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Historic NY

(37,449 posts)
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 11:02 AM Oct 2015

Hillary has 41 point lead over Sanders Iowa

Source: Bloomberg

Hillary Clinton has support of 65% of likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers, while Bernie Sanders has 24% and Martin O’Malley has 5%, according to first Monmouth University poll since Clinton’s House Benghazi panel appearance and Vice President Joe Biden’s decision not to run.

Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/trackers/2015-10-27/clinton-has-41-point-lead-over-sanders-in-iowa-monmouth-poll

39 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Hillary has 41 point lead over Sanders Iowa (Original Post) Historic NY Oct 2015 OP
You need to remove the period at the end of your link. Skinner Oct 2015 #1
If it goes to 40% the headline will be Clinton Losing Support to Sanders thearchive Oct 2015 #2
chuckle. no double that would happen riversedge Oct 2015 #9
K & R Iliyah Oct 2015 #3
odd...both Huff Post and RCP had IA very tight before the hearings magical thyme Oct 2015 #4
Clinton’s lead over Sanders is strong among both male voters (55% to 33%) and female voters (73% to riversedge Oct 2015 #5
check this site.... riversedge Oct 2015 #7
Why would I look at RCP's NATIONAL polling for IOWA results. I think I'll look at the Monmouth metho magical thyme Oct 2015 #18
No need to be nasty. I was only trying to be helpful. As you riversedge Oct 2015 #19
sorry you think it nasty to point out that a national poll does not equal iowa magical thyme Oct 2015 #20
" I'd put you on ignore if I didn't feel "... Thor_MN Oct 2015 #39
Message auto-removed Name removed Oct 2015 #21
Repeat: I don't believe the hearings caused Bernie to lose 15 points. magical thyme Oct 2015 #22
Message auto-removed Name removed Oct 2015 #23
Message auto-removed Name removed Oct 2015 #29
Dr Ben Carson Geronimoe Oct 2015 #6
That's what happens when you and your supporters walk out on the voters. George II Oct 2015 #8
Ouch riversedge Oct 2015 #10
Walked out on $300,000 speech Geronimoe Oct 2015 #24
Iowa: Clinton 65%, Sanders 24%, O'Malley 5%.....'nough said. George II Oct 2015 #30
If Sanders has a good ground game... bluestateguy Oct 2015 #11
I'll bet he's leading in the online polls. George II Oct 2015 #14
The M$M debate boost and Biden declining to run.... blackspade Oct 2015 #12
Yes, people were a little unsure of how she would handle the hearing, now they're showing... George II Oct 2015 #13
I'm still not for her in the primary, but she crushed it at the hearings. blackspade Oct 2015 #37
Is there a name for a poll that is designed in such a way to give the desired result? corkhead Oct 2015 #15
Wow. That post was written by a rabid HRC supporter. stillwaiting Oct 2015 #16
Polls which do validate my opinions are flawed. LanternWaste Oct 2015 #27
K & R SunSeeker Oct 2015 #17
Huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge! DCBob Oct 2015 #25
I think this is the first poll taken mostly post-Benghazi. DCBob Oct 2015 #26
Wow. I never asked for or wanted a "coronation". Nye Bevan Oct 2015 #28
You can have your coronation Robbins Oct 2015 #31
Boo hoo... my candidate is losing. I'll stay home. Adrahil Oct 2015 #34
And if Bernie wins the primary I will be happy to vote for him on election day. Nye Bevan Oct 2015 #35
I'm almost certain she's ahead, but 41 pts? Let's see if other polling backs this up. Tarheel_Dem Oct 2015 #32
Okay... go Hillary and all.... Adrahil Oct 2015 #33
2nd poll out today (Loras College) gives Clinton +38... brooklynite Oct 2015 #36
I dunno... maybe that was a tipping point. I'd like to see some more data points. Adrahil Oct 2015 #38

thearchive

(14 posts)
2. If it goes to 40% the headline will be Clinton Losing Support to Sanders
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 11:11 AM
Oct 2015

Its a blowout right now, but the headline writers have a job to do.

 

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)
4. odd...both Huff Post and RCP had IA very tight before the hearings
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 11:21 AM
Oct 2015

that was with Biden not included. I don't see Monmouth U. polls included in either of their lists, although maybe I didn't look far enough back...

Hard to believe that Bernie lost 15 points to Hillary based on the hearings, though. Until I see evidence of otherwise (i.e. multiple different pollsters showing similar, dramatic change), I'm considering this an outlier.

riversedge

(70,186 posts)
5. Clinton’s lead over Sanders is strong among both male voters (55% to 33%) and female voters (73% to
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 11:31 AM
Oct 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/trackers/2015-10-27/clinton-has-41-point-lead-over-sanders-in-iowa-monmouth-poll

