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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNine things we learned from CNN's latest poll
by kos
How much can we learn from one dinky CNN poll (PDF)? Let's count the ways!
1. Obama is winning
Pres. Barack Obama and vulture capitalist Mitt Romney were tied 48-48 prior to the conventions. Obama is now up 52-46, comfortably over 50 percent with a six-point convention bump.
Also, the poll's big gap between likely and registered voters has almost disappeared. While LVs were 48-48 two weeks ago, the RVs were 52-45 Obama. Now, with Obama leading 52-46 with LVs, his lead with RVs is just a tad higher at 53-45.
What that means is that base Democratic constituencies who previously didn't want to vote now are saying that they will.
2. Democratic voter intensity improved, opposite for GOP
Adding these columns up, 82 percent of Democrats are enthusiastic, compared to 76 percent of Republicans. And while our convention moved our Dems mostly up the scale of enthusiasm (look at those "not at all enthusiastic" numbers), the GOP apparently went backwards.
3. Obama became more popular, Romney less so
Obama received a dramatic 12-point boost, similar to what Gallup's daily tracker saw. Romney lost an equally dramatic nine points. Romney tried to remake himself at his convention, Democrats effectively shut that shit down.
4. Our party is also more popular
Dems are up eight, Republicans are down two. That won't make Congressional Republicans rest any easier at night.
<...>
7. The GOP's laughable efforts to woo women failed
Pre-convention, 56 percent of likely voters said Obama was more "in touch with the problems facing women today," compared to 39 percent for Romney. They trotted out Ann Romney to say "I love women!" several times, hoping it would put a dent in those numbers. It didn't.
Obama now leds 59-34 on that question.
- more -
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/10/1130079/-Nine-things-we-learned-from-CNN-s-latest-poll
CNN poll on Medicare: Mitt moving in wrong direction, President Obama up by double digits
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021314311
Note:
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)There was little reason for the Dems to act excited during the GOP primaries. We were basically sitting at home watching these nut jobs play out their "leader of the free world" fantasies.
Now, after the conventions ... the 2012 elections, and the choices are CLEAR.
And as a result, Dems are very Enthusiastic because we can not let the nut job MItt Romney become President.
Not hard to understand.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)Arugula Latte
(50,566 posts)DemocratsForProgress
(545 posts)Good summary.
Historic NY
(37,449 posts)8. Voters know Obama will win.
59 percent of likely voters think Obama will win, 37 percent of dead-enders pretend Romney will. The more that Romney voters think Obama will win, the less they'll do to help out his campaign. Our task now isn't to win the election, it's to crush the GOP, and we do so by smashing their morale to pieces.
Qutzupalotl
(14,289 posts)they might not show up to vote their straight-party vote. I think this improves our chances with the House and Senate, if only slightly. It's worth doubling down on this anyway.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,223 posts)then that's not far from the truth. It was like watching a wake. You couldn't but wonder where the body was laid out. And it made me
calimary
(81,139 posts)If they think there's no use, then why the hell get up out of the easy chair when it's just easier to stay sedentary and let inertia be your friend. So if the nagging worry starts stalking them, now they're having to expend energy bucking themselves up and denying that what's slowly starting to seep into the nation's pores is another inconvenient truth. And when you're busy trying to fix the roof during hurricane season, you don't have as much time or energy to focus on sabotaging your enemy. The republi-CONs will always find SOME time and energy because that's just who they are. But they can't make it their sole focus. They've got to play some pretty bigtime defense also. And they would rather not have that distraction.
But - as they loudly proclaimed a couple of weeks ago, they built it!!!!
Ruby the Liberal
(26,219 posts)If the poll range is 9/7 - 9/12 -- how are we seeing numbers on the 10th?
ProSense
(116,464 posts)Ruby the Liberal
(26,219 posts)I knew I had to be missing something obvious.
Excuse my stupidity, carry on.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)I had to do a double take.
pinboy3niner
(53,339 posts)Ruby the Liberal
(26,219 posts)calimary
(81,139 posts)What's nicest is that this low-level murmur of a drumbeat is starting around the romney campaign - that they're in trouble. That's REALLY nice! If that sinks in, that will discourage THEIR voters, NOT OURS! If they think it's a foregone conclusion that Obama may have this locked up despite their best efforts, especially with early voting starting soon, some of them will shrug and decide to sit this one out. Which will make the polls a self-fulfilling prophesy. Which will also hurt them down-ticket at a time when OUR side needs to make gains!
That said, DO NOT, I repeat, DO NOT get complacent!!!
Remember what Mad-Eye Moody always told Harry Potter: "CONSTANT VIGILANCE!!!!"
We do NOT have this won yet, and the koch/adelson/rove carpet-bombing hasn't begun yet. They're still gonna try to buy this election if they still think they have a chance. But at some point I imagine the big-bucks guys may have second thoughts if they think it's becoming clear that they're flushing a coupla billion dollars down the crapper. These guys LOVE their money. They worship and adore it. It's their top priority and their identity and their macho and their Alpha-status and their power and, among the men, their money automatically confers upon them some complementary dick size. And they DO NOT like flushing it down the crapper. OR betting bigtime on a loser.
After all, how would it look?