismal jobs report last week.

Ah, there we go. Obama's speech was a "big letdown to voters." But if it was such a letdown, how could it give those same voters a sugar high?

Don't expect explanations or logic, just a lot more nonsense, below the fold.

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http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/10/1129953/-Having-fun-with-Romney-campaign-s-DON-T-PANIC-memo

a hidden tidbit in CNN/ORC poll

by teacherken

whether republican convention made you more/less likely to vote for Romney

Courtesy of No More Mister Nice Blog:

more likely 36%
less likely 46%

net effect a negative 10%

first time a convention has made people LESS likely to vote for presidential candidate

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/10/1130005/-a-hidden-tidbit-in-CNN-ORC-poll