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Freddie Stubbs

(29,853 posts)
Wed Oct 21, 2015, 08:37 AM Oct 2015

Poll shows Clinton with commanding lead among Florida Democrats

Source: Politico Florida

Hillary Clinton dominates the Democratic field in Florida, where she receives more than half the likely primary vote and has more than triple the support of second-place challenger Bernie Sanders, according to a new poll.

The University of North Florida survey shows Vice President Joe Biden — who is flirting with a potential presidential bid — a distant third with just 11.2 percent of the likely Democratic vote. Clinton, the former secretary of state, gets 54.6 percent of the primary vote compared to 15.9 percent for Sanders, the Vermont senator.

“The Democratic primary in Florida is Clinton Country,” said Michael Binder, a UNF political science professor who oversaw the survey of 632 likely Democratic voters in Florida. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.87 percentage points.

“The first Democratic debate showed the race is Hillary Clinton and everyone else,” Binder said. “Sure, Bernie Sanders is nice and good for the very liberal wing of the party but in our poll, even among very liberal voters, she’s winning handily.”

Read more: http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/florida/2015/10/8580306/poll-shows-clinton-commanding-lead-among-florida-democrats

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Poll shows Clinton with commanding lead among Florida Democrats (Original Post) Freddie Stubbs Oct 2015 OP
Looking good! Thinkingabout Oct 2015 #1
Excellent! BlueCaliDem Oct 2015 #2
I can hardly wait for the next "debate". Tarheel_Dem Oct 2015 #16
Yeah well, you know, Florida. marble falls Oct 2015 #3
President Obama won Florida both times Freddie Stubbs Oct 2015 #4
As a Florida Democrat, I agree FLPanhandle Oct 2015 #5
How long will that lead remain when those focusing in Florida, begins to look at Social Security? DhhD Oct 2015 #6
"even among very liberal voters, she’s winning handily.” riversedge Oct 2015 #7
Poll states Bernie with commanding lead. retrowire Oct 2015 #8
Oct 21 N. Florida Univ Poll: Clinton 54.6 Sanders 15.9 Biden 11.2 riversedge Oct 2015 #9
And now, Biden's out. Clinton will be in MineralMan Oct 2015 #20
And pretty much evey place else! Walk away Oct 2015 #10
I'm waiting on what she does in West Virginia wolfie001 Oct 2015 #11
Context and factual inaccuracy. hay rick Oct 2015 #12
Democrats make up about 35% of Florida registrations. Fuddnik Oct 2015 #14
They are working on that (re-registration as Dems) in our area. hay rick Oct 2015 #18
Now that she's back on top in IA & NH (in some polls), the rest will just be gravy. Tarheel_Dem Oct 2015 #13
Get ready for trick or treat. Fuddnik Oct 2015 #15
I think we've already seen the "trick". Tarheel_Dem Oct 2015 #17
Greetings, Tar Heel Dem . . . Gamecock Lefty Oct 2015 #19

Freddie Stubbs

(29,853 posts)
4. President Obama won Florida both times
Wed Oct 21, 2015, 08:58 AM
Oct 2015

And Hillary did very well (49%, compared to Obama's 33%) in the 2008 primary.

FLPanhandle

(7,107 posts)
5. As a Florida Democrat, I agree
Wed Oct 21, 2015, 09:10 AM
Oct 2015

Hillary will do well in this state.

I like Bernie, but I expect Hillary to win.

DhhD

(4,695 posts)
6. How long will that lead remain when those focusing in Florida, begins to look at Social Security?
Wed Oct 21, 2015, 09:14 AM
Oct 2015

IMO the focus will move.

riversedge

(69,708 posts)
9. Oct 21 N. Florida Univ Poll: Clinton 54.6 Sanders 15.9 Biden 11.2
Wed Oct 21, 2015, 09:34 AM
Oct 2015

Oct 21 N. Florida Univ Poll: Clinton 54.6 Sanders 15.9 Biden 11.2 Likely Dem voters


Hillary Clinton dominates the Democratic field in Florida, where she receives more than half the likely primary vote and has more than triple the support of second-place challenger Bernie Sanders, according to a new poll.

The University of North Florida survey shows Vice President Joe Biden — who is flirting with a potential presidential bid — a distant third with just 11.2 percent of the likely Democratic vote. Clinton, the former secretary of state, gets 54.6 percent of the primary vote compared to 15.9 percent for Sanders, the Vermont senator.

“The Democratic primary in Florida is Clinton Country,” said Michael Binder, a UNF political science professor who oversaw the survey of 632 likely Democratic voters in Florida. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.87 percentage points.

“The first Democratic debate showed the race is Hillary Clinton and everyone else,” Binder said. “Sure, Bernie Sanders is nice and good for the very liberal wing of the party but in our poll, even among very liberal voters, she’s winning handily.”



http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/florida/2015/10/8580306/poll-shows-clinton-commanding-lead-among-florida-democrats



hay rick

(7,520 posts)
12. Context and factual inaccuracy.
Wed Oct 21, 2015, 10:56 AM
Oct 2015

The missing context: Clinton has gone from >+50% to <+30% in the last 3-4 months. Polls summary here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_democratic_presidential_primary-3556.html

The article describes the Florida presidential primary as winner-take-all, which would be great for Hillary if she could hold on to even a 1% lead. According to the Florida Democratic Party however (http://www.floridadems.org/2016-florida-delegate-selection-plan), the delegate selection plan is: "1. The results of Florida's March 15, 2016 presidential primary election will be used to apportion delegates to the national convention."

My personal experience is that Sanders activists are highly visible in my red part of Florida while Hillary has zero events and no local visibility outside of coverage in the national media.

Fuddnik

(8,846 posts)
14. Democrats make up about 35% of Florida registrations.
Wed Oct 21, 2015, 11:26 AM
Oct 2015

Republicans about 32% And No Party Affiliation at 30%.

Many of the NPA's are disaffected R's and D's, who got fed up with this whole corrupt system, and didn't want to associate with either side.

The job for the Sanders campaign is to get those NPA's re-registered as Dems, and get them out to vote in the Primary.

hay rick

(7,520 posts)
18. They are working on that (re-registration as Dems) in our area.
Wed Oct 21, 2015, 11:54 AM
Oct 2015

The deadline for eligibility is February 15 for the March 15 primary. My county is very red with a current registration ratio of about 2:1:1 (Republican, Democratic, and other). Registrations in the last year are 45.2% other, 35.9% Republican, and 18.9% Democrats. The R/D ratio is actually improving. The upsurge in NPA and "Independent" registrations bodes ill for voter turnout.

Gamecock Lefty

(698 posts)
19. Greetings, Tar Heel Dem . . .
Wed Oct 21, 2015, 01:09 PM
Oct 2015

And Hillary will be the treat for us!!!

Make America Even Greater - Elect Hillary!

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