up strategic Governorships (FL/PA/WI).

Oh my gosh, even with FL and PA pick up, the Republicans have 30 Governor seats...that is awful.

WE may, for the 'fun' of the chase, and I have little confidence in the Party's ability to get its act together to put up good fights for important Senate seats.

I do disagree, Governorships ARE important, VERY important.

I hope they spend a LOT of time on Wendy Davis. She can be the start of the de-gerrymandering of Texas, which WILL have a numbers impact on the House.

I know DFA has Wendy high on their priority list, and that goes for several other statehouses as well as about 7 key Senate races, particularly Kentucky and Georgia. With both States' Democratic Parties fielding women candidates, Emily's List will be involved, too.

In my perfect world where Justice is always the end result of any question Wendy Davis would win Texas hands down. In the world in which I actually find myself, she doesn't have a prayer.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/tx/texas_governor_abbott_vs_davis-3596.html

Wendy is trailing by twelve points. If we poured fifty million dollars into the campaign and dedicated the best campaign workers to the effort we could probably cut that deficit in half. Even then we would still lose by six points. That fifty million dollars would be better spent defending incumbents in the Senate in an effort to save the majority.

And just holding the Senate isn't anything. Settling for that still makes Obama powerless for the rest of his term.

Very little legislation getting through the gridlock of Congress, and none of it very good. Or nothing but RW crap that holds the nation hostage that President Obama has little choice but to veto? The Government shutdown didn't hurt them at all.

Isn't that the same poll that predicted a win for Cantor? They always lean right. Even Nate Silver called them out on it.

Texas isn't lost. Especially with the new GOP platform, many Republicans are sickened.

We just can't concede Texas. Some of us live here.

None.

The Davis Campaign is recognizing this. http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/wendy-davis-campaign-manager-karin-johanson-replaced

I live in Georgia. A solidly red state. I'd love it if Jason Carter won the Governorship. I'd love it if Michelle Nunn won the Senate. But I know this is a Red State, and I know that the odds are unlikely. Possible but not likely. Deal looks like a Bridge Troll, and when he smiles for the campaign pictures it looks like it is truly painful. But the state is what the state is. I think we have a slightly better, but by no means good, chance to take the Senate Seat here in Georgia. I think we have a slim chance to win the Governors race, and the polling is much closer than in Texas.

I'm sorry, I wish I could give you better news. But we can't let hope of a miracle guide us as a party. Because if the Senate goes red, then we all suffer for the next two years, and probably much more. If Texas and Georgia remain red, then we are stuck with the jackasses, but the nation as a whole is doing better.

Actually changing campaign managers was a fairly good strategy considering the blunders that came out of the GOP convention. They need to be capitalized on.
A lot of women will speak publicly about being a Republican but with all of this hate rhetoric, nobody is going to see how they actually vote.

Some say Davis is switching back to a more Texas-style campaign from one that had the tenor of a national race.

“Putting Chris Turner in charge of this campaign means there will be a more localized, Texas feel for the campaign, which is in her best interest,” said Bill Miller, an Austin-based political consultant. “She’s behind and she knows it.

Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/2014/06/11/5891880/shakeup-in-wendy-davis-campaign.html#storylink=cpy

Wendy Davis has poll numbers so low that it would take millions of dollars to make a dent in it. Even if we dumped enough money to cut the lead in half, she would still lose handily. I'm not being cruel, I'm being a realist.

Those millions of dollars could save the Senate, with only a little luck. Those same millions might feel good dumped into the hopeless black hole of Texas, but in November, will we feel better knowing we fought the good fight, and lost both Texas and the Senate?

A principle of any warfare, and politics is warfare, is that you pick your battles. You fight where you must, and where you want to engage the enemy. That means we dedicate all available means to defending what we can't afford to lose. It also means we don't get sucked into a battle we can't win, and I'm sorry, but Texas is such a battle.

There are no polls that show Wendy within single digits of her opponent. He's avoiding anything but carefully scripted appearances to reduce to the lowest possible extent the chance of a massive gaff. That leaves him being caught pants down with a sheep for all intents and purposes, and they're not going to let that happen between now and November.

I'm surprised, and I guess I shouldn't be. We would like to believe we are winning, and we are but not in such a dramatic environment as Texas. Look at the Generic ballot. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

Neither side is doing well enough to have more than 50% support. We are doing a little better than the Rethugs, but not nearly enough to declare we're going to sweep them out of office. We just don't have the popular support yet.

Now, you can march from now until November, spending millions on GOTV efforts. Putting people on the phones, putting people on the street corners, and even with all that do you think, honestly believe, that Wendy Davis will win? Because I just don't see it. I doubt, but am not convinced, that Jason Carter will pull it out in Georgia. There the race is much closer, and there you can see the polling results that put it in a few percentage points of victory. It's possible to overcome a four or five point deficit. We've all seen that many times. But there is little chance of overcoming a 12 to 18 point deficit. Wendy would have to run the perfect campaign, well financed, and well coordinated. That we can do. That we can manage. But even that would not be enough. Greg Abbott would have to screw up by the numbers. He would have to offend women, minorities, and the religious right. The only thing I can think of that would save it for Wendy at this point is if we got Video of Greg wearing a leather boy scout leader uniform at a gay bondage club.

