Reuters: Trump and Clinton Are Tied
Source: Reuters
If the 2016 presidential election were held today, would you vote for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?
1,397 RESPONDENTS
Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 39.7%
Donald Trump (Republican) 39.1%
Other 8.8%
Refused 7.5%
Would not vote 4.9%
Read more: http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/type/smallest/dates/20160710-20160830/collapsed/true/spotlight/1
Tonight as Cable News gives Trump 24/7 coverage breaking only to discuss Hillary's e-mails, Reuters latest poll show that the race is tied.
vadermike
(1,415 posts)Clinton campaign get into high gear now Get surrogates out there ! Where's president O? Where's the Calvary ? Wtf is going on ? Omg we are at red alert now may got have mercy on our souls ugh
TomCADem
(17,378 posts)Hillary has the advantage in commercials so to level the playing field, the media has been running Trump rallies non-stop. Check out your cable news, it is all Trump, all the time.
SCliberal91294
(170 posts)Is good press. They are in damage control from racist remarks as well.
Akicita
(1,196 posts)she has given in the past two weeks was all about Trump. She needs to get out there and campaign before he catches up. She is ceding the stage to Rump.
mahatmakanejeeves
(56,897 posts)Go to Jerusalem and make a left.
SCliberal91294
(170 posts)The link shows hillary up 5. Keep focus on the rcp average.
Bernardo de La Paz
(48,789 posts)Kilgore
(1,733 posts)Look at the 7 day trend,
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
Never turn your back on this guy.
Beartracks
(12,761 posts)Beartracks
(12,761 posts)That's close enough to make the voting machine hacks go unquestioned as being "within the margin of error."
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vadermike
(1,415 posts)To be a 50 50 race till Election Day We are now officially in la la land
riversedge
(69,727 posts)high pt per the graph). that seems unbelievable. yipes.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)molova
(543 posts)Assumest highest turnout of white males ever.
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/770739786722250756
applegrove
(118,022 posts)youth/Hispanic turnout.
SCliberal91294
(170 posts)It's incredibly low. Youth is at 13%
LuckyLib
(6,814 posts)The list is endless.
truthisfreedom
(23,113 posts)OB44
(27 posts)This election is going to drive me crazy. Time to engulf myself in football season. This is making me depressed and I can't do anything about it. I'll vote when the time comes, that pretty much all I can do.
Bernardo de La Paz
(48,789 posts)Nate Cohn of the New York Times criticizes Reuters poll based on the fact that it "has highest white male turnout in decades, lowest hispanic/youth turnout in decades".
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/770739786722250756
Tempest
(14,591 posts)It assumes white vote will break records and they will come out for Drumpf.
That's just not going to happen.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/24/donald-trumps-white-voter-problem-explained-in-9-charts/
Adenoid_Hynkel
(14,093 posts)and giving him free airtime for his Nuremberg rallies.
This was inevitable.
Cracklin Charlie
(12,904 posts)You tune out...they lose dough.
They gotta keep you tuning in, cause they gotta pay all those pundits.
It's not all bad though, because maybe people will actually go out and vote to make sure Assface (he's less popular than bedbugs) doesn't become President.
world wide wally
(21,719 posts)Even people I once liked seem to be going over to the dark side
like Chris Hayes. Asshole Kornacki is little more than a Trump groupie. Andrea Mitchell
. bought and paid for. Lewnandowski is still on Trump's payroll
. and it goes on and on.
Make sure you make them own this when it is over!
LenaBaby61
(6,965 posts)Look at polls this early (I usually wait until mid-to late September and post the first debate) especially BIASED polls which "predict" that there will be 2% MORE points of whites voting and that there will be 2% LESS minority vote than there was in 2012. Then, there are these polls which are on line polls which I really don't like--I have to be honest--that when I saw that SurveyMonkey poll with a large lead for Hillary recently I thought to myself, another on line paid for poll which is not all together that accurate I've read. THEN, you have an Ipsos poll which used 114 people as I recall to conduct a poll and finally you had this Emerson poll which had so many flaws in it it's not funny. Okay, those weird methodology polls get thrown in with the more accurate and in depth polling and it's EASY to see how Hillary can be down from an estimated +13 to a +4 point lead a few days later AFTER those less reliable polls are added in. I was honestly shocked to see that Quinnipiac had Hillary up by +10 over tRump because we know they lean right and they over sample white voters and under sample minority voters. In other words, I'm not near the panic stage yet
I'm still a believer in Nate, but lean a tiny bit more towards Sam Wang over @ Princeton Election Consortium and his Electoral College Models, and that's without any debates or any Town Halls of anykind, but that will be changing next week when tRump and Hillary get together separately for 1 hour on September 7th with Veterans in North Carolina to discuss amongst other things Veterans health issues.
