2006 National Intelligence Estimate: U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq fueling terrorism

Agency: Iraq war creating worse threat

WASHINGTON - 2006— A stark assessment of terrorism trends by U.S. intelligence agencies has found that the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq has helped spawn a new generation of Islamic radicalism and that the overall terrorist threat has grown since the Sept. 11 attacks.

The classified National Intelligence Estimate attributes a more direct role to the Iraq war in fueling radicalism than that presented either in recent White House documents or in a report released Wednesday by the House Intelligence Committee, said several officials in Washington who were involved in preparing the assessment or have read the final document. The intelligence estimate, completed in April, is the first formal appraisal of global terrorism by U.S. intelligence agencies since the Iraq war began, and it represents a consensus view of the 16 disparate spy services inside government. Titled "Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States," it asserts that Islamic radicalism, rather than being in retreat, has metastasized and spread across the globe.

An opening section of the report, "Indicators of the Spread of the Global Jihadist Movement," cites the Iraq war as a reason for the diffusion of jihad ideology.

The report "says that the Iraq war has made the overall terrorism problem worse," said one U.S. intelligence official.

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WaPo: Spy Agencies Say Iraq War Hurting U.S. Terror Fight

2006 -The latest terrorism assessment paints a portrait of a global war in which Iraq is less the central front of actual combat than a unifying battle cry for disparate extremist groups and even individuals. "It is just those kinetic actions that lead to the radicalization of others," a senior counterterrorism official said earlier this summer. "Surgical strikes? Nothing is surgical about military operations. They tend to have impacts, affects."

That description contrasts with Bush's emphasis this month on offensive military action in Iraq and elsewhere as the United States' principal road to victory in the global war.

"Many Americans . . . ask the same question five years after 9/11," he said in a speech in Atlanta earlier this month. "The answer is yes. America is safer. We are safer because we have taken action to protect the homeland. We are safer because we are on the offensive against our enemies overseas. We're safer because of the skill and sacrifice of the brave Americans who defend our people."

But "a really big hole" in the U.S. strategy, a second counterterrorism official said, "is that we focus on the terrorists and very little on how they are created. If you looked at all the resources of the U.S. government, we spent 85, 90 percent on current terrorists, not on how people are radicalized."


Reid: Contrary to White House PR Campaign, Bush Iraq Policies Have Made America Less Safe

WASHINGTON, Sept. 24, 2006 /U.S. Newswire/ -- Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid today issued the following statement on press reports that the National Intelligence Estimate, the most authoritative summary of the opinion of America's intelligence community, has concluded that the war in Iraq has made the threat of terrorism worse:

"Once again, the American people have learned that the Bush Administration has not been honest with them about the war in Iraq. Press reports say our nation's intelligence services have confirmed that President Bush's repeated missteps in Iraq and his stubborn refusal to change course have made America less safe. No election-year White House PR campaign can hide this truth. It is crystal clear that America's security demands we change course in Iraq. The war in Iraq is now in its fourth year and Congress has yet to ask the tough questions and get the honest answers our nation's security demands. Tomorrow, that will change. With the Democratic Policy Committee's hearings into the conduct of the war in Iraq, we will finally take America in a new direction."