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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCantor lost because of Immigration Reform, Yes, but not for the reasons being reported.
This was a stealth hit from the left. No one expected Cantor to lose. His internal polling had him up 20+ points. There was large turnout for a VA primary. But VA has open primaries, and a number of people from the left voted against Cantor to undo his seat. Right now all the pundits are proclaiming that Immigration Reform is dead because Cantor's opponent, Brat, ran against Cantor on this single issue. But what happens if Brat doesn't win? Then a Democrat wins the seat in a notably Republican District against a candidate who ran on killing Immigration Reform.
When that happens, Immigration Reform will be very alive and well. This is the next big item on President Obama's agenda. Cantor was one of the heads of the hydra and Obama's operation cut it off last night. Cantor has been instrumental in obstructing *everything* even when it was something Republicans wanted. He was instrumental in the shutdown, he was instrumental in every party-line vote to repeal Obamacare. Despite what he publicly said, Cantor had no intention of helping to pass this important legislation and Obama knew it. Cantor lost his seat because he was obstructing Immigration Reform, not because his candidate campaigned on it. Obama is not messing around. What happened last night sent shockwaves, for sure, but it isn't the kind of shockwaves being reported.
Obama will pass Immigration Reform during his second term. Cantor losing his seat was the first shot of that battle. The Repubs know it.
Chiquitita
(752 posts)I was happy to see Cantor lose, but upset thinking that so many people would be motivated to vote against him by immigration reform. Are there really a large group of voters out there that are motivated by wanting to stop the Dream Act? I certainly hope not. Immigrants are used for narratives, it's hard to see what will happen. I like your prediction though and hope it comes true.
berni_mccoy
(23,018 posts)Also, Other Incumbents that were being primaries by tea party members last night like Lindsay Graham openly stated their support for immigration reform and they won. Rand Paul supports it and he's a major tea party favorite. Cantor's loss had nothing to do with a desire to kill Immigration reform, even though some want it to look that way.
Voice for Peace
(13,141 posts)Eric Cantor is one of the faces I would like
to never see again ever anywhere.
pampango
(24,692 posts)compared to the rest of the country. And, of course, republican primary voters are the most conservative voters in very conservative districts.
I agree that this undoubtedly dooms any hopes (which were slim to none anyway) for even modest immigration reform in congress before the November election because republican congressmen will be terrified to anger the nativist wing of the party. If the Democrat wins in the general election the message of Cantor's loss will be very pro-immigration reform.
Leme
(1,092 posts)I doubt they will fix it with the next immigration law.
-
but I don't see one for at least a few years. or longer
ChisolmTrailDem
(9,463 posts)Leme
(1,092 posts)a temporary patch of some aspect , if lucky.
ChisolmTrailDem
(9,463 posts)Leme
(1,092 posts)gwheezie
(3,580 posts)and know several people in his district who are teabags and voted for Brat. The teabags in his district have hated Cantor before Brat came along. Yes some of it is over immigration but they blame Cantor for Obamacare because he voted to reopen the government. The blame Cantor for raising the debt ceiling and there is a streak of antisemitism in that hard right group. Brat did not restrict his attacks solely to immigration and if you talk to the teabags in Cantors district they have a long list of why they hate the guy.
kelliekat44
(7,759 posts)They dare not voice it loudly or in the open but I spoke with my cousin's friend who lives there. But it really is funny that many of them don't who really lives among them. Their individual prejudices keep them blind to truth.
JustAnotherGen
(31,781 posts)Has him wearing his Catholocism on his sleeve. Makes sense when we get insight from the trenches. Thanks for sharing that!
elleng
(130,740 posts)so they DO know he's Jewish! And Brat read the New Testament to his 'constituents.'
DhhD
(4,695 posts)Complex.
Lex
(34,108 posts)that Cantor just lost is not a strong candidate by all accounts, and probably because people thought Cantor had a lock on that seat--and because it is a deeply red district.
gwheezie
(3,580 posts)If Brat wins it will be because of outside money. I've listened to a few interviews and so far he's trying real hard not to make a stupid comment but he's getting so close and it's less than 24 hours since he won. Let's give him a couple of days on radio and fox interviews and let someone ask him about rape.
berni_mccoy
(23,018 posts)Who would you rather have as a political savvy candidate? An economics professor or a sociology professor. My money is on the latter.
SKKY
(11,794 posts)...Chuck Todd was saying this morning (I podcast Maddow, but since I'm in Spain, my morning is last night for you guys in the states) that Romney won Cantor's district with 57%, so it is red, but not Kansas or Oklahoma red. I think the Dems like their chances of picking this guy off and they appear to have a strong candidate.
dirtydickcheney
(242 posts)All of the investment banks, up in New York and D.C., they should have gone to jail.
That isnt a quote from an Occupy Wall Street protester or Senator Elizabeth Warren. Thats a common campaign slogan repeated by Dave Brat, the Virginia college professor who scored one of the biggest political upsets in over a century by defeating Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the Republican primary last night.