PearliePoo2
(7,768 posts)Yeah, September 7th will be "must watch" TV!
And the first debate has my stomach already churning in anticipation!
PSPS
(13,516 posts)SmittynMo
(3,544 posts)We certainly wouldn't be in this predicament if ........ (Go ahead - fill in the blank)
Funtatlaguy
(10,856 posts)Trumps acolytes will SCREAM these numbers to whoever will listen.
Media members who crave a close race will do the same.
Excuse me now while I go stick my head in the oven.
get the red out
(13,459 posts)If I recall, they were good for McCain.
Lunabell
(5,920 posts)Or is he staying out?
MisterFred
(525 posts)I expect responding honestly will get my post deleted, but it seems to me he'd just be an unhappy reminder of how much better a candidate we'd have against Trump, how much better the polls would look right now.
Could just make former Sanders supporters depressed they're hoping for very-much-second-best.
cynzke
(1,254 posts)The MISSING vote.....4.9% HELPS elect a winner AND loser. There is NO SUCH THING as not voting. IT has a consequence. It REGISTERS an affect.
SansACause
(520 posts)I know white guys who probably never voted who are drooling to get to the polls and elect Trump. Likewise, without Obama on the ballot, you might expect the turnout for black voters to be lower than it was in 2008 and 2012.
Trump has maxed out at 40%. Those are diehard Republicans who are going to vote R no matter who the candidate is. Likewise, the diehard Democrats are around 40% of the voting populace. It's the 7.5% who refused to answer the pollster who are going to swing the election, and in most other polls those voters went to Clinton.
National polls are meaningless anyway. State polling is the only thing that really matters.
Eagle_Eye
(1,439 posts)The media is slanting information to give the apperance the race is close. After Labor Day our campagin will crank up as voter make up their minds. By October it will not even be close enough to lie about. The media will not be able to hide a ten-plus point difference in the polls.
0rganism
(23,856 posts)the way i see it, these campaigns run in 3 phases similar to a chess game: an opening (convention up to Labor Day), a middle (Labor Day to early October), and a bitter end (October through election day).
the opening phase is when the candidate inherits a partisan advantage. the convention bounces reflect party unification and how the public at large views the party as well as the candidate. HRC had a significant and long-lasting bump from the Democratic convention, which tRump is only now recovering from. so we enter the midgame with HRC holding a strong position, while DJT scrambles off to Mexico to look presidential to chumps, i guess.
pretty soon we'll hit some shared forums and the first debate and the middle will be well underway.
thing is, candidates and campaigns have limited endurance, ad saturation has a limited duration, and so on. run strong then let the opponent try to catch up, then run ahead again, let the opponent scramble to get within shouting distance, then surge again at the end and win. don't want to blow all the cookies at once building up an "insurmountable" lead, make it look like a race. it's not just politics, it's showmanship, professionalism.
don't get freaked out when the polls show a tightening. some of it's turnout-model weighting (Nate Silver says the turnout for this result posits a record high white vote rate), some of it's pacing, and there are some polls that are just outliers -- it happens. HRC is a pro, she knows how to win elections. this still looks really solid.
Akicita
(1,196 posts)0rganism
(23,856 posts)timing is important, gotta let the Democrats sweat a little bit, stimulates the volunteerism. no panic, she's got this.
Rex
(65,616 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)saykay
(8 posts)538 now has HRC with a 75.4% chance at the election down from 89% about 10 days ago. What in hell has caused this dramatic fall? I knew that the race would tighten as the cycle wore on, but I never thought that this type of drop could happen. WTF??