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Tab

(11,093 posts)
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 06:09 PM Mar 2016

We're all enjoying the implosion of the GOP, but what then?

They're not going to convert to Democrats, so something will rise up in its place. Power abhors a vacuum. It's hard to imagine it'd be worse, but it's also hard to imagine it might be better.

Best would be if the centrist Republicans reassert themselves, but is that likely to happen?

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We're all enjoying the implosion of the GOP, but what then? (Original Post) Tab Mar 2016 OP
There is no implosion. Trump will win and, unless Bernie wins, Republicans will vote Trump yourpaljoey Mar 2016 #1
Trump is not winning the GE. Either Dem nominee will defeat him easily. LonePirate Mar 2016 #24
Let's keep the focus on a Democratic Win.... FarPoint Mar 2016 #27
I really don't know why you can be so sure Bernie would beat Trump Skittles Mar 2016 #29
I disagree. Trump will not win brush Mar 2016 #30
Millions of Republican WOMEN and Independents will not vote for Trump pnwmom Mar 2016 #37
Oh pkease. Trump doesn't stand a chance this fall against either democratic nominee. AgadorSparticus Mar 2016 #40
I'll post this again, it's not going anywhere hibbing Mar 2016 #2
All that free floating rage is going to go somewhere Warpy Mar 2016 #3
We are a long way from that sort of realignment. BillZBubb Mar 2016 #9
True. bvf Mar 2016 #16
Jury Results: cui bono Mar 2016 #31
Thanks! bvf Mar 2016 #34
And just think, this is the site where they contain their anger! cui bono Mar 2016 #35
I'm hoping the Third Waywards will take it over and leave Democrats alone. n/t Wilms Mar 2016 #4
The days of the Rockefeller Repub are over charlyvi Mar 2016 #5
i think some of the bankrollers from the GOP will join up with the Democrats 0rganism Mar 2016 #6
That has already happened--but without the collapse of the republican party. BillZBubb Mar 2016 #10
expect a lot more of that 0rganism Mar 2016 #13
It's an interesting complex subject. Laura PourMeADrink Mar 2016 #7
First there are not many centrist republicans left. Most of the party is now far right. BillZBubb Mar 2016 #8
More correctly, there aren't as many centrist republicans left IN OFFICE Tab Mar 2016 #11
Since i have predicted this for years nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #12
I think the process you suggest is already in the works. BillZBubb Mar 2016 #17
Yes, it is a classic party realignment nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #18
If that happens it really would be "the world turned upside down". nt BillZBubb Mar 2016 #25
I don't expect the Rs to survive nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #26
There is a very good chance the repug party will be destabilized by their presidential . . . brush Mar 2016 #32
If we had better candidates we could convince the moderates to join us like a reverse Nixonian craigmatic Mar 2016 #14
What do you get when you dumb down America? Kip Humphrey Mar 2016 #15
You get America. sofa king Mar 2016 #38
I fear the implosion of the other Party... kentuck Mar 2016 #19
Some may join the Democrats and pull our platform to the right davidn3600 Mar 2016 #20
In Europe far-right parties have formed or gained popularity. pampango Mar 2016 #21
Reports of the death of the republican party have been greatly exaggerated. tabasco Mar 2016 #22
I'm not calling an implosion yet Generic Brad Mar 2016 #23
Maybe obstructionism will end liberal N proud Mar 2016 #28
Count the number of senators, representatives, governors and legislatures they control rurallib Mar 2016 #33
I'm thinking a split is possibe and a new "moderate" party may develop made up of moderates from Tierra_y_Libertad Mar 2016 #36
Corporate dems will take their place where they belong 2pooped2pop Mar 2016 #39

yourpaljoey

(2,166 posts)
1. There is no implosion. Trump will win and, unless Bernie wins, Republicans will vote Trump
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 06:13 PM
Mar 2016

They will vote FOR Trump or AGAINST Hillary,
and Trump will win.

FarPoint

(12,207 posts)
27. Let's keep the focus on a Democratic Win....
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 08:10 PM
Mar 2016

Hillary Clinton or Mr. Sanders, either one, will beat Trump.

brush

(53,467 posts)
30. I disagree. Trump will not win
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 08:32 PM
Mar 2016

Jorge Ramos, the noted Latino American journalist recently was quoted as saying that Latino Americans hate Trump.

