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1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
Mon Jun 30, 2014, 08:38 AM Jun 2014

If insurance is premised on assessing and placing a numeric value to risk ...

shouldn't auto insurance premiums decrease after a accident resulting in a loss?

I think I read/saw/heard of an insurance industry report indicating that the typical policy holder suffered an accident resulting in the vehicle being "totaled out", once every 10-12 years.

If the above is true, it should stand that after a major accident, auto insurance premiums should come down, as that person becomes a more careful (i.e., lower risk) driver.

(Anecdotally, My daughter totaled my vehicle, 6 days after getting her driver's license ... she is now one of the most careful, conscientious drivers that I know.)

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If insurance is premised on assessing and placing a numeric value to risk ... (Original Post) 1StrongBlackMan Jun 2014 OP
No because Gman Jun 2014 #1
Aside from which dipsydoodle Jun 2014 #2
and it is common for those who have had Niceguy1 Jun 2014 #4
Absolutely. Gman Jun 2014 #6
If it did it would make sense to have a minor accident just the sake of it first. dipsydoodle Jun 2014 #9
So your daughter should pay a lower rate than someone who has *never* totaled a vehicle? Romulox Jun 2014 #3
One time I was put in the high risk category. hobbit709 Jun 2014 #5
I think high risk equated to unknown risk Gman Jun 2014 #8
you call a taxi to take your daughter to the airport unblock Jun 2014 #7
If two flips of a coin are both heads the odds for the next flip are still 50/50 KurtNYC Jun 2014 #10

Gman

(24,780 posts)
1. No because
Mon Jun 30, 2014, 08:47 AM
Jun 2014

The risk is calculated on the "universe" of drivers who will continue to have accidents. One accident is a drop in the bucket to the universe of drivers. And one accident is also considered to imply more future risk on an individual basis.

And I'm sure your daughter is careful now. But she is also among the most risky drivers as a whole.

dipsydoodle

(42,239 posts)
2. Aside from which
Mon Jun 30, 2014, 08:55 AM
Jun 2014

the probability of having another accident doesn't change after the previous one.

Niceguy1

(2,467 posts)
4. and it is common for those who have had
Mon Jun 30, 2014, 09:21 AM
Jun 2014

A history of minor accidents to have a major accident one day.j

dipsydoodle

(42,239 posts)
9. If it did it would make sense to have a minor accident just the sake of it first.
Mon Jun 30, 2014, 10:06 AM
Jun 2014

Reminds me of the old chestnut concerning the probability of two bombs being carried aboard a plane. Taking one with you seemingly reduces the probability of another having done so.

hobbit709

(41,694 posts)
5. One time I was put in the high risk category.
Mon Jun 30, 2014, 09:28 AM
Jun 2014

Not because I had any accidents or tickets but because I hadn't been insured for 10 years.
It didn't matter that I hadn't owned a car for those 10 years either. I pointed out that it was called vehicle insurance, not driver insurance, but that didn't matter.

Gman

(24,780 posts)
8. I think high risk equated to unknown risk
Mon Jun 30, 2014, 10:04 AM
Jun 2014

Whereas OTOH, long term policy holders with few or no claims get discounts and even "forgiveness".

unblock

(51,974 posts)
7. you call a taxi to take your daughter to the airport
Mon Jun 30, 2014, 10:02 AM
Jun 2014

two taxis arrive at the same time.

both have been driving 10 years.
one driver has never been in an accident.
the other driver has been in one accident. the vehicle was a total loss.


which cab would you put your daughter in?

KurtNYC

(14,549 posts)
10. If two flips of a coin are both heads the odds for the next flip are still 50/50
Mon Jun 30, 2014, 10:08 AM
Jun 2014

But with humans the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. Certain groups, such as young males, alcoholics and compulsive texters, are simply more inclined to accidents.

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