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TrollBuster9090

(5,953 posts)
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 04:06 PM Sep 2012

RCP: Dems winning White House, LOSING the other House...BADLY.

Just a word of caution. DON'T GET COCKY, and DO NOT IGNORE THE DOWN BALLOT Democrats. According to the RCP averages, if the election were held today, Obama would win the White House by a landslide. That was the good news. The BAD news is that the Republicans would win the House by a landslide.

RCP Current Numbers: Here's what you'd see if the election were held today.

Presidency (Electoral College -no toss ups)
Obama: 332
Romney: 206

HOUSE (no toss ups):
Republicans: 248
Democrats: 191

SENATE (no toss ups):
Democrats: 52
Republicans: 48


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/

If the election were held today, Obama would win the White House, Democrats would hang on to the Senate by a thin majority, and Republicans would have a large, 57 seat majority in the House.
In other words, we'd be right back where we started in 2010, with Republicans continuing to block everything, and keep government in a perpetual state of paralysis, if that's still what they want to do. Obviously, they won't have the incentive to clusterf--k the Country in order to satisfy their insane, psychopathological obsession with defeating Obama, but they may still play obstructionist in the hopes of getting larger majorities in 2014.

So, this is just a reminder to KEEP ORGANIZING THE GROUND GAME. Keep working on getting people registered, and getting out the vote. Obama may be in a good spot to win the White House, but if we don't win larger majorities in the House and Senate, he'll be in a hopeless position even if he wins.

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RCP: Dems winning White House, LOSING the other House...BADLY. (Original Post) TrollBuster9090 Sep 2012 OP
Too bad Obamarahma was DLC and got rid of Dean.. ananda Sep 2012 #1
I'd empty my bank account and hand every last dollar to the Democratic Party if they'd only put DEAN TrollBuster9090 Sep 2012 #4
The success of the 50 state strategy is a myth. One of the 99 Sep 2012 #6
Dean got our message out in every red state. Qutzupalotl Sep 2012 #9
It is when a candidate in a close race lost One of the 99 Sep 2012 #13
Such as? Qutzupalotl Sep 2012 #16
Steve Harrison One of the 99 Sep 2012 #19
Obama got an electoral vote in Nebraska justice1 Sep 2012 #25
The difference is to do it smartly and effectively. One of the 99 Sep 2012 #29
Given the extent of gerrymandering for House districts, ProgressiveEconomist Sep 2012 #26
Exactly my point! One of the 99 Sep 2012 #28
And Paul Ryan will be "in our faces" for a very long time. Ugh. cr8tvlde Sep 2012 #2
Actually I smell a +45 net turnover for the Democrats Panasonic Sep 2012 #3
I agree november3rd Sep 2012 #8
Well, I agree that their polls might be more accurate if they didn't include f-ing RASMUSSEN TrollBuster9090 Sep 2012 #11
Rasmussen was tied as most accurate in last Presidential election. Zax2me Sep 2012 #17
Correct! The WEEK OF THE ELECTION they report accurate numbers to maintain their reputation. TrollBuster9090 Sep 2012 #20
Dicho y hecho DLnyc Sep 2012 #22
Thanks for the link! TrollBuster9090 Sep 2012 #24
I think that's pie in the sky ProudToBeBlueInRhody Sep 2012 #15
We Need To Tie Rmoney's Comments About The 47% To All Repugs Running In November.... global1 Sep 2012 #5
It will all depend on who actually shows up to vote. Tx4obama Sep 2012 #7
Very true, especially give that most of the Republican voter enthusiasm revolves around getting rid TrollBuster9090 Sep 2012 #12
As far as I know they repukes will likely lose both the Senate and House rachel1 Sep 2012 #10
I would imagine the people voting for the president Robyn66 Sep 2012 #14
I don't buy those House numbers. I think Romney is going to drag a number of house incumbents down. WI_DEM Sep 2012 #18
The DSCC just called and told me I should give to them because the House doesn't have a chance. Glimmer of Hope Sep 2012 #21
Almost like the 90s... despite Clinton's popularity, the voters give him a GOP congress davidn3600 Sep 2012 #23
Tonight in the grocery store bkkyosemite Sep 2012 #27
Great story! nt TrollBuster9090 Sep 2012 #30

ananda

(28,833 posts)
1. Too bad Obamarahma was DLC and got rid of Dean..
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 04:11 PM
Sep 2012

.. and his 50 state strategy which we SO need right now!