His support among Latinos is in the low teens. W had 30% and only "won" with Rove's and Jeb's cheating.

No national candidate can win with that low number of Latinos voting for him/her. And don't mention African Americans, gays, Asian Americans, progressive whites, women Native Americans — in other words, the Obama Coalition votes — which Trump isn't getting either.

Face it, there just aren't enough conservative, angry, racist whites to win a national election anymore. The demographic of the country has changed, they are aging out and the country is getting browner as we speak. Romney's performance in 2012 showed us that.

Trump has no chance against Sanders or Clinton.

pnwmom

(108,925 posts)
37. Millions of Republican WOMEN and Independents will not vote for Trump
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 09:26 PM
Mar 2016

and some of them will be voting for Hillary in the privacy of their voting booth, no matter what their husbands think.

Mitt Romney carried majorities of both white men and white women -- but we're already seeing a strong gender gap between white men and women, with white women much more likely to vote Democratic.

This gender gap will only get worse when Trump turns his full focus on Hillary.

hibbing

(10,076 posts)
2. I'll post this again, it's not going anywhere
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 06:13 PM
Mar 2016

As much as I wish it was true, they aren't going anywhere, at least not anytime soon. Look at how many state legislatures and governors they have. I hope I'm wrong about it though.

Peace

Warpy

(110,900 posts)
3. All that free floating rage is going to go somewhere
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 06:14 PM
Mar 2016

so expect a bunch of violent splinter parties. The mainstream Republicans will move to the Democrats, necessitating the eventual creation of another party for progressives, usually coalescing around one or two issues.

That's how it's happened in the past when the devils they sold out to have taken over the smaller parties, first the Federalists and then the Whigs.

BillZBubb

(10,650 posts)
9. We are a long way from that sort of realignment.
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 06:23 PM
Mar 2016

The old mainstream republicans already joined the Democrats as the "Third Way".

 

bvf

(6,604 posts)
16. True.
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 06:53 PM
Mar 2016

More like an ooze that has escaped the attention of most people. Still happening. Just look around here. Kissinger apologists and the "no new taxes" brigade, to cite just two examples.

cui bono

(19,926 posts)
31. Jury Results:
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 08:33 PM
Mar 2016

Juror #7 here. I didn't mean your post when I said that Skinner wants all the rudeness to remain. I meant that all the rude a-holes have been allowed to return and stay and run rampant without any consequences.


AUTOMATED MESSAGE: Results of your Jury Service

Mail Message
On Mon Mar 21, 2016, 12:15 AM an alert was sent on the following post:

True.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=7700416

REASON FOR ALERT

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.

ALERTER'S COMMENTS

Blatant callout of another DUer from a post on another forum. Isn't this something Skinner put to rest the other day? Apparently not. Hide this!

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Mon Mar 21, 2016, 12:29 AM, and the Jury voted 1-6 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: 1) There is no call-out of anyone.
2) If there were, it is not against the rules to mention another DU'er by name.
3) Skinner's changes make hiding posts fairly meaningless.
So I'm voting to leave.
Juror #2 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No need to refer to Clinton supporters as Kissinger apologists=--I have seen this over and over.
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: How is the jury supposed to know that this is calling out another DUer from a post on another forum? The only way they could know is if they were stalking this poster.
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: The average reader would not know this is a callout therefore I'm for leaving
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Smug and snarky but isn't directed at anyone in this thread per say did not see post from other forum as alerter mentioned.
Juror #7 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: What post on what other forum??? It's not blatant if people don't know what you are talking about. I don't see any call out. Why are you bothering to try to hide something like this, you can't get time outs any more. Too bad Skinner wants all the rudeness and smearing to remain on here.

Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the future.

 

bvf

(6,604 posts)
34. Thanks!
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 08:54 PM
Mar 2016

There are some really angry people around here lately.

There are better ways to cope than to alert everything in sight, but that's their choice.

cui bono

(19,926 posts)
35. And just think, this is the site where they contain their anger!
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 09:07 PM
Mar 2016

They have other places where they let it all out.