Clinton’s lead over Sanders is strong among both male voters (55% to 33%) and female voters (73% to 16%)
Clinton is second choice of 68% of Sanders supporters, while 19% say O’Malley would be their second choice
“We now have a two-person race, but one of those competitors has just pulled very far ahead,” says Patrick Murray, director of Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, N.J.
Clinton has 88% favorable rating and 8% unfavorable
Sanders has 77% favorable and 11% unfavorable, O’Malley has 50% favorable and 14% unfavorable
Oct. 22-25 phone survey of 400 Iowa voters likely to attend Democratic caucuses has MOE of +/- 4.9 ppts

riversedge

(70,186 posts)
7. check this site....
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 11:34 AM
Oct 2015



http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html


Polling Data
Poll Date Sample
Clinton

Sanders

Biden

Webb

O'Malley

Chafee
Spread
RCP Average 10/10 - 10/18 -- 48.2 25.4 17.0 1.0 0.6 0.0 Clinton +22.8
NBC/WSJ 10/15 - 10/18 400 RV 49 29 15 2 1 0 Clinton +20
ABC/Wash Post 10/15 - 10/18 444 RV 54 23 16 1 1 0 Clinton +31
Monmouth 10/15 - 10/18 340 RV 48 21 17 1 0 0 Clinton +27
CNN/ORC 10/14 - 10/17 291 RV 45 29 18 1 0 0 Clinton +16
FOX News 10/10 - 10/12 353 RV 45 25 19 0 1 0 Clinton +20
 

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)
18. Why would I look at RCP's NATIONAL polling for IOWA results. I think I'll look at the Monmouth metho
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 11:57 AM
Oct 2015

methodology instead.

Indeed, I'm finding some peculiar framing in their IOWA polling.

But nice try. I'd put you on ignore if I didn't feel the need to unskew your interpretations...

 

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)
20. sorry you think it nasty to point out that a national poll does not equal iowa
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 12:06 PM
Oct 2015

I forgot that Hillary supporters tend to be humor-challenged, although I honestly don't understand why given her lead and the leg up the Benghazi-nuts just gave her...

Response to magical thyme (Reply #4)

 

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)
22. Repeat: I don't believe the hearings caused Bernie to lose 15 points.
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 12:13 PM
Oct 2015

I do believe a flawed methodology gave poor results.

Response to magical thyme (Reply #22)

Response to Name removed (Reply #23)

George II

(67,782 posts)
8. That's what happens when you and your supporters walk out on the voters.
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 11:34 AM
Oct 2015

I believe this is the first comprehensive post-debate, post-hearing, post-JJ dinner poll to be released.

 

Geronimoe

(1,539 posts)
24. Walked out on $300,000 speech
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 12:40 PM
Oct 2015

At least that is what Goldman Sachs gives her to speak.

Back in the 2008 campaign both Bill and Hillary had stump speeches and the only people who showed up where locally elected politicians and policemen. Both whine on but never say anything of significance.

blackspade

(10,056 posts)
12. The M$M debate boost and Biden declining to run....
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 11:40 AM
Oct 2015

Definitely helped, but I think the GOP deserves the most praise for these numbers.
Their masterful Benghazi hearing was a political coup that just keeps on giving.

George II

(67,782 posts)
13. Yes, people were a little unsure of how she would handle the hearing, now they're showing...
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 11:47 AM
Oct 2015

....that they no longer are.

I think this is a portent of things to come in other states, and the trend nationally.

blackspade

(10,056 posts)
37. I'm still not for her in the primary, but she crushed it at the hearings.
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 01:59 PM
Oct 2015

Her performance earned her every point.

stillwaiting

(3,795 posts)
16. Wow. That post was written by a rabid HRC supporter.
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 11:52 AM
Oct 2015

He insults and condescends to Bernie supporters like few others can.

Of course, he is correct in this instance.

 

LanternWaste

(37,748 posts)
27. Polls which do validate my opinions are flawed.
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 12:48 PM
Oct 2015

Polls which do validate my opinions are flawed. Or mean nothing this late out. Or are skewed. Or have too small a sampling size. Only polls which do in fact, validate my opinions are valid. And righteous. And in accordance with the universe and all its beauty...

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
26. I think this is the first poll taken mostly post-Benghazi.
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 12:47 PM
Oct 2015

I was expecting a nice bump but this is huge.

Nye Bevan

(25,406 posts)
28. Wow. I never asked for or wanted a "coronation".
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 12:51 PM
Oct 2015

But it seems that we may well end up getting one anyway.

I have always thought and hoped that Hillary would win the nomination, but I'm not sure whether the primaries being too easy for her will be a good thing later on in the general.

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
34. Boo hoo... my candidate is losing. I'll stay home.
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 01:08 PM
Oct 2015

If you do that knowing what is at stake, you are a fool.

And NO, Hillary is not as bad as the GOP, and anyone who thinks she is being ridiculous.

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
33. Okay... go Hillary and all....
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 01:07 PM
Oct 2015

But that's most likely an outlier. That's WAY out of line with other recent polls. Unless the Benghazi circus really DI have a huge effect.

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
38. I dunno... maybe that was a tipping point. I'd like to see some more data points.
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 05:36 PM
Oct 2015

To be clear, I am a Hillary supporter, but these numbers are pretty shocking....

Just based on the Loras poll... maybe it's just that almost ALL of the Biden supporters now support Hillary?

Could be....

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