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big_dog

(4,144 posts)
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 10:00 PM Aug 2016

USC/Dornsife Daybreak Poll: 8/6/16 HRC 44.6 Trump 44.2 (7 day tracking avg post convention )

Source: University of Southern Caiifornia



The 2016 USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election Poll represents a pioneering approach to tracking changes in Americans' opinions throughout a campaign for the White House. Around 3000 respondents in our representative panel are asked questions on a regular basis on what they care about most in the election, and on their attitudes toward their preferred candidates. The "Daybreak poll" is updated just after midnight every day of the week.



Presidential Election Vote

This chart tracks our best estimate, over time, of how America plans to vote in November

The final blue and red figures on the right side of the chart represent our most recent estimates of Hillary Clinton's vote (blue squares) and Donald Trump's (red diamonds). These estimates represent weighted averages of all responses in the prior week. The gray band is a "95-percent confidence interval". Figures lying outside the gray band mean that we are at least 95% confident that the candidate with the highest percentage will win the popular vote.

Read more: http://cesrusc.org/election/

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USC/Dornsife Daybreak Poll: 8/6/16 HRC 44.6 Trump 44.2 (7 day tracking avg post convention ) (Original Post) big_dog Aug 2016 OP
That's good news Doctor Jack Aug 2016 #1
Thank you. Kingofalldems Aug 2016 #2
And the LA Times tracking poll is brand new and untested Doctor Jack Aug 2016 #3
Clinton Up 7.5% in 10 Days Stallion Aug 2016 #4
This is an online poll that repeatedly interviews from the same panel. It's just a toy. n/t pnwmom Aug 2016 #5
OP sorely lacking as evidenced by the responses debunking this 'poll'. Kingofalldems Aug 2016 #6
in your opinion big_dog Aug 2016 #7
Kingofalldems's opinion is well thought of here and context would have been helpful. hrmjustin Aug 2016 #8
because you are in their clique big_dog Aug 2016 #21
And what clique is that? hrmjustin Aug 2016 #23
What clique? Kingofalldems Aug 2016 #24
I just signed up, so the admonition about civility is fresh in my mind Vaughn Tom Aug 2016 #10
Opinions & facts are always open to dispute. You can diss opinions while respecting the person. Bernardo de La Paz Aug 2016 #14
Welcome to DU, Vaughn Tom! calimary Aug 2016 #17
Welcome to du! If you think a comment.... reACTIONary Aug 2016 #18
It's the Dornsife online panel "poll" that isn't worth much. n/t pnwmom Aug 2016 #12
Did you catch this poll ol' buddy? Kingofalldems Aug 2016 #16
I hear Trump is up by 50 points edhopper Aug 2016 #9
hes heavily favored in his own house.. MFM008 Aug 2016 #13
If you read the "poll methodology," you'll see this is not a serious poll PSPS Aug 2016 #11
Somethang about this poll ,,, Cryptoad Aug 2016 #15
Hello big dog ! The Donald here ! Wash. state Desk Jet Aug 2016 #19
In the news ! Wash. state Desk Jet Aug 2016 #20
Winning Bigly, cause I'm the best, no one can beat me, I'M a winner. sarcasmo Aug 2016 #22

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)
1. That's good news
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 10:07 PM
Aug 2016

The LA times tracking poll always shows Trump ahead. When all of the polls last week showed Clinton up around 10 points, the LA times had Trump up by 4.

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)
3. And the LA Times tracking poll is brand new and untested
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 10:16 PM
Aug 2016

Its not something with an established track record. Its an online poll that has literally been around for a few weeks and it always shows a fairly large lead for Trump. And it tends to jump around in a manner that isn't consistent with other polls. When other polls showing Clinton jumping to a massive lead, this one shows Trump pulling even further ahead. It seems to move around at random and show results that are completely random. I don't think their methodology is well refined and most of the major tracking sites don't even bother with this one.

The LA Times is certainly well known and they have well established live interview polls but this tracking poll is not the same thing.

 

Vaughn Tom

(14 posts)
10. I just signed up, so the admonition about civility is fresh in my mind
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 11:39 PM
Aug 2016

You do not seem to be displaying it. sir.

