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riversedge

(70,007 posts) Thu Oct 22, 2015, 08:19 AM Oct 2015

Iowa Poll: Clinton up by 7, but gap tightens

Source: The Des Moines Register

Jennifer Jacobs, jejacobs@dmreg.com

6:51 a.m. CDT October 22, 2015

The race is really on.

Both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders have grown in popularity in Iowa, and the gap between them has slimmed to 7 percentage points, 48 percent to 41 percent, without Joe Biden in the race, a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll shows.

Clinton, long the presumptive nominee, was 8 points ahead of Sanders in the Iowa Poll in late August. Her support among likely Democratic caucusgoers has climbed 5 points since then.

Upstart underdog Sanders gained vote share, too: He's up 6 points from where he was two months ago. But he has a newly revealed vulnerability: His votes for gun rights rattle Democratic voters here.

The new Iowa Poll was conducted before Biden's long-awaited announcement Wednesday that he isn't running for president a third time. To determine results without the vice president as an option, his first-choice support (he claimed just 12 percent) was reallocated based on second-choice responses.

With Biden no longer a potential entrant, two contenders are left center stage to battle one on one for the Democratic nomination.

Read more: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/10/22/iowa-poll-clinton-up-7-but-gap-tightens/74306980/

15 replies

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Iowa Poll: Clinton up by 7, but gap tightens (Original Post) riversedge Oct 2015 OP

Go get her Bernie! Helen Borg Oct 2015 #1

have to say the writer needs to take a math course or two dsc Oct 2015 #2

Glad you noticed that - I was about to point out that she was ahead by 8 in August... George II Oct 2015 #12

"margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points" thesquanderer Oct 2015 #3

Leading In 50 States! onehandle Oct 2015 #4

You always post that great pic. Thanks. Gives me a lift riversedge Oct 2015 #7

I generally do no not comment on riversedge Oct 2015 #8

Not NH Reter Oct 2015 #13

Yes NH, and the 'Not Hillary' Party posts such 'classy' stuff. onehandle Oct 2015 #15

One point gain means gap tightens?? DCBob Oct 2015 #5

I chuckled when I saw that. riversedge Oct 2015 #6

I think Hillary should feel very cool and confident going into the hearings today. DCBob Oct 2015 #10

Love your optimism. thank you. riversedge Oct 2015 #11

This is friggin awesome SmittynMo Oct 2015 #9

“Sanders has a big problem, and it’s guns, not socialism,” pollster J. Ann Selzer said. brooklynite Oct 2015 #14

Helen Borg

(3,963 posts)

1. Go get her Bernie!

Reply to riversedge (Original post)

Thu Oct 22, 2015, 08:35 AM

Oct 2015

dsc

(52,146 posts)

2. have to say the writer needs to take a math course or two

Reply to riversedge (Original post)

Thu Oct 22, 2015, 08:45 AM

Oct 2015

First, she is within the MOE and that should have been mentioned, second a difference of 1 point in the gap is trivial, the polls are basically the same in terms of margin.

George II

(67,782 posts)

12. Glad you noticed that - I was about to point out that she was ahead by 8 in August...

Reply to dsc (Reply #2)

Thu Oct 22, 2015, 11:22 AM

Oct 2015

..and now 7 in October, but those are "without Biden" - even though Biden WAS one of the options in the two polls.

In fact, WITH Biden (which is the way the poll was conducted) in August it was 37-30 and now in October 48-41.

The race isn't getting closer - its exactly the same as it was in August.

Now, it will be interesting to see what the tally will be in the next poll which will definitively NOT include Biden.

I suspect we'll see a flurry of new polls early next week as the various pollsters scramble to release polls without Biden.

thesquanderer

(11,967 posts)

3. "margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points"

Reply to riversedge (Original post)

Thu Oct 22, 2015, 08:54 AM

Oct 2015

so actually too close to call.

The poll does show that they have likely both improved since August, as the improvements are greater than the MOE. But as to which one is actually ahead at the moment, this poll doesn't really tell you that.

onehandle

(51,122 posts)

4. Leading In 50 States!

Reply to riversedge (Original post)

Thu Oct 22, 2015, 08:58 AM

Oct 2015

[font size="5"]#45[/font]

[img]

[/img]

riversedge

(70,007 posts)

7. You always post that great pic. Thanks. Gives me a lift

Reply to onehandle (Reply #4)

Thu Oct 22, 2015, 09:17 AM

Oct 2015

riversedge

(70,007 posts)

8. I generally do no not comment on

Reply to onehandle (Reply #4)

Thu Oct 22, 2015, 09:18 AM

Oct 2015

this--but Hillary has lost a few pounds and the shorter hair dooo does her good.

Reter

(2,188 posts)

13. Not NH

Reply to onehandle (Reply #4)

Thu Oct 22, 2015, 11:28 AM

Oct 2015

onehandle

(51,122 posts)

15. Yes NH, and the 'Not Hillary' Party posts such 'classy' stuff.

Reply to Reter (Reply #13)

Thu Oct 22, 2015, 12:38 PM

Oct 2015

Hillary Clinton Overtakes Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire, Poll Shows

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141239369

DCBob

(24,689 posts)

5. One point gain means gap tightens??

Reply to riversedge (Original post)

Thu Oct 22, 2015, 09:06 AM

Oct 2015

I think the Hillary camp is very very pleased with these numbers. Her numbers have been steadily increasing and she is nearing a majority which means Sanders has no chance. Once these stupid Benghazi interrogations are over I suspect her numbers will jump again.

Cheers!

riversedge

(70,007 posts)

6. I chuckled when I saw that.

Reply to DCBob (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 22, 2015, 09:16 AM

Oct 2015

I just hope Hillary got a good nights sleep.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)

10. I think Hillary should feel very cool and confident going into the hearings today.

Reply to riversedge (Reply #6)

Thu Oct 22, 2015, 09:29 AM

Oct 2015

I listen to RW loon radio during my commute and they are worried nothing significant is going to come from today's proceedings. They are not aware of any new bombshells and the controversy surrounding the committee's underlying political motives is gaining traction and has put Gowdy on the defensive. Furthermore Hillary is very very prepared and I suspect nothing will surprise her today. She is on a roll and she feels it. Today will just be one more hurdle she will easily jump and keep on running.

riversedge

(70,007 posts)

11. Love your optimism. thank you.

Reply to DCBob (Reply #10)

Thu Oct 22, 2015, 09:52 AM

Oct 2015

SmittynMo

(3,544 posts)

9. This is friggin awesome

Reply to riversedge (Original post)

Thu Oct 22, 2015, 09:23 AM

Oct 2015

Still a long time til march. BTW, Thanks Joe. We still love ya

brooklynite

(94,256 posts)

14. “Sanders has a big problem, and it’s guns, not socialism,” pollster J. Ann Selzer said.

Reply to riversedge (Original post)

Thu Oct 22, 2015, 11:36 AM

Oct 2015

From the article:

Sixty percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers say they feel less supportive of Sanders because he has voted against waiting periods and background checks for gun buyers, positions that were highlighted in the debate. Three-quarters of Clinton voters say his gun stances undermine their support for him, and 46 percent of his own voters agree they're troubling.

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