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louis c

(8,652 posts)
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 07:02 AM Mar 2016

Prediction time: The Democrat Could Carry 46 States

As the Republican Party is strategizing to stop Donald Trump, the Conservative Wing of the party is preparing to run a third party candidate if Trump does win the Republican nomination. They may settle on Scott Walker.

If that's the case, Hillary Clinton, the most likely Democratic nominee, will carry nearly every state in the union. By the way, I love Bernie (but voted for Hillary) and I can't ignore the obvious or the danger of not uniting in this very dangerous time.

Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida and every swing state. A solid win in every state carried by Obama. Carry the Senate and pick up House seats. This could be a defining moment in American Political History.

Link to Boston Globe Story:
http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2016/03/19/republican-leaders-map-strategy-derail-trump/OPDfHnTzJJltOBia88puVK/story.html

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Prediction time: The Democrat Could Carry 46 States (Original Post) louis c Mar 2016 OP
If Hillary is the nominee, it will be a bloodbath for Democrats! emsimon33 Mar 2016 #1
oh the DRAMA! riversedge Mar 2016 #3
I had to chuckle. lamp_shade Mar 2016 #6
Confusing personal hated for Hillary with reality will not make it true. bullimiami Mar 2016 #8
You meant to say a victory for Democrats. Auto correct. Let's blame that. Laser102 Mar 2016 #10
or not Fast Walker 52 Mar 2016 #11
See, it's level-headed responses like yours that make it all seem so reasonable. Orrex Mar 2016 #14
DU is such a ridiculous place anymore Itchinjim Mar 2016 #15
Actually, it is not the place. L. Coyote Mar 2016 #39
I thought DU 2008 was bad. Itchinjim Mar 2016 #55
And you know it isn't a $15.00 hr. union job! L. Coyote Mar 2016 #57
Well, there are plenty of bridges for them to lurk under... Orrex Mar 2016 #63
If the Republicans settle on one candidate then totally agree. N/t Dawgs Mar 2016 #16
Is that your agenda here? B Calm Mar 2016 #19
. stonecutter357 Mar 2016 #21
This message was self-deleted by its author anothergreenbus Mar 2016 #26
A Bernie or Bust rebellion is nothing compared to the dmm80 Mar 2016 #29
What? Which Republican talking point is that, #666? L. Coyote Mar 2016 #36
If there are 3 parties running lark Mar 2016 #48
Haven't read anything like that ---this might help --538 has been pretty much on target in the past Always Randy Mar 2016 #49
This also tells me PATRICK Mar 2016 #2
which is funny because i thought he was the master of the deal Fast Walker 52 Mar 2016 #12
Well ... Lurker Deluxe Mar 2016 #58
True... but he seems to be painting himself in a corner... Fast Walker 52 Mar 2016 #60
Why would you even mention Walker?? riversedge Mar 2016 #4
A "free market conservative" third party candidate rogerashton Mar 2016 #5
He ran as the Libertarian candidate for President in 2012. He got < 1% of the popular vote. PoliticAverse Mar 2016 #28
But this year, rogerashton Mar 2016 #32
Sure he may get the votes of some people that won't vote for Trump or Clinton... PoliticAverse Mar 2016 #34
Five percent is not to be sneered at! rogerashton Mar 2016 #35
And like with Nader people will always wonder if those votes would have gone to the other candidate PoliticAverse Mar 2016 #45
You in the market for a bridge? Downwinder Mar 2016 #7
OK, this is starting to get delusional davidn3600 Mar 2016 #9
Yep. n/t Dawgs Mar 2016 #17
Yes, a dose of reality.. mountain grammy Mar 2016 #41
3 person race louis c Mar 2016 #65
I personally am still not convinced that Trump isn't a conspiracy to make us vote for HRC Fast Walker 52 Mar 2016 #13
Are you saying the joke is on us?... PoliticAverse Mar 2016 #31
yeah, something like that Fast Walker 52 Mar 2016 #38
You love Bernie, but voted for Hillary... chwaliszewski Mar 2016 #18
Stopped reading/taking it seriously Right There... djean111 Mar 2016 #30
Hillary Clinton will not carry 46 TheFarseer Mar 2016 #20
True that! mountain grammy Mar 2016 #42
K&R! stonecutter357 Mar 2016 #22
Why such a hurry to write off Bernie? Thespian2 Mar 2016 #23
Hillary is gonna pull at least 48 even with only two parties. ileus Mar 2016 #24
So are you going to change your avatar to "Union No." Springslips Mar 2016 #25
You know, I just don't get the HRC animus from people who are enthusiastic about Obama. lark Mar 2016 #51
The most important thing right now for Labor Unions is the 9th vote on the Supreme Court louis c Mar 2016 #66
Cannot understand why FlaGranny Mar 2016 #27
Clinton/Sanders or Sanders/Clinton, I'm on board all the way. L. Coyote Mar 2016 #44
Sanders is not even on Hillary's long list for VP picks. leftofcool Mar 2016 #53
Nor is Clinton on Bernie's list. Neither ticket would make sense. (n/t) Jim Lane Mar 2016 #61
It's not a good reason TheFarseer Mar 2016 #59
Not going to count chickens... liberal N proud Mar 2016 #33
How much longer Cryptoad Mar 2016 #37
Until he drops out which will probably be right after PA and NY leftofcool Mar 2016 #54
Might I have a list of the people who've been banned for attacking Bernie? TIA! (n/t) Jim Lane Mar 2016 #62
Translation: "I love Bernie but decided to vote against change and the best interests of USA" whereisjustice Mar 2016 #40
"defining moment" indeed.... Indepatriot Mar 2016 #43
A reference to the GE followed by Primary issues IDemo Mar 2016 #46
Just heard on local news radio Freddie Mar 2016 #47
K&R mcar Mar 2016 #50
but then there is Jesse Venture if hillary wins and Bernie loses. Cobalt Violet Mar 2016 #52
The crazies and imbeciles will rally around Trump tabasco Mar 2016 #56
I completely agree with you. Jim Lane Mar 2016 #64

