The problem with the good poll numbers
A lot of threads here about how foolish it is to be cautious about the new poll numbers; I don't want to post this is every thread, so I'll just post it here:
The first problem with the good poll numbers is the effect they could have on the youth vote. Young voters still support Obama, but without the fervor they exhibited in 2008. If we're going to win, we need them back in the voting booth this time around; but, if they're convinced that Obama is going to win anyway, that's less likely to happen.
The second problem is similar to that one, but more specific. The GOP is going to try to win this one through voter suppression in swing states. We cannot afford to have anyone in a swing state thinking, "voting's going to be a hassle this year, and Obama's going to win anyway, so I'll just save myself the trouble and stay home."
Complacency suppresses turnout, period. Why do you think the GOP has been owning its poor position so publicly? It's wrong -- and more than wrong, dangerous -- for us to be dancing in the endzone when the game isn't over.