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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhy I'm pessimistic about 2016, but optimistic about 2024.
Postwar presidential terms
1944,1948: Democrats won
1952,1956: Republicans won
1960,1964: Democrats won
1968,1972: Republicans won
1976,1980: Democrats won one, then an exceptionally charismatic Republican beat an exceptionally embattled Democrat.
1984,1988: Republicans won
1992,1996: Democrats won
2000,2004: Republicans won
2008,2012: Democrats won
Now, there are lots of patterns like this one can draw with elections - there's a famous XKCD cartoon on unprecedented elections.
But I don't think this one is just coincidence. I think that there is a very large chunk of the electorate whose psychology can be summed up as "We are in a mess (the country is *always* in a mess, to a greater or lesser extent); whose fault is it that the country is in a mess; I shall vote for the other guy." And it appears that the majority of such people view the president as responsible for the state of the country, and that after four years they still blame the last president while after eight they blame the current one.
Now, obviously, I'm in no way shape or form confident either that the Democrats will lose the presidency in 2016 or that they'll regain it in 2024. There are any number of other factors - changing demographics, a high-profile obstructionist Republican congress attracting blame, the possibility that people might actually vote on issues or at least personalities rather than on grudges, and so on - that could make either of those not the case. So please, don't bother telling me that it's far too soon to tell - I'm well aware that it is.
But I think that the pattern is interesting and potentially significant, and worth drawing attention to.
randome
(34,845 posts)Gay rights cannot be stopped. The changing demographics cannot be stopped. And, from what we've seen so far, the GOP cannot change.
Plus Obama has changed the ground game and his expertise will continue to be a guiding factor after his term ends, I would bet.
I am very optimistic about 2016.
ChoppinBroccoli
(3,784 posts)................more people voted for the Democrat in 2000. And almost certainly in 2004 too. It's been a long time since we've seen a Republican blow his opponent out of the water. I think that's a trend. The pendulum always swings back and forth, but I really think the swing toward the Democrats is more of a trend. The population is changing. Most young people are liberal, and the old conservative people are doing what old people do: dying off. Plus there is the ever-increasing "minority" population that the Republicans are determined to alienate.
denverbill
(11,489 posts)It was the shitty economy and long-dragged out Iran hostage crisis.
In most years, a shitty economy is enough to do in any President. The incredibly bad policies of the Republican party were the only thing that kept them from winning in 2012. Privatize Medicare, privatize Social Security, cut taxes for the rich, cut aid for the poor. Those are their policies. And as the Ryan budget shows, they have no intention of changing them. If they keep running that same tired shit out there every election, Democrats will keep winning.
randome
(34,845 posts)Bad policies are not an 'only' factor in an election. The GOP has imploded and is continuing to do so.
truebluegreen
(9,033 posts)to keep the hostages and make Carter look bad, then you can say that Saint Ronnie made a difference.
edited for spelling
Zorra
(27,670 posts)I will never believe he won, he cheated.
Cheating is the only way any of these resent republicans won, that is the pattern.
Hopefully we are on to them and it won't happen again.