Last edited Tue Dec 9, 2014, 06:01 PM - Edit history (1)

Beginning at 2:49 they talk about seasonal hiring being a big factor in the big job numbers we saw on Friday for November (321,000 net new payroll jobs). But he never mentioned that the payroll job numbers are SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ( http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth ), as just about all of the other numbers in news reports of the jobs reports. So the Bureau of Labor Statistics does adjust for seasonal hiring (497,000 net new jobs were created in November according to the raw unadjusted numbers).

The seasonally UNadjusted numbers are here by the way (interesting graph, worth the click)
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
The Unadjusted net new job numbers for the last 3 months, are:
September: 692,000; October: 1,051,000; and November: 497,000.

Here's more of the jobs situation over the last year and since the jobs recovery began in March 2010. Note in particular that the INFLATION-ADJUSTED earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers is actually positive, meaning that it's keeping ahead of inflation.

Some key numbers from the Household Survey. See below, and see Table A-1 for the main Household Survey numbers - http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

Over the last year:
+1,113,000 Labor Force
+2,844,000 Employed
-1,731,000 Unemployed
+0.6% Employment-To-Population Ratio aka Employment Rate
-0.2% LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate)
-1.2% Unemployment rate
-1.7% U-6 unemployment rate
-873,000 Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons)
+309,000 Part-Time Workers (Table A-9)
+2,531,000 Full-Time Workers (Table A-9)


Part-Time Workers Who Want Full Time Jobs, as % of All Employed
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"]Nov'13 Aug'14 Oct'14 Nov'14
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"]5.3% 5.0% 4.8% 4.7%


Since the Payroll Job Recovery Began -- Last 57 months thru Nov 30, 2014: 11'14 - 2'10:
(This is the period from when continuous growth of payroll employment began, thru November 30, 2014)
+2,677,000 Labor Force
+8,688,000 Employed
-6,011,000 Unemployed
+0.7% Employment-To-Population Ratio aka Employment Rate
-2.1% LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate)
-4.0% Unemployment rate
-5.6% U-6 unemployment rate
-2,054,000 Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons)
+142,000 Part-Time Workers (Table A-9)
+8,695,000 Full-Time Workers (Table A-9)
+1.65% INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers ( CES0500000031 )
......... the weekly earnings percentage is thru October 2014 because no data for Nov yet

So the economy is clearly improving. That said, it still sucks in my opinion, and is still a long way from "recovered". We are coming out of a very deep hole, but still in the hole.