Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: New poll confirms Pennsylvania a near-certain blue state for 2012

If 2010 was a political earthquake, the epicenter may well have been the state of Pennsylvania. The Keystone State replaced Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell with Republican Tom Corbett, and elected far-right former Republican Rep. Patrick Toomey to the United States Senate. Worse still: the GOP picked up a gaudy five seats in the House of Representatives, sending Kathy Dahlkemper, Patrick Murphy, Chris Carney, and Paul Kanjorski to the rail, and picking up the seat of Senate candidate Joe Sestak.
The thundering crash of Democratic fortunes in Pennsylvania led many to speculate that the state that John McCain counted on as a desperation firewall in 2008 (and failed to win) would be a key cog in the GOP's path to 270 electoral votes and Barack Obama's early retirement.

Now, with little more than seven weeks remaining in the 2012 electoral cycle, it looks like Pennsylvania is nearly certain to remain in the Obama coalition of states, and quite possibly by a healthier margin than the 2008 landslide.
More on that in a bit, but first, on to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:


NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (49-45)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (48-48)

NEW JERSEY (Philadelphia Inquirer): Obama d. Romney (51-37)

PENNSYLVANIA (Philadephia Inquirer): Obama d. Romney (50-39)
DOWNBALLOT POLLING:

OHIO (Rasmussen): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 49, Josh Mandel (R) 41

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/15/1132213/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Polling-Wrap-New-poll-confirms-Pennsylvania-a-near-certain-blue-state-for-2012