General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhy this election is over
The Trump campaign can pivot, attack, push conspiracy theories, rant and rave, or have their dope read somebody else's words from a teleprompter all they want. They can't come back.
Hillary is trusted by just 27% in some polls. Hillary is perceived as a regular politician. Count me as part of that 27% and count me as someone who thinks this is the greatest country in the world, not in spite of our politicians, but because of them. Distrust of government, which is run by politicians, is a result of decades of tearing each other down every election cycle. When the candidates willingly give the perception to the voters of the lesser of two evils, in the end, an overwhelming majority of voters still figure the final choice is evil. Then there are pitched battles for every issue. Compromise is viewed as a sell out. So, here's my point. Hillary's negatives are baked in. The other side has thrown everything at her for the past 30 years. Either you trust her or you don't. Nothing will change on that front in the next 82 days.
Here's what's also baked in. Just as many, if not more voters, distrust Trump. But that's not really his problem, because as I've mentioned, people generally distrust everyone who runs for office, and Trump is no different. Here's Trump's problem. 70% of the registered voters think he's fucking nuts. Seventy Percent. They may call it "temperament" in the polling question, but everyone knows it means "fucking nuts". As the general public paid attention during and just after the convention, Trump solidified that impression in the voters' minds. There's no turning back.
In the end, a vast majority of voters will choose a perception of more of the same rather than a man who has confirmed that he's completely out of the mainstream of any semblance of emotional and intellectual normalcy. In the final analysis, the voters have already chosen untruthful over unstable.
Nothing either side can do will change those perceptions.
Please don't flame me. This is just an objective analysis. I love Hillary. I supported her in 2008. I have argued with my white, blue collar male friends (Trump's demographic) over their misconception of her trust. I supported her this election cycle. I knocked on doors, sent her money and have followed her career at least since 1992.
I'm with her.
Trust in Government Link:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/5392/trust-government.aspx
lonestarnot
(77,097 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)The latter's not too crazy and just may be possible, but at very least we must take as many seats as possible. Added to all those being left by tea-partiers who are not running for reelection, and possibly a strong message of rejection by GOP voters, the House makeup and dynamics will change even if the right keeps the majority.
louis c
(8,652 posts)Fear is a great motivator. And there's plenty in Trump to be afraid of.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)turn, however, to an advertising strategy of telling lies as many times as necessary until they're believed against Hillary/Democrats, as well as of the classic winning bad-guy tactic of confusing the electorate until they're unsure who said/did what.
Add a good terrorist attack or other scare to that and we could be living our own morning-after-Brexit shock. But much worse.
It's not over until it's over.
louis c
(8,652 posts)Once you are convinced that someone's nuts, you can't vote for him for President.
His nuts number is a clear majority
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)I've been wrong it's always been from overestimating the electorate. Trump's newest turn to alt-right nationalism has me feeling pretty cheerful again, though. COULD they possibly lose control of the House?
Jeffersons Ghost
(15,235 posts)louis c
(8,652 posts).....and what voters believe 82 days before an election in real time are quite different.
sellitman
(11,605 posts)Vote for me because he's effing nuts.
louis c
(8,652 posts)Aviation Pro
(12,132 posts)....don't do it. Putin's Lapdog must be crushed to the ground so that he becomes an obscure footnote in American history and his bowel 'movement' along with him.
Saviolo
(3,280 posts)It can't be said enough times:
GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTV
Especially on downticket races. Try to give Hillary a full tool belt instead of the hostile Congress that Obama struggled with.
stopbush
(24,393 posts)by interest in the presidential race. Ballot initiatives and down-ticket races have little to do with people being inspired to vote.
Rs will stay home and not vote for Trump. That is why Rs are so worried about their down-ticket chances - the raw numbers won't be there.
What won't happen? A large R turnout that will not vote for Trump but will turn out anyway to vote for the down-ticket R candidates.
Stuart G
(38,414 posts)Say it any way you want...that sentence is it..you said it, others have said it and it is true....Use words like "dangerous" "unstable" "unreliable" or whatever you can think of. The sentence in the title is it, and nothing is going to change..pivot or not, debate or not, whoever is in charge or not in charge..Most of us have decided the above, and it is the truth............
end of rant..
randome
(34,845 posts)[hr][font color="blue"][center]Stop looking for heroes. BE one.[/center][/font][hr]
sarisataka
(18,501 posts)In 2004 & 2008 getting 30% of the votes of registered voters would have the election in a dead heat. In most prior elections it would have been enough to win.
Never assume victory.
awoke_in_2003
(34,582 posts)The best post I've seen in a while.