Can we trust the polls in Wisconsin on Baldwin?

In several races in the 1980's and 1990's black candidates running against white candidates saw huge poll leads result in either losses or very narrow wins. Bradley in California up 5 in polls, lost narrowly. Washington in Chicago up 14 in polls won by 4. Dinkins in NY, up by 14 points in polls, won by 2. Wilder in VA up by 9 in polls won by less than 0.5.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

In 2008 polls wound up being accurate with no sign of a Bradley effect with only New Hampshire, where people were very late deciding for Hillary showing any difference in polling vs results. Gays are now about where blacks were then when it comes to electoral progress. We are only now seeing gays run for statewide office. So will people be more likely to say they are going to vote for Baldwin or are undecided when they are really going to vote for Thompson? I don't know but I will not be counting on polls in WI.