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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsToday's LA Times: About the massive El Nino that is too big to fail.
The link: http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-massive-el-nino-is-now-too-big-to-fail-scientist-says-20151009-story.html
By Rong-Gong Lin II
An El Niño that is among the strongest on record is gaining strength in the Pacific Ocean, and climate scientists say California is likely to face a wet winter.
Theres no longer a possibility that El Niño wimps out at this point. Its too big to fail, said Bill Patzert, climatologist for NASAs Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge.
And the winter over North America is definitely not going to be normal, he said.
Just three weeks ago, the National Weather Services Climate Prediction Center raised the odds of California getting doused with a wetter-than-average winter. Southern California now has more than a 60% chance of a wet winter, a 33% chance of a normal winter and less than a 7% chance of a dry winter.
The importance of the El Niño storm of 1997-1998 is now coming into focus as scientists say the weather pattern is returning to Southern California with a vengeance.
The odds of a wet winter further north are increasing too. San Francisco has more than a 40% chance of a wet winter, 33% chance of a normal winter and less than a 27% chance of a dry winter.
PearliePoo2
(7,768 posts)This may be the one time "too big to fail" may be a GOOD thing!
(but please...no catastrophic flooding. Just nice, ground soaking, reservoir-filling, plain old RAIN)
CaliforniaPeggy
(149,296 posts)I too hope for nice ground soaking rain!
question everything
(47,263 posts)We are planning to visit there next week, were hoping for some respite by the middle of October...
No such luck.
CaliforniaPeggy
(149,296 posts)I don't know when this El Nino is supposed to start.
pinboy3niner
(53,339 posts)tularetom
(23,664 posts)The "water year" here in CA begins on 1 October and we had a few showers on that day but since then - nada. Not even a cloud. Our pasture has been brown since about April 2014.
Not that I wouldn't welcome a nice rainy winter but what we really need that we didn't get in the 97-98 season is a lot of snow in the Sierra. The storms that typically accompany one of these El Ninos are of the Pineapple Express type - warm fronts that bring a lot of rain but very little snow to higher elevations.
Well, it's still early in the season. I looked out the window this morning and saw squirrels burying acorns out under the oak trees. That's probably a sign of something but I don't know what.
pinboy3niner
(53,339 posts)cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)When the snow melts slowly, not as much makes it into the lake. When the rain falls hard and melts the snow fast enough that it can't either evaporate or soak into the ground the lake stands a bigger chance of filling up. I live here for the lake and hope beyond hoping that it fills up this winter.
Love ya, Dearest Peg!
olddots
(10,237 posts)This will be a wild winter .