General Discussion

LynneSin

(95,337 posts) Wed Sep 19, 2012, 04:51 PM Sep 2012

Ok let's talk about the house - our lucky number is 27! Where are we getting the wins!!

Right now the house is at at 241-191 in favor of the Republicans. There must be some open seats because 435 is the total number of voting US Representative (there are 6 non-voting from areas like DC and Puerto Rico).

I got to think that PA-08 is a strong candidate for a Dem pickup. In 2008 Patrick Murphy ousted Mike Fitzpatrick but Fitzpatrick won in back in 2010 with that wave of new Tea Party republicans. Murphy opted to run for PA AG this year so this year so it's Kathy Boockvar, who looks like she could win this one for us.

Where are we getting our other 26 seats - post them here!

14 replies

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Ok let's talk about the house - our lucky number is 27! Where are we getting the wins!! (Original Post) LynneSin Sep 2012 OP

maybe grayson??? movonne Sep 2012 #1

We are hoping that we can pick up dsc Sep 2012 #2

I think there is at least 2-3 out of Pennsylvania LynneSin Sep 2012 #6

CA-7 may be one to watch in Northern California Brother Buzz Sep 2012 #3

According to Steve Israel, the target is net +25. brooklynite Sep 2012 #4

I think my 27 is based on those 3 open seats LynneSin Sep 2012 #8

Let's give PrezO a House he can live with! elleng Sep 2012 #5

Here are the most competitive Republican/open seats brooklynite Sep 2012 #7

Tammy Duckworth Over Joe Walsh In Illinois...... global1 Sep 2012 #9

I think we can beat Bilbray in San Diego, he's a real jerk. Pyrzqxgl Sep 2012 #10

MN 6 Bachmann's seat riverwalker Sep 2012 #11

MD-6 might surprise us. (Dulaney-D v. Bartlett-R) Waiting For Everyman Sep 2012 #12

Just saw this: MD-6 is rated #4 in RCP's liklihood to switch. Waiting For Everyman Sep 2012 #14

Washington state picked up a new district in redistricting (#10) and Denny Heck, a Dem, is leading sad sally Sep 2012 #13

movonne

(9,623 posts)

1. maybe grayson???

Reply to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 04:59 PM

Sep 2012

dsc

(52,152 posts)

2. We are hoping that we can pick up

Reply to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 05:04 PM

Sep 2012

4 seats in new york, 2 in new hampshire, 4 in california, 2 in florida, 4 in texas, and 3 in illinois. That still leaves several seats needed but that is our hope.

LynneSin

(95,337 posts)

6. I think there is at least 2-3 out of Pennsylvania

Reply to dsc (Reply #2)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 05:11 PM

Sep 2012

But I"m a bit nervous about Pa-17. Tim Holden district was modified again and lost out to another democrat in the primaries. Holden was one of those blue dog dems that could win in a R-leaning district but not sure what the dynamics are with the new Pa-17.

Brother Buzz

(36,389 posts)

3. CA-7 may be one to watch in Northern California

Reply to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 05:06 PM

Sep 2012

Ami Bera (D) appears to be neck and neck with incumbent Dan Lungren (R). Redistricting was wicked weird this year and all the congressional critters appearing to be playing musical chairs with the new districts. On the surface, all the new districts looked to be a push, but CA-7 is looking like it could really flip. Lungren deserves to be tossed out!

DCCC has started airing ads attacking Lungren exposing him for the scoundrel he is. Money well spent in my estimation.

brooklynite

(94,384 posts)

4. According to Steve Israel, the target is net +25.

Reply to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 05:07 PM

Sep 2012

LynneSin

(95,337 posts)

8. I think my 27 is based on those 3 open seats

Reply to brooklynite (Reply #4)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 05:15 PM

Sep 2012

435 - Total House seats
432 - Total House seats currently filled
191 - Total Dem House seats

435/2 = 218 (round up) house seats needed for majority

218-191 = 27 house seats

I don't know what the status is for those 3 open house seats if they are dem or gop leaning districts so my math includes us winning 2 of those 3 seats hence the 27.

IF those 2 seats are assumed Dem then 25 is the number

elleng

(130,773 posts)

5. Let's give PrezO a House he can live with!

Reply to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 05:07 PM

Sep 2012

http://www.democraticunderground.com/125188984

brooklynite

(94,384 posts)

7. Here are the most competitive Republican/open seats

Reply to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 05:12 PM

Sep 2012

AZ-01 NEW SEAT R+3
CA-07 Rep. Dan Lungren R+3
CA-26 OPEN (Gallegly) D+2
CA-52 Rep. Brian Bilbray D+1
CO-06 Rep. Mike Coffman R+1
FL-18 Rep. Allen West R+1
FL-26 Rep. David Rivera R+4
IL-11 Rep. Judy Biggert D+5
IL-17 Rep. Bobby Schilling D+6
MI-01 Rep. Dan Benishek R+3
MN-08 Rep. Chip Cravaack D+3
NV-03 Rep. Joe Heck EVEN
NH-01 Rep. Frank Guinta EVEN
NH-02 Rep. Charlie Bass D+3
NY-18 Rep. Nan Hayworth R+2
NY-19 Rep. Chris Gibson EVEN
OH-16 MERGED (Renacci) R+4
TX-23 Rep. Francisco Canseco R+6

Note - this assumes that we don't LOSE any seats. These are the most vulnerable:

IL-12 OPEN (Costello) D+2
IA-03 MERGED (Boswell) R+1
MA-06 Rep. John Tierney D+7
NY-27 Rep. Kathy Hochul R+7
NC-07 Rep. Mike McIntyre R+11
PA-12 Rep. Mark Critz R+6
RI-01 Rep. David Cicilline D+14
UT-04 Rep. Jim Matheson R+14

global1

(25,226 posts)

9. Tammy Duckworth Over Joe Walsh In Illinois......

Reply to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 05:17 PM

Sep 2012

I don't think Walsh can beat her. He has shown his true stripes to too many people in his new redistricted venue and they don't like him. Sad to say though that I did see some Joe Walsh lawn signs in his district. Couldn't believe it.