emsimon33

(3,128 posts)
1. If Hillary is the nominee, it will be a bloodbath for Democrats!
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 07:05 AM
Mar 2016

It will make 2014 look like a win for Democrats.

Orrex

(63,086 posts)
14. See, it's level-headed responses like yours that make it all seem so reasonable.
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 08:33 AM
Mar 2016

I'm pretty sure that her election will call down an asteroid strike

Lo! The Hand of God will wipe clean the face of the Earth in advance of evil Hillary's ascendancy.

L. Coyote

(51,129 posts)
39. Actually, it is not the place.
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 09:54 AM
Mar 2016
It's the people who play politics polemically and often without the norms of rational discourse or normal logic tools. To them, get a grip and a perspective.

Imagine if everyone posting had to self identify, say real name and Democratic party membership number .... how quiet this forum would be. Where would the trolls find new jobs?

Response to emsimon33 (Reply #1)

 

dmm80

(38 posts)
29. A Bernie or Bust rebellion is nothing compared to the
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 09:33 AM
Mar 2016

turnout problem. I doubt her lack of energy will motivate voters. The other side have a shitload of voters. If Hillary doesn't fix this problem soon, the only thing that'll be inevitable is her defeat. The Hill side should understand that it'll take more than "blind faith" and media bias to fix this.

lark

(23,003 posts)
48. If there are 3 parties running
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 10:04 AM
Mar 2016

Trump, conservative Repug and Dem, Dem wins every time, even with HRC. The only way Dems don't win is if HRC is indicted at the last minute and the party can't get Biden (or Bernie?) on the ballot. Think you are letting your anger at her corporatism blind you to reality.

PATRICK

(12,227 posts)
2. This also tells me
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 07:17 AM
Mar 2016

Trump is not making deals with insiders, yet. Ironically the Koch's may also be backing Tea Party candidates Trump would be using to threaten the establishment. Now I can appreciate their headache and their spinning from one losing strategy to another, or are they trying to save the whole Tea party debacle from a Trump loss by "saving" the GOP and hijacking the... what should we call it?..whole apparatus.

Parties have split like this before, such as the Democrats(Secessionist/Unionist) splitting to insure the election of Lincoln. That did not work out well at all for them or the country, but the current GOP doesn't give a sh*t about consequences. However, in these more milquetoast times I expect some accommodation/compromise/surrender will be made to maximize success. Nor does any third party seem to promise anything more than venting valves that would really change the result. Downticket panic is what they must avoid, thus no split even though primary challenges are doing that anyway.