TrollBuster9090

(5,953 posts)
4. I'd empty my bank account and hand every last dollar to the Democratic Party if they'd only put DEAN
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 04:29 PM
Sep 2012

back in that job.

After Obama wins the election, I'm hoping he'll AT LEAST put Dean in as head of HHS. We'll need a champion and a fighter to run the healthcare system in the next term.

One of the 99

(2,280 posts)
6. The success of the 50 state strategy is a myth.
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 04:56 PM
Sep 2012

It wasted money in districts and states where Dems had no chance. Many experts have said that it actually cost the Dems several seats that were possible wins because money was diverted to unwinnable races. The real reason that the Dems did so well in '06 and '08 was because they were wave elections due to GOP mismanagement of the government. The same was true of the '10 election. Despite Michael Steele being a terrible GOP chairman who completely mismanaged his party's funds, the republicans picked up a record number of seats in the House.

Qutzupalotl

(14,285 posts)
9. Dean got our message out in every red state.
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 05:56 PM
Sep 2012

That's not money wasted, even in losing races. it plants seeds for future harvest — if we ever get another DNC chair with vision.

One of the 99

(2,280 posts)
19. Steve Harrison
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 07:07 PM
Sep 2012

He ran against Vito Fossella and was endorsed by the NY Times. But he couldn't get any money from the DNC because they were spending it elsewhere because of the 50 state strategy.

justice1

(795 posts)
25. Obama got an electoral vote in Nebraska
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 10:37 PM
Sep 2012

Unlike other candidates, Obama visited the state, and the Democratic party started spending money. They got a return on their investment. Today, Republicans are having to spend money in a state, that's been considered a "gimme" for decades.

You have no idea what it was like, to feel abandoned by your own party, for so many years. And If I remember a recent Obama speech correctly, he informed Texans, they' are going to be working to turn that state, in the future as well. The 50 state strategy isn't dead, it simply isn't discussed. There are 50 states in the union, and everyone is worth fighting for.

One of the 99

(2,280 posts)
29. The difference is to do it smartly and effectively.
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 11:30 PM
Sep 2012

Which is not what the 50 state strategy was doing.

ProgressiveEconomist

(5,818 posts)
26. Given the extent of gerrymandering for House districts,
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 11:12 PM
Sep 2012

prioritizing spending is essential, IMO. Most House districts have been designed to never allow an election to be close. Different analyses will choose different sets of districts as most competitive (for example, see the NY Times's list of the 81 most competitive House districts at
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/ratings/house ), but it would be foolhardy for the DCCC to divide up its limited funds into 435 equal parts.

Remember, only a net of 25 districts need to flip from R to D for Nancy Pelosi to become Speaker again. So the House is challenging, but by no means hopeless.

One of the 99

(2,280 posts)
28. Exactly my point!
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 11:29 PM
Sep 2012

Spend where it will be effective. Don't spread it around in districts where there is no hope of winning.

cr8tvlde

(1,185 posts)
2. And Paul Ryan will be "in our faces" for a very long time. Ugh.
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 04:12 PM
Sep 2012

There's a reason he has just sunk a ton of cash in Wisconsin. As opposed to Mitt, he has a government job to go back to. I don't think we'll be hearing a whole lot from Rep. Ryan in the next few weeks. That is unless the Democrats hammer on his plan...put it on the web, leak parts of it at a time...drip, drip, drip... like they did Romney's dirt. That's what sticks...snippets of video and audio with short-term audiences in mind.

OTOH, give it to James Carter and David Corn. They know what to do with it.

 

Panasonic

(2,921 posts)
3. Actually I smell a +45 net turnover for the Democrats
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 04:14 PM
Sep 2012

and retaking the house.

Trust me on this. RCP has no clue what they're looking for.

TrollBuster9090

(5,953 posts)
11. Well, I agree that their polls might be more accurate if they didn't include f-ing RASMUSSEN
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 06:00 PM
Sep 2012

in their averages. I wish there was a button you could push that says "Poll Results" vs "Poll Results (Excluding Rasmussen)."

