Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

babylonsister

(171,036 posts)
Wed Dec 17, 2014, 06:40 PM Dec 2014

Obama’s Historic Opening to Cuba Could Cause Florida to Lean Blue...

http://reverbpress.com/politics/obamas-historic-opening-cuba-cause-florida-lean-blue-presidential-races-foreseeable-future/

Obama’s Historic Opening to Cuba Could Cause Florida to Lean Blue in Presidential Races for Foreseeable Future

December 17, 2014
Marc Belisle


snip//

One of the most staunchly conservative demographic groups in Florida has traditionally been the Cuban-American community. But that’s changing rapidly. The 2010 Census calculated that there are 1.2 million Cuban-Americans in Florida, or about 6.5% of the population. They are easily a big enough group of people to tip the state, and thereby, the country. For such a small minority of the overall American population, they have huge national influence. Many of them fled from the Castro government of Cuba. As refugees from a communist country, they tend to have a conservative, free-market outlook. The last decade has seen a significant shift in Cuban-Americans’ political affiliation. As recently as 2002, 64% of registered Cuban-American voters reported that they leaned Republican. In 2013, 47% leaned Republican (which was still more than the 44% of who leaned Democratic). But the shift is ongoing, and is spurred, in part, by the community’s perception that the punitive policies against Cuba are not accomplishing anything.

The Cuban-American community’s view of the embargo has swung dramatically since the 1990s. In 1991, 87% of Cuban-Americans supported the embargo. As recently as 2011, only 44% opposed the embargo. A poll in June, 2014 found that, for the first time, a majority were against it, with 52% opposed. This does not mean that Cuban-Americans have forgiven their mother country for the conditions they fled from. The same poll found that 63% of Cuban-Americans believe that Cuba should remain on the State Department’s list of state sponsors of terrorism. But it does demonstrate that the political winds in Miami-Dade County are shifting powerfully. The 2014 poll showed that a whopping 81% of Cuban-Americans said they would likely vote for candidates who favor replacing the embargo with policies that support human rights.

Arguably, the rapidly shifting opinion of the Cuban-American community in Florida has allowed this historic diplomatic opening to move forward. In a sense, it has been this community, its outsized influence on the electoral college, and political cowardice at the highest levels, that has upheld the policy of keeping Cuba in a diplomatic box, accomplishing nothing, for decades. Obama is a master at reading political winds, and he is wise to take this opening.

The move puts Republicans in a serious bind, which was evident immediately. No one embodies this bind more than Republican Senator Marco Rubio (himself a Cuban-American), who said that he would do everything in his power to block anyone nominated to serve as US ambassador to Cuba. Because, as any Republican knows, nothing says ‘leadership’ like gumming up the gears of government. Rubio is in a complex position. It’s no secret that he might be kinda thinking about maybe running for president. As a Republican, he would have to appeal to the GOP’s nativist base on immigration, deeply unpopular with the broader Hispanic community. Yet, pandering to Republicans on Cuba would have caused him no trouble with the Cuban-American community in Florida a decade ago, but the community is moving in the other direction. Threading that needle is probably impossible. For the GOP generally, holding onto the Cuban-American community, and thus Florida, while soothing the base angry about immigration reform while attempting to reach out to the Hispanic community at large, is a political Rubik’s cube.

Obama’s move lifts a counterproductive policy that has cost unknown opportunities for people in both the US and Cuba. It sustained antagonism in both capitals, encouraging extremism in a dysfunctional relationship for decades beyond any conceivable reason. It’s impossible to predict whether the process of normalizing relations will go smoothly. But Obama has done the country a massive favor that will stand as an enduring legacy. Because Spring Break in Havana is. Going. To. ROCK!
5 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Obama’s Historic Opening to Cuba Could Cause Florida to Lean Blue... (Original Post) babylonsister Dec 2014 OP
Restoring Diplomatic Relations With Cuba Was A Shrewd Move Vogon_Glory Dec 2014 #1
The sole Dem exception I've babylonsister Dec 2014 #3
That's too bad about Sen Menendez.. Fortunately is so much more than about him.. thanks babsis Cha Dec 2014 #4
Even My Republican Uncle Came To Oppose The Embargo In The Early 2000's Vogon_Glory Dec 2014 #5
This is amazing! Rex Dec 2014 #2

Vogon_Glory

(9,110 posts)
1. Restoring Diplomatic Relations With Cuba Was A Shrewd Move
Wed Dec 17, 2014, 06:56 PM
Dec 2014

Restoring diplomatic relations with Cuba was a shrewd move by the Obama administration. It not only makes sense internationally (The US and Cuba share a number of environmental, weather-related, and anti- narco trafficking interests even if they don't like each other very much), but domestically as well.

I suspect that the Obama administration is quite aware as to how much support for the embargo (particularly the travel restrictions) has faded since the Miami hard-liners foisted Shrub on us in the 2000 elections. Many of the hard-liners who supported the embargo have since died off, their children have realized that they can't turn the Cuban political clock back to 1954, and later arrivals far more often than not oppose the embargo and travel restrictions anyway.

There is also hostility to the embargo among the Republicans. That opposition is not only present among the "business Republicans" seeking to profit from the embargo's long-overdue demise, but deep within the gut feelings of so many Republicans who hate what they call "losers."

This latter group should not be ignored. Many of this group not only hate the helpless, the impoverished, the handicapped, and shirtsleeve Americans, but they also foster a not-so-hidden loathing of the Cuban émigré right as "losers," "losers," they'd say because it's been over 60 years since Fidel Castro took power and the right-wing Cuban emigres are still on the outside looking in and not running the island.

I don't doubt that Republicans like Rubio, Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz, and others will try to keep the embargo in place and even try to strengthen it. It's still popular inside the right-wing bubble and on places like Faux Noise Propaganda.

But here's the sting--keeping the embargo, travel restrictions, and the diplomatic deep-freeze might be popular among many of the wing-nutz, but it isn't popular among the rest of the electorate. Keeping the Caribbean cold war in place might not sell to the general electorate in 2016.

babylonsister

(171,036 posts)
3. The sole Dem exception I've
Wed Dec 17, 2014, 07:01 PM
Dec 2014

heard (so far) is Menendez. He's rabidly anti-Cuba and has been forever.

http://news.yahoo.com/democratic-senator-u-shifts-cuba-clearly-intended-bypass-202909038.html;_ylt=A86.JyjqCpJUzl8AZSkPxQt.

Democratic senator: U.S. shifts on Cuba 'clearly intended' to bypass law


And thanks for your thoughtful post!

Vogon_Glory

(9,110 posts)
5. Even My Republican Uncle Came To Oppose The Embargo In The Early 2000's
Wed Dec 17, 2014, 07:24 PM
Dec 2014

Even my right-wing Republican uncle came to oppose the Cuban embargo in the early 2000s. Lest right-wing lurkers think I'm blowing smoke from my orifices, I should point out that my uncle was a member of the Republican Pioneers and a personal acquaintance of George Dubya What's-his-name. My uncle's reasoning was an honest, mostly impartial (He was a Cold Warrior back before the fall of the Soviet Union and the collapse of the Warsaw Pact) assessment of the situation in Cuba as it was by the turn of the millennium. My uncle said that the embargo didn't work, and ought to be discarded.

My uncle and family reminisces aside, I should point out that my uncle was relatively rational and still attached to the world as it actually exists, which would probably make him a RINO in the eyes of the Tea Party types who have turned the Republican Party into the Gathering Of Psychotics that it's become today.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Obama’s Historic Opening ...