Lurker Deluxe

(1,031 posts)
58. Well ...
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 11:34 AM
Mar 2016

Certainly no defense of Trump, but making a deal is best done from a position of strength. Up until recently the powers that be thought they had no reason to "deal" with Trump. The stronger he gets the better position he is in to make a deal.

I am sure he knows this, as vile as he is ... he is not stupid.

rogerashton

(3,918 posts)
32. But this year,
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 09:38 AM
Mar 2016

he is a more "plausible" candidate than either of the Republican leaders.

Remember how, a year ago, a Trump nomination was inconceivable?

PoliticAverse

(26,366 posts)
34. Sure he may get the votes of some people that won't vote for Trump or Clinton...
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 09:41 AM
Mar 2016

but it will still be < 5% of the total vote.

rogerashton

(3,918 posts)
35. Five percent is not to be sneered at!
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 09:46 AM
Mar 2016

The typical popular-vote margin in presidential elections is about 48-47. So 48 minus 5 is 43. Which is what Clinton got in 91, if my memory serves.

PoliticAverse

(26,366 posts)
45. And like with Nader people will always wonder if those votes would have gone to the other candidate
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 09:58 AM
Mar 2016

or if those voters would have just sat out the election.

 

davidn3600

(6,342 posts)
9. OK, this is starting to get delusional
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 08:06 AM
Mar 2016

It may be fun to think about this kind of thng....

But keep in mind this is all absolutely complete speculation. Lots of assumptions being made without much statistical data to back them up. The whole situation on the GOP side is very fluid. Too many unknowns. Emotions are high and things are being said out of frustration and anger and not fully serious. It's very difficult to get an accurate picture right now.

You have to remember at least 47% of this nation will vote for the Republican candidate, whoever that may be. It's automatic these days because they will be voting AGAINST the Democrat. Just because some conservatives don't like Trump doesn't mean they are going to start voting for Hillary and support liberal ideas and vote in a straight Democrat ticket. Politics doesn't work that way.

If you think Hillary is going to win 47 state.....yeah, it's probably time to put down the pipe for awhile. In 2006-2008 there was statistical data suggesting a massive Democratic wave. Right now, that same data does NOT show a wave. In fact, our turnout numbers so far are down 25% compared to 2008. If that holds, retaking control of the House is mathematically impossible.

mountain grammy

(26,571 posts)
41. Yes, a dose of reality..
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 09:55 AM
Mar 2016

and the reality is zombie Republicans who HATE anything Democratic, or as they say, Democrat, and they always vote. But I don't think it's 47% of the nation, I think it's 47% of registered voters who vote, maybe around 30% of the population. That's pretty much what Hitler won with and, with plenty of gerrymandering, that's how Republicans win.
In my opinion, a nation of 300 million, 30% of whom are in lockstep and hate everyone else, is a bit unstable.

 

louis c

(8,652 posts)
65. 3 person race
Mon Mar 21, 2016, 03:41 PM
Mar 2016

My Prediction is that Trump wins the Republican Nomination, Hillary the Democratic Nomination and the mainstream Republicans run a ticket of Perry and Colburn using the Constitutional Party 50 State access.

Final result:

Hillary 43%
Trump 30%
Perry 27%

47 states go Blue.

We'll see how this works. Book mark this thread.

TheFarseer

(9,308 posts)
20. Hillary Clinton will not carry 46
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 08:53 AM
Mar 2016

The south east and states like NE, KS, UT, ID, OK are not voting for her if Pol Pot was the republican nominee.

lark

(23,003 posts)
51. You know, I just don't get the HRC animus from people who are enthusiastic about Obama.
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 10:13 AM
Mar 2016

HRC would govern very much the same as he is doing, maybe more liberal, more fight against the Repugs, but basically the same. I moan and complain about Obama not having a spine and being too corporatist, at least Hillary has a spine. Now, is she my first choice, hell no. I voted for Bernie and know he's the best person running for president and would make the best president. It just doesn't look like he's able to overcome the Dem establishment. Hope I'm wrong, hope he's our guy in the general, but will vote for the D in the general because our country as we know it would fundamentally change if R's were in charge of all 4 parts of the government and you know the Dems wouldn't fight them hard enough and would let whoever put in 2 more Scalia's when Bader Ginsburg is no longer able to serve.

