Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
Republican debt limit threats: Destructive but not purely crazy, in their own interest
An argument that the 'crazies' like the 'Freedom' Caucus could benefit by wrecking the US economy enough to get the presidency to change parties, as it usually does in bad economic times:
But they are not intrinsically crazy if the goal of the Freedumb Caucus is to both protect their own ass and make it less likely for a Democrat to be elected to the White House in 2016. Extraordinarily destructive and cynical, yes, but they are not completely crazy.
The first goal of assuring their own re-election for most of the HFC is achieved if they can get out of the Republican primary. Right now the Republican primary electorate is extremely pissed at the “Establishment” Republicans as those Republicans have overpromised and under-delivered (ie they could not repeal Obamacare nor impeach Obama for making them think that he would take away all of their guns due to the Democrats controlling some veto points against maximalist Republican goals). Being a Republican who the Establishment (2nd DW dimension positive) hates is a good thing in the Republican primary in R+5 or redder districts. The few HFC in D+0 or bluer districts can only win in waves or due to local idiosyncratic circumstances. They’re irrelevant as long as the rest of the HFC controls the 218th vote.
...
If there is a major debt fight in November and December whose resolution or near simultaneously but in no way shape or form linked to the resolution independent bill leads to half a percent or more of GDP reduction in government spending and transfer payments, the first quarter of 2016 will see an ugly GDP number as a multiplier increases the damage to the economy. It might not tip the country into a recession as the underlying “trend” growth rate may have been 2% or 3% so it would only be a reduction from that “trend” rate (yes, this is serious counterfactual thinking) but it would make the quarter worse than it has to be.
A truly bad 1st quarter of 2016 is amazing news for any Republican candidate who survives the shit show of the primary season. It would establish an electorate that may hate the Republicans but is dissatisified with the economy. The fundamentals would lean red even if their nominee is repulsive. This has worked as the great Republican insight of the past twenty years is that fundamentals (and map making) overpower competence and dominates assumed norms on blame. Responsibility is a sucker’s best and it is often advantageous to be cynical as hell as voters suck at properly attributing blame and thus can’t punish cynicism.
http://www.balloon-juice.com/2015/10/09/destructive-but-not-purely-crazy/
The first goal of assuring their own re-election for most of the HFC is achieved if they can get out of the Republican primary. Right now the Republican primary electorate is extremely pissed at the “Establishment” Republicans as those Republicans have overpromised and under-delivered (ie they could not repeal Obamacare nor impeach Obama for making them think that he would take away all of their guns due to the Democrats controlling some veto points against maximalist Republican goals). Being a Republican who the Establishment (2nd DW dimension positive) hates is a good thing in the Republican primary in R+5 or redder districts. The few HFC in D+0 or bluer districts can only win in waves or due to local idiosyncratic circumstances. They’re irrelevant as long as the rest of the HFC controls the 218th vote.
...
If there is a major debt fight in November and December whose resolution or near simultaneously but in no way shape or form linked to the resolution independent bill leads to half a percent or more of GDP reduction in government spending and transfer payments, the first quarter of 2016 will see an ugly GDP number as a multiplier increases the damage to the economy. It might not tip the country into a recession as the underlying “trend” growth rate may have been 2% or 3% so it would only be a reduction from that “trend” rate (yes, this is serious counterfactual thinking) but it would make the quarter worse than it has to be.
A truly bad 1st quarter of 2016 is amazing news for any Republican candidate who survives the shit show of the primary season. It would establish an electorate that may hate the Republicans but is dissatisified with the economy. The fundamentals would lean red even if their nominee is repulsive. This has worked as the great Republican insight of the past twenty years is that fundamentals (and map making) overpower competence and dominates assumed norms on blame. Responsibility is a sucker’s best and it is often advantageous to be cynical as hell as voters suck at properly attributing blame and thus can’t punish cynicism.
http://www.balloon-juice.com/2015/10/09/destructive-but-not-purely-crazy/
1 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
