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Republican Civil War Hurtling Towards D Day In Mississippi
June 24 is the date of the next round of exciting primaries. Although we're most interested in seeing if Heather Mizeur can confound the odds and win in Maryland and if Tom Guild can beat a ConservaDem for the Democratic nomination for the open Oklahoma City congressional seat, there are also contests in Colorado, New York, Utah and, of course, the big run-off in Mississippi pitting Dave Brat against Eric Cantor Chris McDaniel against Thad Cochran. Smart money is on McDaniel, more so after the Cantor rhino debacle Tuesday. But it might be too early to totally count poor old Cochran out yet. Cochran may be feeble and too senile to appear in public but Boss Barbour and his machine are still fighting like mad dogs. They think it's all about turning out more easily-manipulated Mississippi voters. That, at best, is a long-shot.
History suggests a vast majority of people won’t bother to vote for this sort of intraparty contest-- no matter how much attention it gets from political insiders or the news media. In presidential general elections, the peak events in American politics, about 6 in 10 of those eligible go to the polls. In midterm Congressional elections, fewer than half do.
Midterm primaries draw fewer than that. In 2010, for example, as the Tea Party wave neared its peak, just one in five showed up for House and Senate primaries.
That roughly matches the proportion of Mississippians participating in last week’s contest. A third candidate drew just enough of the 313,000 votes cast to deny Mr. McDaniel or Mr. Cochran the 50 percent needed for victory.
Odds are that number will drop on June 24. In 168 such cases between 1994 and 2012, a recent study by Fairvote.org found, turnout declined from the primary to the runoff all but six times.
Midterm primaries draw fewer than that. In 2010, for example, as the Tea Party wave neared its peak, just one in five showed up for House and Senate primaries.
That roughly matches the proportion of Mississippians participating in last week’s contest. A third candidate drew just enough of the 313,000 votes cast to deny Mr. McDaniel or Mr. Cochran the 50 percent needed for victory.
Odds are that number will drop on June 24. In 168 such cases between 1994 and 2012, a recent study by Fairvote.org found, turnout declined from the primary to the runoff all but six times.
Supposedly, Team Cochran is hoping Democratic voters will save him. That can't be based on his voting record, which is startlingly right-wing. His ProgressivePunch lifetime crucial vote score is 3.63, more extreme than Utah teabagger Mike Lee, Louisiana sex predator David Vitter or Kansas Koch brothers fave Jerry Moran. Why should a Mississippi Democrat try saving Cochran? Because McDaniel is worse? It's nearly impossible to be worse in any way that will matter. Besides, the 84,000 most likely Dems to vote were the ones who voted in the Democratic primary June 3 and they are excluded from the GOP primary a week from Tuesday. So the brain trust behind the Cochran campaign will try even harder, they say.
- See more at: http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2014/06/republican-civil-war-hurtling-towards-d.html