 

louis c

(8,652 posts)
66. The most important thing right now for Labor Unions is the 9th vote on the Supreme Court
Mon Mar 21, 2016, 03:46 PM
Mar 2016

We were facing annihilation in the Freidrick Case in California until Scalia died.

What labor unions need now is a Democratic President. Any Democratic President.

The first thing you need to learn about politics is how to count.

Math is more important than philosophy.

FlaGranny

(8,361 posts)
27. Cannot understand why
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 09:30 AM
Mar 2016

you would vote Hillary if you love Bernie. Makes no sense. I think many, many people have done that. If everyone who "loved" Bernie had voted for him, he would be in the lead.

L. Coyote

(51,129 posts)
44. Clinton/Sanders or Sanders/Clinton, I'm on board all the way.
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 09:58 AM
Mar 2016

It will be fun to sit back with my popcorn when the die-hards here finally realize who the team is this year! I'll be enjoying popcorn as they eat their bitter words.

TheFarseer

(9,308 posts)
59. It's not a good reason
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 12:01 PM
Mar 2016

But I believe many people think they win a cookie and get a nice pat on the head if they vote for the winner and we have been told for almost a year she will be the winner by all the talking heads. Also, at this point even the biggest bernie fans have to admit bernie is very unlikely to win.

Cryptoad

(8,254 posts)
37. How much longer
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 09:49 AM
Mar 2016

will these ugly attacks against HRC be allowed on DU. If u attack Bern like that u are banned!

 

Indepatriot

(1,253 posts)
43. "defining moment" indeed....
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 09:57 AM
Mar 2016

Defining us as hapless sheep, subservient to the monied elite. Unable to recognize and seize the opportunity to be led by an actual public servant.......I've not been this disillusioned by my fellow Americans since the run up to the Iraq Slaughter.

Freddie

(9,232 posts)
47. Just heard on local news radio
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 10:03 AM
Mar 2016

KYW (Philly) which is true news with no political slant...that the big cheeses in the GOP are now deciding whether to seriously challenge Trump at the convention or take their losses in the White House and concentrate on salvaging the House and Senate races. Either way sounds like a win for us.

 

tabasco

(22,974 posts)
56. The crazies and imbeciles will rally around Trump
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 10:41 AM
Mar 2016

and he has a frighteningly good chance to win. All this talk about the Democrat being a shoo-in is delusional happy-talk from la-la land.

 

Jim Lane

(11,175 posts)
64. I completely agree with you.
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 02:43 PM
Mar 2016

The Democrat is a shoo-in in the situation hypothesized in the OP, namely a serious GOP split. If the election is Trump vs. Walker vs. Clinton or Trump vs. Walker vs. Sanders, the Democratic nominee wins easily. Heck, I'm a natural-born citizen over 35, and even though I've never held elective office, Trump vs. Walker vs. Lane is a Democratic win.

I don't expect a serious three-way campaign, though. No one but the two major party nominees will break 5% of the vote (the matching funds threshold). In that scenario, our biggest problem might be the complacency that you speak against. Trump, unlike a Cruz or a Romney, could put in play some of the "blue wall" states in the Rust Belt, like Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. A Republican who takes those states plus Ohio and holds all of Romney's 2012 states gets to precisely 270 electoral votes. This obviously doesn't mean Trump is a shoo-in -- merely that he could be much more competitive than many DUers seem to think.

Just as background, here are Obama's margins over Romney in the states I mentioned: Michigan, 9.5%; Ohio, 3.0%; Pennsylvania, 5.4%; Wisconsin, 7.0%. Those states could flip if there are enough white working-class voters who still feel economically insecure, who believe that their status hasn't improved all that much in eight years of a Democratic presidency, and who resent the establishments of both parties. I'm not even counting the racists because most of them are voting Republican in any event.

As an amusing possibility, suppose Trump wins all those states and, for good measure, even reverses Romney's 5.8% loss in Iowa. If there are enough angry Hispanics in Arizona to reverse Obama's 9.1% loss there, then the Democratic candidate wins the Presidency despite the Rust Belt defections.

My bottom line is that Trump has defied just about all the experts' predictions in getting as far as he has so far. I'm not writing off his chances of defying the predictions in the general election.

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