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malaise

(268,726 posts)
Sun Jun 1, 2014, 05:40 AM Jun 2014

Six Key Questions for the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2687
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The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway on Sunday, June 1. What will this year's hurricane season bring? My top six questions for the coming season:

1) When will the first "Invest", tropical depression, and named storm of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season form? We have a chance of all three of these events occurring in the Gulf of Mexico during the first week of hurricane season, though the models are currently hazy about this. An area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific located a few hundred miles south of Southeast Mexico is forecast to move slowly northwards towards the Gulf of Mexico Sunday through Tuesday. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Wednesday. The 06Z Friday run of the GFS model predicts that this disturbance will make landfall in Southeast Mexico on Tuesday, then spread moisture northwards over the Gulf of Mexico late in the week. The model predicts that wind shear will be light to moderate over the Gulf late in the week, potentially allowing the disturbance to spin up into a tropical depression. The 00Z Friday run of the European model has a different solution, predicting that the Eastern Pacific tropical disturbance will remain south of Mexico through Friday. However, the model suggests that moisture streaming into the Gulf of Mexico late in the week will be capable of spawning an area of low pressure with the potential to develop in the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. In any case, residents of Southeast Mexico and Western Guatemala appear at risk to undergo a multi-day period of very heavy rainfall capable of causing flash flooding and dangerous mudslides beginning as early as Monday. This disturbance may cross over Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico and create the Atlantic's first "Invest" with the potential to develop late in the week, sometime June 5 - 7.

2) All of the major seasonal hurricane forecasts are calling for a below-average to near-average season, with 9 - 12 named storms, 3 - 6 hurricanes, and 1 - 2 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2013 averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Will an El Niño event indeed arrive, bringing reduced Atlantic hurricane activity, allowing the pre-season predictions to redeem themselves after a huge forecast bust in 2013?

4) Will the U.S. break its 2006 - 2013 eight-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?
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AngryAmish

(25,704 posts)
12. So...just ignore the grand forecast and keep an eye out for real ones?
Sun Jun 1, 2014, 07:40 AM
Jun 2014

There seems to be this belief that withiut the yearly hectoring nobody will prepare. People in hurricane areas are quite aware of hurricane risks, outside of Louisiana levy authorities, but they have been crooked as the day is long.

malaise

(268,726 posts)
13. We buy our basic needs
Sun Jun 1, 2014, 07:50 AM
Jun 2014

No one can frighten us into non-stop shopping, but we all know that the corporations view hurricane season like Christmas - by any means necessary.
People need to learn to read the maps and check daily to see if anything is in their neck of the woods.

malaise

(268,726 posts)
5. Sandy wasa post-tropical cyclone when she hit the US coast
Sun Jun 1, 2014, 06:40 AM
Jun 2014

Hurricane Sandy (unofficially known as "Superstorm Sandy&quot was the deadliest and most destructive hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, as well as the second-costliest hurricane in United States history. Classified as the eighteenth named storm, tenth hurricane and second major hurricane of the year, Sandy was a Category 3 storm at its peak intensity when it made landfall in Cuba.[1] While it was a Category 2 storm off the coast of the Northeastern United States, the storm became the largest Atlantic hurricane on record (as measured by diameter, with winds spanning 1,100 miles (1,800 km)).[2][3] Estimates as of March 2014 assess damage to have been over $68 billion (2013 USD), a total surpassed only by Hurricane Katrina.[4] At least 286 people were killed along the path of the storm in seven countries.[5]

Sandy developed from a tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea on October 22, quickly strengthened, and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Sandy six hours later. Sandy moved slowly northward toward the Greater Antilles and gradually intensified. On October 24, Sandy became a hurricane, made landfall near Kingston, Jamaica, re-emerged a few hours later into the Caribbean Sea and strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane. On October 25, Sandy hit Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane, then weakened to a Category 1 hurricane. Early on October 26, Sandy moved through the Bahamas.[6] On October 27, Sandy briefly weakened to a tropical storm and then restrengthened to a Category 1 hurricane. Early on October 29, Sandy curved north-northwest and then[7] moved ashore near Brigantine, New Jersey, just to the northeast of Atlantic City, as a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds.[1][8]

She was also not major by hurricane strength - peaking in Cuba at Cat 3

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Sandy

malaise

(268,726 posts)
9. Tell me about it and she hit Jamaica on our North-East coast
Sun Jun 1, 2014, 06:48 AM
Jun 2014

long before anyone saw what she would do to the US mainland.

 

Lee-Lee

(6,324 posts)
11. Sandy wasn't even a hurricane when it hit
Sun Jun 1, 2014, 07:39 AM
Jun 2014

But we all got the impression it was a major storm because of two factors.

First, it hit an area woefully unprepared. Had a storm of equal magnitude hit the gulf coats it would have been a short new blurb and life would have been back to normal in a few days for the most part.