Bernardo de La Paz

(48,966 posts)
14. Opinions & facts are always open to dispute. You can diss opinions while respecting the person.
Sun Aug 7, 2016, 10:56 AM
Aug 2016

Welcome to DU (your 6th post).

The opinion is not the person.

People have many opinions and they vary over time. So discussing and rejecting one opinion a person may hold is not rejecting all their opinions and not rejecting the person.

calimary

(81,130 posts)
17. Welcome to DU, Vaughn Tom!
Sun Aug 7, 2016, 01:04 PM
Aug 2016

Glad you're here. We do get contentious with each other at times. Don't know what to say about it. It's often harmonious here, and you can learn and gain a lot, objectively. But there've been other times when it's grown so nasty that some of us were actually driven into exile.

reACTIONary

(5,768 posts)
18. Welcome to du! If you think a comment....
Sun Aug 7, 2016, 04:02 PM
Aug 2016

.... is uncivil or disrespectful, just alert on it and let the jury decide.

PSPS

(13,580 posts)
11. If you read the "poll methodology," you'll see this is not a serious poll
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 11:59 PM
Aug 2016
The Daybreak Poll is based on an internet probability panel survey. Daybreak Poll members are participants in the ongoing UAS internet probability panel of about 5,000 U.S. residents who were randomly selected from among all households in the United States. Members of recruited households that did not have internet access were provided with tablets and internet service. The UAS panel is still growing. We project it will reach about 6000 members in the coming months.

More than 3200 UAS panel members so far (July 2016) have agreed to participate in answering questions about the election, and we expect that number will increase over time. Each day, 1/7th of those who have agreed to participate (more than 400 per day) are invited to answer three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that... (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) if you were to vote, you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else (percentages add to 100) and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win (percentages add to 100). The order of the candidates in the questions is randomized so that about half of the respondents see Clinton as the first choice and half of the respondents see Trump as the first choice.

Wash. state Desk Jet

(3,426 posts)
19. Hello big dog ! The Donald here !
Sun Aug 7, 2016, 04:02 PM
Aug 2016


You know my fans just love me in L.A. ! And those studios just love all my loyal fans ! To tell you the truth! ,I don't bother to read much in the lying deceitful N.Y. Times-, because it as an entity is totally dishonest.So for the time being I am a great fan of the L.A. Times. They just love me ! And the really great thing about all that is it doesn't cost me anything ! Well, I've got a show to put on and it's all about the Donald's new message . I call it the come back conundrum, something of a kiddie riddle !

Great suspense ! You know watching all the television stuff keeping up with whats going on ,as you know I get all my information as seen on tv ! I just shut it all off . Been watching films of myself on the campaign trail ,the one I can't get enough of is me at the Iowa state fair ! I mean who will have imagined it all came down to me ! And out of all that I see a great marketing idea, a collection of favorite home movies staring Donald Trump the business man and the candidate.

This could be really really big, I may have to abandon my campaign to launch this project !Maybe I'll dump Pence and replace him with somebody I can totally control. Can you imagine a presidential portrait of who ever it is I get in there next to a portrait of The Donald's Shadow ! I mean Dick Cheney would become a nobody fast forgotten ! I mean nobody would dare try to compare Dick Cheney to The Donald's shadow ! And my lawyers need not worry because my shadow cannot carry a brief case or a gun !





















Wash. state Desk Jet

(3,426 posts)
20. In the news !
Sun Aug 7, 2016, 06:02 PM
Aug 2016

Staten Island Trump supporter’s giant sign honoring the GOP candidate goes up in flames

http://nypost.com/2016/08/07/mans-trump-sign-goes-up-in-flames/

Donald Trump supporter’s giant sign supporting the GOP candidate went up in flames on Staten Island early Sunday in what its owner believes is an arson attack.

But the FDNY is calling the blaze a “routine rubbish fire.! ____________________
Sam Pirozzolo said a neighbor woke him up around 1 a.m. alerting him that his 12-foot-tall “T” made of insulation foam and painted like an American flag was burning in his front yard on Manor Rd. near Sturges St. in Castleton Corners.

“I came downstairs and I saw a huge flame,” a shocked Pirozzolo, 52, told the Daily News
http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/s-trump-supporter-ode-candidate-flames-article-1.2741922

http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_fs/1.2741919.1470601143!/img/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/article_1200/fire8n-3-web.jpg













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