Now, you can LOL this, and sit there convinced that Texas really needs the support of the party. You can sit there and pretend that Wendy is going to win. I admire her courage, and again, in my perfect world, she would be the Governor already. But I'm not living in my perfect world. I'm living in this world, where we have to deal with those pesky realities that fiction writers (I know, I am a writer of fiction) manage to gloss over or arrange in such a way to be non existent. Fiction is pleasant, I like writing and reading it. And there is often some truth or a quote that puts things into perspective to be found in fiction. But fiction is not reality. The real world does not work that way.

is a HELL of a lot closer than Cochran vs. Childers, so I'll be rooting for McDaniel so that I can vote for Childers and flip a seat that no one said Dems could ever win in MS. It looks like McDaniel will win, too, in the run-off. McDaniel was at 49.5%, Cochran is at 49%, and incumbents don't usually get as high of a draw in run-offs as their challenger.

Aren't Democrats leading in the polls in at least two of the states Real Clear Politics has them losing? I thought Democrats were leading in both the Alaska and Louisiana Senate races.

The trendline on Grimes/McConnell has only consistently gone in one direction...Mitch needs a second wind to make the race not a horserace...or else he will ultimately lose...just like Cantor. Louisville is the key to the state...and it's growing and getting bluer while the rest of the state is not really growing. We may pull out Kentucky one of these times just because nobody sees it coming and statewide Democrats keep serving ably while the GOP winds itself up to tear itself apart. A late stump for Grimes by popular Democratic governor Steve Beshear closes a lot of gap for Grimes.

They keep flip-flopping on NC. Even in a no toss-up map, it's questionable to call it.

GA? Impossible to call as well. Kingston probably loses to Nunn. Perdue holds a slight lead...the endorsement-shift post-May20 favors Kingston. If Kingston wins the runoff...that one, currently favoring Perdue, probably flips to Nunn.

Perhaps because there isn't any. Just a bunch on unconnected statements, some of which are quite unlikely, some of which are wrong.

HOW do you get to your conclusion? Or should I simply call it a bad guess?

Is the prediction of the Rethugs keeping the house unlikely?

Is the danger of losing the senate unlikely?

Is the assertion that I received emails asking for money to defeat the tea party in Virginia unlikely?

Is my opinion that people are focusing in on one district in the hopes of defeating the tea party once and for all (for about the seventh time) unlikely?

Please elaborate.

where Dems won a lot of unwillable races across this country in the house and senate. The expansion of our party foothold helped pass a lot of big reforms. People on DU are upset that the reforms and the newly elected reps weren't liberal enough, while ignoring the fact that none of that would have passed at all without that broad national mandate.

I support abundance mentality and am optimistic that our party can wage fights in as many districts and races as possible. Grass roots support is a force to be reckoned with. Provided that our efforts are on turnout, while the other side is burning through their Koch dollars, we can beat them. If GOP gets complacent or unhappy with their candidates, and our side is motivated, we win.

The overly cautious national party is obviously focused on keeping the Senate, which includes some blue dogs from red states who DUers don't like. But grass roots ordinary people can support every race everywhere. I live in a dark blue area where liberal dems win reliably big every time, so I can afford to kick a few bucks to competitive races in open seats elsewhere. Picking up even a few house seats is a good thing. The GOP house has blocked way too much.

An open seat like Cantor's between 2 unknown college professors is an opportunity that comes along very rarely.

Democrats didn't win big, so why did it work in 2006? Because the Illegal wiretapping went on, Bush bungled Katrina. Congress had a new slew of scandals including the conviction and sentencing of "Duke" Cunningham.

In other words, the Rethugs appeared more incompetent and tone deaf to the public mood than the Democrats did. So the public mood to vote the bums out was running high. The Democrats made that their message, a responsible Congress was promised if you remember. In 2008, we had John McCain, who ran a far more inept campaign than anyone on our side had a right to hope. First he picked Palin, the darling of the RW set who was a moron. Then he refused to discuss any topic that wasn't somehow linked to the War on Terror because that was all that mattered. The Economic crash started in, and McCain said it was a blip, didn't matter, and he was still going to win the Presidency so he could keep fighting the War on Terror. Then he suddenly realized, about two weeks later while Senator Obama was continuing to discuss the impacts of the Economic crash, that the economy mattered. Then McCain rushes to Washington to show his Bi-Partisan chops, canceling the Debate, only to find nobody wanted to talk to him, Democrat or Republican. Then the debate was back on, and he was left looking out of touch, foolish, and self important.

Those misstep miracles happen, but you can't base your entire strategy on them.