For example, at this point EVERY POLLING organization is showing Obama with increasingly bigger leads, except Rasmussen showing the exact opposite. Rasmussen showing Romney with increasingly bigger leads. Which leads me to believe that at this point Rasmussen is just trying to diminish Obama's lead to avoid Republican voter discouragement. If Obama is WAY ahead, a lot of Republicans might not even show up to vote, and Rasmussen's job is to prevent that.

TrollBuster9090

(5,953 posts)
20. Correct! The WEEK OF THE ELECTION they report accurate numbers to maintain their reputation.
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 07:43 PM
Sep 2012
IN BETWEEN elections they fudge their numbers to manipulate voter sentiment. Rasmussen is always an outlier, relative to other polling organizations, in between elections.


http://www.theatlantic.com/daily-dish/archive/2009/12/rasmussen-vs-the-rest/192361/

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/09/my-probem-with-rasmussen.html

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/08/living-in-rasmussen-land.html

ProudToBeBlueInRhody

(16,399 posts)
15. I think that's pie in the sky
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 06:47 PM
Sep 2012

To flip the house that dramatically in two straight cycles?

I don't see it, especially since the Rethugs have made the narrative all about the President, but I could see a gain of about 15-20 seats on general principal for all the good that will really do. I know in my district my Dem Rep is in trouble for non-Washington reasons, so you never know the little battles in each district playing out.

global1

(25,220 posts)
5. We Need To Tie Rmoney's Comments About The 47% To All Repugs Running In November....
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 04:35 PM
Sep 2012

people need to know that they feel the same way Rmoney does - except that they are too smart to say it.

The American People need to know that a vote for any Repug is like shooting themselves in their foot. We need to give President Obama both the House and Senate if we really want to move Forward. Anything less will keep us in this stalemate that the Repugs have created.

Please get the word out to everyone you know.

Tx4obama

(36,974 posts)
7. It will all depend on who actually shows up to vote.
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 04:57 PM
Sep 2012

If the Romney campaign keeps sinking then there will probably be a bunch of republicans that won't given go to the polls to vote.

TrollBuster9090

(5,953 posts)
12. Very true, especially give that most of the Republican voter enthusiasm revolves around getting rid
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 06:24 PM
Sep 2012
getting the uppity negro out of the White House. If it looks like there's a chance of that happening, they'll crawl across broken glass to vote. If it looks like it's NOT likely to happen, a lot of them won't bother. Mainly because the Tea Party fanatics must be incredibly disappointed by now with the gang of gorillas they sent to Washington in 2010 with the express purpose of dismantling government, and ended up accomplishing absolutely nothing.

The only reason those people would turn out to vote with the knowledge that Obama is going to win anyway, is if they still think that Republicans in the House are going to change everything. There's already evidence that they don't really want to.

That's also why partisan polling organizations like Rasmussen are working so hard to diminish Obama's apparent lead. To avoid having Obama ahead by too big a margin, when, in fact, the obsession with defeating Obama is the only thing driving half the GOP voters.

rachel1

(538 posts)
10. As far as I know they repukes will likely lose both the Senate and House
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 05:57 PM
Sep 2012

Except for some reich-wingers and fundie scum I can't think of anyone who'd vote for them.

Glimmer of Hope

(5,823 posts)
21. The DSCC just called and told me I should give to them because the House doesn't have a chance.
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 08:12 PM
Sep 2012

Boo! I have a hard time believing we don't have a chance!

bkkyosemite

(5,792 posts)
27. Tonight in the grocery store
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 11:25 PM
Sep 2012

there was a lady ahead of me at the checkout. She was talking to the checker and I said something to her (can't remember now) about the 47% and she turned to me and said "can you believe that man" "he has the nerve I used to be a Republican but after what he said no way" "I will vote for Obama he isn't all perfect but a hell of a better choice". I said I agree. Mitt sure thinks us stupid out here we the 47% and she said "I know I delivered mail and no we are not" We smiled and I said have a nice evening. Everyone in the checkouts (three of them) were looking and listening to us. He's in real trouble because I live in a very red county in So. Oregon and people were acknowledging and shaking their heads yes to what we were saying. I left with a smile on my face.

So perhaps we can really get back the house. Those Republicans do not like what ole Willard said no sir ree....

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