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ProSense

(116,464 posts)
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 06:21 PM Sep 2012

Nine things we learned from CNN's latest poll

Nine things we learned from CNN's latest poll

by kos

How much can we learn from one dinky CNN poll (PDF)? Let's count the ways!

1. Obama is winning
Pres. Barack Obama and vulture capitalist Mitt Romney were tied 48-48 prior to the conventions. Obama is now up 52-46, comfortably over 50 percent with a six-point convention bump.

Also, the poll's big gap between likely and registered voters has almost disappeared. While LVs were 48-48 two weeks ago, the RVs were 52-45 Obama. Now, with Obama leading 52-46 with LVs, his lead with RVs is just a tad higher at 53-45.

What that means is that base Democratic constituencies who previously didn't want to vote now are saying that they will.

2. Democratic voter intensity improved, opposite for GOP


Adding these columns up, 82 percent of Democrats are enthusiastic, compared to 76 percent of Republicans. And while our convention moved our Dems mostly up the scale of enthusiasm (look at those "not at all enthusiastic" numbers), the GOP apparently went backwards.

3. Obama became more popular, Romney less so


Obama received a dramatic 12-point boost, similar to what Gallup's daily tracker saw. Romney lost an equally dramatic nine points. Romney tried to remake himself at his convention, Democrats effectively shut that shit down.

4. Our party is also more popular



Dems are up eight, Republicans are down two. That won't make Congressional Republicans rest any easier at night.

<...>

7. The GOP's laughable efforts to woo women failed

Pre-convention, 56 percent of likely voters said Obama was more "in touch with the problems facing women today," compared to 39 percent for Romney. They trotted out Ann Romney to say "I love women!" several times, hoping it would put a dent in those numbers. It didn't.

Obama now leds 59-34 on that question.

- more -

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/10/1130079/-Nine-things-we-learned-from-CNN-s-latest-poll


CNN poll on Medicare: Mitt moving in wrong direction, President Obama up by double digits
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021314311






Note:

Kos Media, LLC Site content may be used for any purpose without explicit permission unless otherwise specified


16 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Nine things we learned from CNN's latest poll (Original Post) ProSense Sep 2012 OP
Side note on the Enthusiasm thing ... JoePhilly Sep 2012 #1
Mitt was upstaged by a chair. n/t ProSense Sep 2012 #3
Well, to be fair, the chair was warmer, smarter and more compassionate than Mitt. Arugula Latte Sep 2012 #13
Exactly! DemocratsForProgress Sep 2012 #12
I'm all over number 8. Historic NY Sep 2012 #2
If we can discourage Republicans Qutzupalotl Sep 2012 #4
"and we do so by smashing their morale to pieces." If anyone watched Scumborough this a.m., Tarheel_Dem Sep 2012 #5
GREAT to hear! If they're demoralized, they're somewhat more likely not to bother voting. calimary Sep 2012 #15
Looking good, but help me understand something. Ruby the Liberal Sep 2012 #6
It's Sept 7 - Sept 9, 2012 n/t ProSense Sep 2012 #7
Doh! 9/7-9/12 is Sept 7-9, 2012. Ruby the Liberal Sep 2012 #8
It's awkward. ProSense Sep 2012 #9
We just thought you were psychic pinboy3niner Sep 2012 #10
Or hoped! Ruby the Liberal Sep 2012 #11
Kick! calimary Sep 2012 #14
Kick! n/t ProSense Sep 2012 #16

JoePhilly

(27,787 posts)
1. Side note on the Enthusiasm thing ...
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 06:26 PM
Sep 2012

There was little reason for the Dems to act excited during the GOP primaries. We were basically sitting at home watching these nut jobs play out their "leader of the free world" fantasies.

Now, after the conventions ... the 2012 elections, and the choices are CLEAR.

And as a result, Dems are very Enthusiastic because we can not let the nut job MItt Romney become President.

Not hard to understand.

Historic NY

(37,449 posts)
2. I'm all over number 8.
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 06:29 PM
Sep 2012

8. Voters know Obama will win.

59 percent of likely voters think Obama will win, 37 percent of dead-enders pretend Romney will. The more that Romney voters think Obama will win, the less they'll do to help out his campaign. Our task now isn't to win the election, it's to crush the GOP, and we do so by smashing their morale to pieces.

Qutzupalotl

(14,289 posts)
4. If we can discourage Republicans
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 06:46 PM
Sep 2012

they might not show up to vote their straight-party vote. I think this improves our chances with the House and Senate, if only slightly. It's worth doubling down on this anyway.

Tarheel_Dem

(31,223 posts)
5. "and we do so by smashing their morale to pieces." If anyone watched Scumborough this a.m.,
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 06:48 PM
Sep 2012

then that's not far from the truth. It was like watching a wake. You couldn't but wonder where the body was laid out. And it made me

calimary

(81,139 posts)
15. GREAT to hear! If they're demoralized, they're somewhat more likely not to bother voting.
Tue Sep 11, 2012, 12:09 AM
Sep 2012

If they think there's no use, then why the hell get up out of the easy chair when it's just easier to stay sedentary and let inertia be your friend. So if the nagging worry starts stalking them, now they're having to expend energy bucking themselves up and denying that what's slowly starting to seep into the nation's pores is another inconvenient truth. And when you're busy trying to fix the roof during hurricane season, you don't have as much time or energy to focus on sabotaging your enemy. The republi-CONs will always find SOME time and energy because that's just who they are. But they can't make it their sole focus. They've got to play some pretty bigtime defense also. And they would rather not have that distraction.

But - as they loudly proclaimed a couple of weeks ago, they built it!!!!

Ruby the Liberal

(26,219 posts)
6. Looking good, but help me understand something.
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 07:02 PM
Sep 2012

If the poll range is 9/7 - 9/12 -- how are we seeing numbers on the 10th?

Ruby the Liberal

(26,219 posts)
8. Doh! 9/7-9/12 is Sept 7-9, 2012.
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 07:46 PM
Sep 2012

I knew I had to be missing something obvious.



Excuse my stupidity, carry on.

calimary

(81,139 posts)
14. Kick!
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 10:25 PM
Sep 2012

What's nicest is that this low-level murmur of a drumbeat is starting around the romney campaign - that they're in trouble. That's REALLY nice! If that sinks in, that will discourage THEIR voters, NOT OURS! If they think it's a foregone conclusion that Obama may have this locked up despite their best efforts, especially with early voting starting soon, some of them will shrug and decide to sit this one out. Which will make the polls a self-fulfilling prophesy. Which will also hurt them down-ticket at a time when OUR side needs to make gains!

That said, DO NOT, I repeat, DO NOT get complacent!!!

Remember what Mad-Eye Moody always told Harry Potter: "CONSTANT VIGILANCE!!!!"

We do NOT have this won yet, and the koch/adelson/rove carpet-bombing hasn't begun yet. They're still gonna try to buy this election if they still think they have a chance. But at some point I imagine the big-bucks guys may have second thoughts if they think it's becoming clear that they're flushing a coupla billion dollars down the crapper. These guys LOVE their money. They worship and adore it. It's their top priority and their identity and their macho and their Alpha-status and their power and, among the men, their money automatically confers upon them some complementary dick size. And they DO NOT like flushing it down the crapper. OR betting bigtime on a loser.

After all, how would it look?

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