The national media is buzzing about Brats victory, but for all of the wrong reasons.
Did the Tea Party swoop in and help Brat, as many in the Democratic Party are suggesting? Actually, the Wall Street Journal reports no major Tea Party or anti-establishment GOP group spent funds to defeat Cantor. Did Cantor, the only Jewish Republican in Congress, lose because of his religion, as some have suggested? Theres no evidence so far of anti-Semitism during the campaign. Was Cantor caught flatfooted? Nope; Cantors campaign spent close to $1 million on the race and several outside advocacy groups, including the National Rifle Association, the National Realtors Association and the American Chemistry Council (a chemical industry lobbying association) came in and poured money into the district to defeat Brat. The New York Times claims that Brat focused his campaign primarily on immigration reform. Brat certainly made immigration a visible topic in his race, but Republic Report listened to several hours of Brat stump speeches and radio appearances, and that issue came up far less what Brat called the main problem in government: corruption and cronyism.
- See more at: http://www.republicreport.org/2014/dave-brat-cantor/#sthash.7TTRE1Gn.dpuf
http://www.republicreport.org/2014/dave-brat-cantor/
octoberlib
(14,971 posts)Brat told Internet radio host Flint Engelman that the number one plank in his campaign is free markets. Brat went on to explain, Eric Cantor and the Republican leadership do not know what a free market is at all, and the clearest evidence of that is the financial crisis
When I say free markets, I mean no favoritism to K Street lobbyists. Banks like Goldman Sachs were not fined for their role in the financial crisis rather, they were rewarded with bailouts, Brat has said. -
During several campaign appearances, Brat says what upset him the most about Cantor was his role in gutting the last attempt at congressional ethics reform. If you want to find out the smoking gun in this campaign, Brat told Engelman, just go Google and type the STOCK Act and CNN and Eric Cantor. (On Twitter, Brat has praised the conservative author Peter Schweizer, whose work on congressional corruption forced lawmakers into action on the STOCK Act.)
The STOCK Act, a bill to crack down on insider trading, was significantly watered down by Cantor in early 2012. The lawmaker took out provisions that would have forced Wall Street political intelligence firms to register as traditional lobbyists would, and removed a section of the bill to empower prosecutors to go after public officials who illegally trade on insider knowledge. And Brat may be right to charge that Cantors moves on the STOCK Act were motivated by self interest. Cantor played a leading role in blocking legislation to fix the foreclosure crisis while his wife and his stock portfolio were deeply invested in mortgage banks.
- See more at: http://www.republicreport.org/2014/dave-brat-cantor/#sthash.7TTRE1Gn.VEeLePM0.dpuf
See more at: http://www.republicreport.org/2014/dave-brat-cantor/#sthash.7TTRE1Gn.VEeLePM0.dpuf
adieu
(1,009 posts)Brat is more "Occupy" than "Tea Bag"?
DhhD
(4,695 posts)n/t
Voice for Peace
(13,141 posts)teabaggers and occupiers should be united against big money
and corruption in government. It really is a common cause.
All of the investment banks, up in New York and D.C., they should have gone to jail.
Jake Stern
(3,145 posts)BUT this isn't an ideal world and the Tea Party has shown again and again that they're willing to embrace faux populism to whip up the proles.
I agree with Ron Paul on a number of things such as non intervention in foreign wars but that doesn't mean I should vote for the guy.
Historic NY
(37,449 posts)mostly on principle, they will stay home rather than go full on teabagger. Brat also campaigned on guns its not yet evident to see what the domestic teabag terrorists have on regular GOP voters. I image a few reminders on the teabag flag on the bodies of dead cops will reinforce that it some mind. Cantors hubris and the desire to take him down by those in his own district is probably the biggest factor. Time will tell but Brat is not ready for primetime.
ancianita
(35,933 posts)ucrdem
(15,512 posts)ancianita
(35,933 posts)That's the main question I'd still like an answer to.
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)and it looks like there may well have been, there might be more in store, so the game is probably going to change a lot in coming weeks would be my guess.
IOW . . .
ancianita
(35,933 posts)IronLionZion
(45,380 posts)the difference in turnout could be a game changer. Midterm elections are more unpredictable because of lower turnout overall. Its doable. No matter what happens, I really hope the Dems fight for this district and earn some votes.
rustbeltvoice
(429 posts)that Cantor really is an insufferable prick and SOB who is reminiscent of the Eddie Haskell television character, and many people would really want to slap the shit out of him?
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)and yet still get returned right on schedule.
brooklynite
(94,360 posts)Cantor didn't lose because he was too conservative for his district; he lost because he was too liberal. Brat's win might make make the odds marginally better since he won't have the same financial resources as Cantor...but apparently he didn't need them.
smallcat88
(426 posts)on MSNBC last night that because of the polling indications that said Cantor would win, a lot of non-tea bagger Republicans just stayed home and didn't vote. Didn't think it was necessary.
Given that polling shows most Americans favor immigration reform (including most Republicans), Brat's anti-immigration stance could come back to bite him in the general election. Here's hoping!