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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums538: Biden Is Polling Better Than Clinton At Her Peak
Election Day is now just three months away, and the overall trajectory of the race hasnt changed much recently: Joe Biden continues to hold a sizable lead over President Trump. Biden is now up by 8 percentage points in FiveThirtyEights national polling average, and he has an advantage of 5 points or more in several key battleground states like Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Faced with these numbers, though, a lot of people Republicans, Democrats and people with no particular party affiliation raise a reasonable question: Wasnt Hillary Clinton leading in the polls too?
Well, yes. But not quite like this. We compared Bidens standing to where Clinton was at this point in the polls four years ago.1 We specifically chose this point in the cycle in 2016 because its about where Clinton hit her peak on Aug. 7, 2016, following the Democratic National Convention, Clinton had a 7.5-point lead over Trump in national polls.
Clinton never topped that lead. But as you can see in the chart below, even at her post-convention peak, Clintons lead over Trump still wasnt as large as Bidens is now.
More: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-polling-better-than-clinton-at-her-peak/
Nululu
(840 posts)Biden has and continues to rise.
Trump's attempts to destroy Medicare, Social Security, and the Post Office right before the election demonstrate his delusions.
Trump's actions on top of gross incompetence for covid prove how thick his coccoon of fantasy is. He's completely divorced from reality if he believes these are popular moves.
Thekaspervote
(32,754 posts)apcalc
(4,463 posts)Towlie
(5,324 posts)That's better than the chance of flipping a coin twice and getting heads both times. If you believe fivethirtyeight.com then I don't think it's quite time yet to sit back and smugly claim that the election is in the bag.
Quixote1818
(28,928 posts)But this is a bit encouraging.
empedocles
(15,751 posts)a trump uptick as Kamala attacks start to gain some traction.
sweetloukillbot
(11,005 posts)Started at 29 on Weds.
ProfessorGAC
(64,995 posts)...I think it's important to emphasize:
Biden has had no convention bump!
There has been no convention, and the lead is larger than in 2016, which did have that bump.
Just a ray of optimism!