What I expect from the Supremes on gay marriage

I do not expect any sweeping decisions by the Supremes that gay marriage is a constitutional right and that no law may be passed forbidding it. The Supreme Court, especially one as conservative as this one, usually moves with baby steps. Even as ardent a liberal as Justice Ginsburg has stated that sometimes she thinks Roe v Wade (which she certainly supports) went too far too fast at the time.

My best guess (and reading accounts of any oral argument is like reading tea leaves) is that DOMA will be found unconstitutional, but the Supremes will duck ruling that gay marriage is a constitutional right either by ruling that there is no "standing" for those arguing in favor of Prop 8 to bring the matter to court or that it is a matter to be decided by the individual states. That would preserve the 9th Circuit ruling that Prop 8 is invalid and allow gay marriage in California.

On the other hand, DOMA will fall because while some states may allow gay marriage and some may forbid it, the federal government cannot reduce or limit rights granted by the states to its citizens that may be in excess of the rights provided by the US Constitution. In other words, a state can grant more constitutional rights to an individual than the federal government but not less and the federal government must give recognition to those additional rights as granted by the states. So any federal law that limits a right granted to a state citizen by their state is invalid.

I think the larger issue of a federal constitutional right to gay marriage will have to wait for another day. I know that is unacceptable for those denied their rights for so long and wish it were not so, but consider that the last vestiges of slavery have taken 160+ years to wipe away and we are not completely there yet.