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Takket

(21,425 posts)
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 01:31 PM Jun 2014

Can the Dems take VA's 7th now?

This was surely not even on the Dems’ radar as a seat that could be fought for, but with a right wing extremist now nominated, surely the numbers say that some Cantor votes are now going to move over to the Dems. But will they be enough? Looking at the voting history here:

http://ballotpedia.org/Virginia's_7th_Congressional_District_elections,_2014

2012: Cantor won 222983 (58.4%) to 158012. 381909 votes were cast but keep in mind this was a Presidential election year.

2010: Cantor won 138209 (59.2%) to 79616. 233402 votes were cast which included a Green candidate pulling 15164 (6.5%).

The 2010 vote total is probably more realistic for a midterm. It looks like a Libertarian is running as a third party candidate in this election. I’m not sure how to project who he is going to “pull” votes from but I assume mostly from Brat.
So, let’s make some assumptions, and I want to break this down as the DNC would to determine if they can take this seat, so if you think my assumptions are bad, feel free to say so, I won’t be offended!

234000 will vote.

5% (11700) will vote for the third party.

After the 5% are deducted, it will take 111200 votes to have the “majority” and win this election.

80000 will vote for the Dem candidate without question (based on the 79616 from the 2012 election). If they didn’t support Cantor they aren’t going to support brat!

234000 – 11700 – 80000 = 142300 votes “out there” that would have voted for Cantor. Out of those 142300 people, the Dem candidate needs to pull 31200 of those votes to add to his 80000 and reach the “magic number” of 111200 to win the seat.

That is a pretty hefty chunk of 22% of Cantor’s voters that have to move over to the Dem’s column for the left to win the seat. Can it be done? “Yes” of course, but in our society it all depends on how much you want to spend. Will the DNC commit the resources needed to grab those 22%, or will they not bother?

And is it WORTH it to them to commit the resources, or will it jeopardize their campaigns in other races?

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elleng

(130,156 posts)
1. Don't expect a thing from the Dem party,
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 01:35 PM
Jun 2014

as they failed last time to do anything for an excellent candidate. https://www.facebook.com/PowellForVA

HOWEVER, that does NOT mean that it can't be done, and I suggest that we take it on, including encouraging DFA to help.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10025081612

Jeff In Milwaukee

(13,992 posts)
2. Barring a conservative third party challenge...
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 01:35 PM
Jun 2014

I would say that Brat will be in Congress next January. It could be that this guy wilts under the spotlight or has a "Macacca Moment" that causes him to crash and burn -- but this is a significantly red district. It would take just about every Independent and Moderate Republican (remember them?) to cross over for Trammell to have a chance.

 

Blue Meany

(1,947 posts)
3. The problem is that this a mid-term election, so it isn't likely to see the kind of
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 01:37 PM
Jun 2014

Democratic turnout that was there in 2012 and that would be needed to win. Unless, of course, there is a huge push on GOTV and some issue to mobilize dems.

sufrommich

(22,871 posts)
4. Probably not. It's a gerrymandered GOP district.
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 01:37 PM
Jun 2014

A write in Cantor vote that splits GOP votes was probably our only chance.

 

kelliekat44

(7,759 posts)
5. We had better start now. We see it doesn't take much money. Door to door leaflets...etc you know
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 01:38 PM
Jun 2014

that community organizing thingy.

yallerdawg

(16,104 posts)
6. The Republicans did their part.
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 01:41 PM
Jun 2014

They nominated a wild card. They made it more possible for a Democrat to win, now that the incumbent is gone.

We watched a Republican take Ted Kennedy's vacant seat (and now it's held by Elizabeth Warren!).

Anything can happen!

Brother Buzz

(36,216 posts)
7. Seven percent solution
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 01:51 PM
Jun 2014

Virginia's 7th congressional district is 57% republican and this wacko right-wing loon may just be too out there, over the edge, for the fence sitting country club republicans. It's doable, but it's going to take a lot of work...and money.


DCCC, please pick up the nearest white courtesy telephone.

brooklynite

(93,873 posts)
8. An honest answer (not a wish): probably not...
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 01:57 PM
Jun 2014

I wish Trammell well, and if anyone local can lend a hand, great, but I would NOT recommend making a financial contribution. The emotional appeal here was defeating Cantor. Well, Cantor's defeated but this is still an R+10 "SAFE REPUBLICAN" district. I dollar spent here is a dollar not spent on a race that's more winnable.

politicat

(9,808 posts)
9. Looking at demographics, it might be, if Trammell talks to middle class concerns.
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 02:14 PM
Jun 2014

Trammell had been running as a sacrificial candidate on the issues of student loans, the cost of college and improving access to higher ed. Which can still work as his major points, given local demographics.

Median age in VA07 is 39.2 years, meaning a significant chunk of the population is either sending a child to college or about to be. Median home value is $188K, with 72% owner occupied. Again, the people in the median have most of their assets tied into their housing, and that asset is what will get their kids through four years. Median household income is $64,751, and with that median home value, the median monthly take home income will be about $4300, and the median mortgage payment around $1200. Add in at least one car payment ($400), insurance (home, car: $350), utilities (phone, power, heat, water, cable/DSL: $550) and groceries for 4 ($800) and that leaves only about $1000 a month that is not allocated to necessities. (Yes, technically, cable and new cars aren't necessities, but it's a wealthy district, so yes, they are.) For a lot of families, even the ones in the comfortable upper middle class, squeezing out $500 a month or more for tuition /student support is painfully tough. Advocating a better way to pay for college plays well to parents looking to fund their children's educations.

1/5 of the population in the district speaks a language other than English as their primary language at home, and 12.7% are foreign born. That means that most of the district either is or knows someone who are immigrants. If Trammell can play that bit of empathy and can take a firm but fair stance on immigration, he can pull that sector.

I think the DNC is interested -- he had a basic, sacrificial candidate website last night, but now that's come down, there is a place-holder with bio and donate, so that tells me they're ramping up a rollout.

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