.

charlyvi

(6,537 posts)
5. The days of the Rockefeller Repub are over
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 06:16 PM
Mar 2016

They are Dems now. I think their party will survive as a rump regional party. They will be in the wilderness for awhile, like the Dems were after '68. I only hope it lasts until a new census is taken so Dems can overturn the current gerrymandering. But really, who knows!


0rganism

(23,855 posts)
6. i think some of the bankrollers from the GOP will join up with the Democrats
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 06:17 PM
Mar 2016

in the wake of the collapse of the Republican party, we're likely to see the Democrats emerge as a dominant centrist party, liberal on domesticv social issues but hawkish on foreign policy and neoliberal on economics. don't think the kingmakers of the GOP are going to let their influence vanish in a puff of Trump farts, they'll want a piece of that sweet global trade policy action. this will lead to continued tension between the economic progressives and the Democratic establishment, and the economic progressives will see some minor concessions to mitigate the periodic 4-year revolts, but overall things will proceed much as they have in the Obama years -- and really, we could do a lot worse than that.

BillZBubb

(10,650 posts)
10. That has already happened--but without the collapse of the republican party.
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 06:25 PM
Mar 2016

GOP bankrollers now back Third Way Democrats.

0rganism

(23,855 posts)
13. expect a lot more of that
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 06:37 PM
Mar 2016

and really, that seems to be what most people want: more of the same, and moreso

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
7. It's an interesting complex subject.
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 06:20 PM
Mar 2016

Strikes me that there are four main wings:

1. Uber Religious wing,
2. Bigotry wing,
3 Average-Joe-government-screwing-with-my-pay-check" wing
4. The more affuent fiscal conservative doesn't care about social issues wing (CNBC types)


Strikes me that Trump's hitting all of them (faked it enough with #1)

He used to be a Democrat - I often wonder if he had stayed one. Might have gotten all Dems plus #3 and #4

BillZBubb

(10,650 posts)
8. First there are not many centrist republicans left. Most of the party is now far right.
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 06:21 PM
Mar 2016

A few talk more moderately, but they act and vote as far right as the rest. They put up a guy like jeb? or rubio or kasich and try to pass him off as a centrist. They aren't.

The suggestion that the republicans are imploding is misleading. The only place they are really in disarray is with their presidential pick. I think this is where the "power abhors a vacuum" comes into play. There wasn't any appealing candidate available to the party. Every one of the wannabe's had glaring flaws. That opened the door for the TV star, billionaire, bombast to come in and steal the spotlight. The power player jumped into the arena.

If Trump wins the presidency, the republicans will rally around him and he will for the most part do what the party wants done. If Trump loses the presidency, the republicans take a small hit in the down ballot elections, but they still are a powerful force in the country.

Tab

(11,093 posts)
11. More correctly, there aren't as many centrist republicans left IN OFFICE
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 06:28 PM
Mar 2016

Because most got voted out.

Could they return?

The right wing extremists have sunk the party. The question is what happens to the right wing extremists now?

Warpy had it right that all this uncontrolled rage has to go somewhere.

Even if Bernie or Hillary wins, and the GOP implodes, something else will rise up. I'd like to think it can't be any worse, but who the hell knows?

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
12. Since i have predicted this for years
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 06:31 PM
Mar 2016

there are two things this could proceed...

1.- The D side continues rightward and absorbs the Rs (and i do not mean the crazies, the business faction), The crazies will form a third party that will remain as unimpressive in national politics as the libertarians. This will be the end of the democratic realignment

Ergo, the left wing of the democratic party either forms a party, or joins one wth infrastructure, that would be the greens.

2;.- Read what I wrote above, except that the dems continue to split, and the crisis is far less obvious, but is there. And after a few cycles of political instability, both major parties go away.

In the best case, we have reforms to the electoral system that will allow a more diverse viable party system .

Suffice it to say, I give trump very good odds, because of precisely this instability.