Because that same fifty state strategy didn't save the House of Representatives for us in 2010. It didn't take the House back in 2012. We didn't win the majority of Governor's mansions, nor of State Legislatures. I'm sure someone had the numbers for the County Commissions, but I don't think we won a majority of those either.

This year, we're not going to take the House Back. That is all but impossible. The Rethugs would have to be caught red handed in a sex sting with children at this point. We can save the Senate majority, not to the level we have, but we can save the majority, if we are smart, and if we are willing to admit we're in a tough fight. Otherwise, President Obama's last two years are going to be spent in press conference after announcement that he's again using his Veto to stop the Rethugs from destroying the ACA, the Budget, the Federal Government, and the Nation. Immigration reform is already dead this year, and without holding the Senate, it's going to be dead next term too. Now, do you really want to set up the Presidential election with SOS Clinton explaining that she would have Vetoed all the legislation too? Because then people would have the image of more of the same not getting anything done as the message carried by the DNC Candidate.

In order to stop that, the Senate must remain as a Democratic Chamber, we have to hold the Senate. We have to put all the assets we have into that fight. We can't hold anything back.

I'm hoping at least for a 50-50 draw with Biden breaking the impasse.

I would much rather have a 51 vote clear majority. But I don't think waiting is the best course. Because if our hopes do not come to pass, the disaster will be over us like a tsunami and it will be too late to do anything but regret.

I don't think much of what happened first term was due to political calculation about his re-election. He's been more and more willing to show his frustration over time, but that would be normal for anyone stuck with that Congress. I certainly hope he would be willing to veto absolutely insane bills that pass a Republican controlled Congress, but I fear he'd let too many through because of his attachment to process.

will titillate you enough to make a donation.

Frankly, I just ignore these emails and delete them without reading. Then I give whenever and to whatever I think will be the most effective use of my meager dollars.

and I think he's happy about it. It will now allow him to fast track all his free trade deals he wants so bad.

many small elections in many places, for a wide range of offices? This notion you have that a 'Senate race' should mean no attention paid to the House is unworkable because we don't have 'an election' we have 50 plus elections, and we do not have a 'Senate election' separate from the election of the House.
The Senate is ours. The House might be ours as well. Folks who pout about what is 'expected' to happen in distant elections are folks who should know how to spell Cantor, because they are much like him, great expectations and a lack of vision.

I didn't realize that a misspelled word would totally negate all the information that I was drawing on to reach my predictions. Thank you very much about that. What I'm going to do is bookmark this and set it aside. When November comes, and we lose the Senate as I think we are in danger of doing, I'm going to point out that nobody could have seen it coming, and those who did misspell words which totally negates their warnings.

Thanks again. I won't edit the OP as that would be a lie, and I actually detest lies.

It's Real Right Wing.

How do you use poll numbers from all the organizations, and somehow spin the numbers to the RW? I'm curious, because when there is one that is odd, in other words, doesn't go with the pack, that one is included too. So how does math that factors in all the polling get spun to the RW? I'm not talking about the so called news links, just the collection of the polling data. Polls from Rethug sponsored firms are listed with an R after their name. Polls from Democratic Party sponsered firms are listed with a D after their name. But take a look at the long term numbers below the graph.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_tillis_vs_hagan-3497.html

North Carolina.

Democratic leaning firms, Republican leaning firms, and firms linked with news organizations all bounce fairly close on the time line. A year ago, Senator Hagen was winning hands down. Now, depending on the poll, is going to win, or lose, by a rather narrow margin.

That can safely be said, no matter who is reporting it, to be a close race, a toss up. Now, what can happen to change it? The Rethug might do us a tremendous favor, and melt down under the spotlight and say something blatantly sexist/racist/homophobic. But we can't have as our main plan to win the election the hope that the Rethug will screw up. That outcome is handy when it happens, but not something you can count on. That's sort of like winning the lottery if you get my meaning. You might win the pick 3 in your state, you have the odds of 1 in a thousand. But that isn't exactly a dependable plan.

Option two, we can pour money, and expertise into North Carolina, and fight as if we can't afford to lose the race. Because we can't afford to lose the race. Or we can pour money into long shot candidates. People like Senator Walsh. The only thing that is going to save Senator Walsh is one of those miracles, where the Rethug is caught on camera ranting in a way that the people of Montana will reject. No amount of money is going to overcome the twelve point advantage of the Rethugs, at least not realistically speaking. That's the problem with Wendy Davis. The disadvantage is so large that it would take a ton of money to make a dent in that deficit in a statewide race.

So how is it that the numbers are somehow slewed to the Rethugs? Because if we aren't going to use polling to get the people's mood, and the snapshot of the attitudes, then that's fine. But we have to ban all polling on DU, because even the Democratic leaning companies have Senator Walsh losing in Montana. The Democratic leaning companies have Senator Hagen at or close enough to a tie that it will be a close race unless we do something to turn the opinions of the people around.

I'm not saying a miracle can't happen, or won't happen. I'm saying we can't base our plans and actions on that hope. Because it does happen, but not in every race.