It hit NYC, home to most of the major news networks. Since it hit close to home and actually affected decision makers there, it got a lot more coverage.

NutmegYankee

(16,199 posts)
15. They were unprepared for Sandy because of Hurricane Irene
Sun Jun 1, 2014, 09:07 AM
Jun 2014

Irene in 2011 went over NYC, but it's major damage was done in Southeastern Connecticut and Rhode Island. The region I live in had 86% of all homes knocked offline from the power grid. My town (Montville), was 100% in the dark for days (over a week). Now the gas stations managed to get back up on generator, so gasoline supplies were fine. With no lights, friends and neighbors came by and we sat around tables with candles and fumed at Connecticut Light & Power, who was fixing the western portions of the state first before moving on to other topics.

NYC on the other hand congratulated themselves on their invulnerability to the storm and so they thought Sandy would be the same and took no action to prepare. Sandy dropped the lights in CT again, but we both came back faster and had none of the gasoline disruptions that NY/NJ had. Having invested in a generator and transfer switch, I got to watch it all on the TV (with antenna).

One of the things I distinctly remember was people in NYC calling Irene "sensationalism" because they were not impacted. And yet when Sandy hit, it was the "storm of the century". Meh - I got my power back in two days. Irene was far worse for me.

malaise

(268,726 posts)
16. FFS- do you have a clue about the convergence of three weather events
Sun Jun 1, 2014, 09:13 AM
Jun 2014

That led to Sandy's devastation? Did you see the size of that fugging storm?

 

Lee-Lee

(6,324 posts)
17. Yes, but as I said had that same storm hit the gulf coast the impact would not have been different
Sun Jun 1, 2014, 10:00 AM
Jun 2014

Or even Miami.

Areas that see a lot of hurricanes take better steps to prepare, and have more experience dealing with them. This mitigates much of the damage and trouble.

Also areas that take a lot of storms don't have as many older and more vulnerable structures, they have been damaged and replaced/repaired to stronger specs after previous storms.

It was bad, for sure. But a lot of that was because of the areas it hit and their level of preparedness and the way the homes, business and infrastructure existed that made it all much more vulnerable.

This applies even down to the individual level. You never see the long lines for gas after a tropical storm or moderate hurricane in the areas that normally see them- people there including putting gas back as part of getting ready. Most of the gas shortage and long lines we saw after sandy were due to people not having any set back so going into panic mode when they couldn't buy any right away.

Dustlawyer

(10,494 posts)
14. Ike in 2007 was a 2 when it hit us but we still had 100 + mph winds for 5 hours straight!
Sun Jun 1, 2014, 08:27 AM
Jun 2014

Katrina and Rita were in 2005, and each was a 3 when they landed although both had been 5's while in the Gulf.

 

Savannahmann

(3,891 posts)
6. I don't think the conditions are right at this time.
Sun Jun 1, 2014, 06:43 AM
Jun 2014

Certainly not in the Atlantic, and I don't think they are in the Gulf either. The low level clouds are moving in a different direction to high level. This prevents the clouds from really jacking up, getting the height they need to build to a powerful storm. The tops get sheared off in other words.

Living in Georgia for most of the last twenty years, I have studied the storms every single year. As an amateur, I'm not bad at guestimating the storm path, and I've learned what builds them up, and what keeps them from building. Warm water of course builds them up, but it takes a confluence of events, it's never one thing, to make them powerful. Low level and high level winds need to be going the same direction before the storm can build. It has to have time to build up. Andrew is the exception, like someone who wins the lottery, but otherwise the storms build on a predictable curve.

As for me, I've already got food, batteries, medical supplies, and a couple weather radios set aside. I start putting that stuff together about February, so that I enter the season ready, not trying to finish up. So far we've been lucky and only lost power for a few hours during the tail of the storms, but one can't count on luck forever.

Personally, I don't think the season will be all that bad, at least the first half. It barely got to the low 90's in Georgia during May. The bad years seem to come when we have an early and savage heat wave. So far, we aren't. But again, Andrew proves that you can't rule things out, it came late in the season, and was horrific.

I use a couple tracking programs and of course the NWS hurricane page. I've signed up for weather emails from both my tracking software sites, and the NWS. Perhaps I'm egotistical, but I like the tracking software, it allows me to examine the raw data and make my own decisions. More access to information thanks to the internet.

malaise

(268,726 posts)
8. This time of year we tend to have heavy flooding in Central America, Southern Mexico
Sun Jun 1, 2014, 06:46 AM
Jun 2014

Haiti, occasionally Jamaica, Cuba and parts of Florida. Most of this comes from the Eastern Pacific.

The real Atlantic season gets hot at the end of August into the second or 3rd week of September.
That said, we've had serious hurricanes earlier and later than peak season.

We're ready for 2014.

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