BillZBubb

(10,650 posts)
17. I think the process you suggest is already in the works.
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 07:02 PM
Mar 2016

Ever since the DLC gained influence, it has been pulling a segment of the republican coalition to the Democrats. The cost has been Democratic acquiescence to the demands of Wall Street and the corporate sector. As this continues, the left of the Democratic party is without a compatible home. The stress point is there for a split to occur. This election may be the one where the split grows more significant.

As you say, the Greens are a possible landing spot for the left. The problem is, like the Liberal party in England, the Green/Left party would run a distant third to the two major parties. If it could elect enough representatives to keep either of the major parties from getting a majority in the House, it could have an oversized influence on legislation. Winning the presidency, though would be a long time coming.

I don't see your second scenario as likely.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
18. Yes, it is a classic party realignment
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 07:03 PM
Mar 2016

and during the bush years I went there, and even said, (assuming the Rs survived) that the Rs would become once again the party of labor. They started there.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
26. I don't expect the Rs to survive
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 08:09 PM
Mar 2016

it is that serious. I am starting to question whether the donkeys will as well. This is medium term. But if they did, it would be far from unprecedented. This is the sixth party realignment. A lot of it also has to do with social media. It has accelerated the process

brush

(53,467 posts)
32. There is a very good chance the repug party will be destabilized by their presidential . . .
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 08:48 PM
Mar 2016

loss but they have so many state houses and state legislatures that any splintering will not take place immediately after this election cycle when Trump loses. And he will lose.

Jorge Ramos, the noted Latino American journalist recently was quoted as saying that Latino Americans hate Trump.

His support among Latinos is in the low teens. W had 30% and only "won" with Rove's and Jeb's cheating.

No national candidate can win with that low number of Latinos voting for him/her. And don't mention African Americans, gays, Asian Americans, progressive whites, women, Native Americans — in other words, the Obama Coalition votes — which Trump isn't getting either.

Face it, there just aren't enough conservative, angry, racist whites to win a national election anymore. The demographics of the country has changed, conservative, angry, racist whites are aging out and the country is getting browner as we speak. Romney's performance in 2012 showed us that.

Trump has no chance against Sanders or Clinton so the chance of the Democratic Party splitting after winning the White House and possibly the Senate is remote no matter how many wish to see it happen.

 

craigmatic

(4,510 posts)
14. If we had better candidates we could convince the moderates to join us like a reverse Nixonian
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 06:38 PM
Mar 2016

southern strategy but Sanders is to concerned with class and wall street to reach out and Hillary sees them as enemies. I hate to say this but we need a Bill Clinton type of candidate who cold bring them in and keep them here.

sofa king

(10,857 posts)
38. You get America.
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 09:33 PM
Mar 2016

We've been bouncing off the bottom since long before criminal Warren Harding promised a "return to normalcy," which isn't even a word.

pampango

(24,692 posts)
21. In Europe far-right parties have formed or gained popularity.
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 07:16 PM
Mar 2016

The mainstream conservative parties still exist but are declining compared to the far-right. Of course, European countries frequently are multi-party parliamentary democracies. How the far-right rising, mainstream right falling will evolve in our 2-party system will be interesting and probably dangerous.

 

tabasco

(22,974 posts)
22. Reports of the death of the republican party have been greatly exaggerated.
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 07:22 PM
Mar 2016

Fascists tend to unite and rally behind their "strong leader." All modern republicans have fascist tendencies, so the imbeciles, crazies and haters will rally behind Trump and very possibly elect him president. The belief of an easy Democratic victory because of chaos in the republican party is la-la land wishful thinking.

Generic Brad

(14,270 posts)
23. I'm not calling an implosion yet
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 07:33 PM
Mar 2016

There are definitely cracks in the facade though. After their convention the state of their party should become more clear.

rurallib

(62,342 posts)
33. Count the number of senators, representatives, governors and legislatures they control
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 08:54 PM
Mar 2016

Look and see who is favored in many of those races.

Then think that "implosion" over once again.

Then look at the number of crazy laws that continue to get enacted on the state level versus the amount of progressive legislatiion. Then think that implosion over once more.

 

Tierra_y_Libertad

(50,414 posts)
36. I'm thinking a split is possibe and a new "moderate" party may develop made up of moderates from
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 09:11 PM
Mar 2016

both parties.

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