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TomCADem

(17,378 posts)
Wed Aug 31, 2016, 12:07 AM Aug 2016

Reuters: Trump and Clinton Are Tied

Source: Reuters

If the 2016 presidential election were held today, would you vote for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?

1,397 RESPONDENTS
Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 39.7%
Donald Trump (Republican) 39.1%
Other 8.8%
Refused 7.5%
Would not vote 4.9%


Read more: http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/type/smallest/dates/20160710-20160830/collapsed/true/spotlight/1



Tonight as Cable News gives Trump 24/7 coverage breaking only to discuss Hillary's e-mails, Reuters latest poll show that the race is tied.
41 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Reuters: Trump and Clinton Are Tied (Original Post) TomCADem Aug 2016 OP
Holy crap vadermike Aug 2016 #1
It Is A Media Black Out. Leveling The Playing Field For Trump TomCADem Aug 2016 #4
Not all press SCliberal91294 Aug 2016 #13
Why isn't Hillary holding rallies then. They would be covered too. The only speech I know about that Akicita Aug 2016 #36
"Where's the Calvary ?" mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2016 #41
It's a tracking poll SCliberal91294 Aug 2016 #2
It's a poll. Don't "focus" on polls other than the Nov. 8 poll (and not the exit poll either). . nt Bernardo de La Paz Aug 2016 #6
Never ever underestimate Trump, you do do at your own peril. Kilgore Aug 2016 #17
Or the power of stupid people in large numbers. n/t Beartracks Aug 2016 #40
What an incredible coincidence. Beartracks Aug 2016 #3
I expect this vadermike Aug 2016 #5
According to the graph, Hill has lost 12 pts in 9 days (since aug 22, which was her riversedge Aug 2016 #7
Nate Cohn says white vote over and minorities are under in this poll Dawson Leery Aug 2016 #8
New York Times expert criticizes Reuters poll today molova Aug 2016 #9
Flawed poll. Assumes highest white male turnout in decades, lowest applegrove Aug 2016 #10
Not only is it low.. SCliberal91294 Aug 2016 #11
I think it's total BS -- whose interests are served by putting out such crap? LuckyLib Aug 2016 #12
All we really need to do is vote. truthisfreedom Aug 2016 #14
Exactly. I'm done. Brooklyn is asleep at the wheel. OB44 Aug 2016 #18
Reuters poll basic turnout assumptions fatally flawed Bernardo de La Paz Aug 2016 #15
It's a flawed poll Tempest Aug 2016 #16
Media wants horserace - has been beating up on Hillary, while touting "new" Trump Adenoid_Hynkel Aug 2016 #19
At this point, it's all about the ratings. Cracklin Charlie Aug 2016 #20
I see every cable news network pushing Trump for the past week or so. Almost like he owns them. world wide wally Aug 2016 #21
Personally, I don't ..... LenaBaby61 Aug 2016 #22
Good post! PearliePoo2 Aug 2016 #24
Fake poll with unrealistic methodology. In other words, mere click bait provided for Reuters subs. PSPS Aug 2016 #23
Everyone is calling "Bullshit"? SmittynMo Aug 2016 #25
No matter how flawed this poll may be Funtatlaguy Aug 2016 #26
Is tied the best Reuters can do? get the red out Aug 2016 #27
When is Bernie going to join her on the campaign trail? Lunabell Aug 2016 #28
Does she even want him on the trail? MisterFred Aug 2016 #32
THE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE OF THIS POLL IS BOTTOM CATEGORY. cynzke Aug 2016 #29
I don't think their model is that unrealistic. SansACause Aug 2016 #30
Labor Day is when people start to pay attention Eagle_Eye Aug 2016 #31
three phases - HRC already won the opener 0rganism Aug 2016 #33
I would much prefer building an insurmountable lead and then keep her foot on the gas and bury him. Akicita Aug 2016 #37
which would lead to voter apathy, then underperformance in the election and down-ticket races 0rganism Aug 2016 #38
What did the other 34% have to say? Rex Aug 2016 #34
Oh dear! NurseJackie Aug 2016 #35
Et Tu, Nate (538)?? saykay Aug 2016 #39

vadermike

(1,415 posts)
1. Holy crap
Wed Aug 31, 2016, 12:11 AM
Aug 2016

Clinton campaign get into high gear now Get surrogates out there ! Where's president O? Where's the Calvary ? Wtf is going on ? Omg we are at red alert now may got have mercy on our souls ugh

TomCADem

(17,378 posts)
4. It Is A Media Black Out. Leveling The Playing Field For Trump
Wed Aug 31, 2016, 12:13 AM
Aug 2016

Hillary has the advantage in commercials so to level the playing field, the media has been running Trump rallies non-stop. Check out your cable news, it is all Trump, all the time.

Akicita

(1,196 posts)
36. Why isn't Hillary holding rallies then. They would be covered too. The only speech I know about that
Wed Aug 31, 2016, 01:34 PM
Aug 2016

she has given in the past two weeks was all about Trump. She needs to get out there and campaign before he catches up. She is ceding the stage to Rump.

Beartracks

(12,761 posts)
3. What an incredible coincidence.
Wed Aug 31, 2016, 12:13 AM
Aug 2016

That's close enough to make the voting machine hacks go unquestioned as being "within the margin of error."

==================

riversedge

(69,727 posts)
7. According to the graph, Hill has lost 12 pts in 9 days (since aug 22, which was her
Wed Aug 31, 2016, 12:16 AM
Aug 2016

high pt per the graph). that seems unbelievable. yipes.

 

OB44

(27 posts)
18. Exactly. I'm done. Brooklyn is asleep at the wheel.
Wed Aug 31, 2016, 12:41 AM
Aug 2016

This election is going to drive me crazy. Time to engulf myself in football season. This is making me depressed and I can't do anything about it. I'll vote when the time comes, that pretty much all I can do.

Bernardo de La Paz

(48,789 posts)
15. Reuters poll basic turnout assumptions fatally flawed
Wed Aug 31, 2016, 12:30 AM
Aug 2016
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512390803

Nate Cohn of the New York Times criticizes Reuters poll based on the fact that it "has highest white male turnout in decades, lowest hispanic/youth turnout in decades".

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/770739786722250756
 

Adenoid_Hynkel

(14,093 posts)
19. Media wants horserace - has been beating up on Hillary, while touting "new" Trump
Wed Aug 31, 2016, 12:45 AM
Aug 2016

and giving him free airtime for his Nuremberg rallies.

This was inevitable.

Cracklin Charlie

(12,904 posts)
20. At this point, it's all about the ratings.
Wed Aug 31, 2016, 12:53 AM
Aug 2016

You tune out...they lose dough.

They gotta keep you tuning in, cause they gotta pay all those pundits.

It's not all bad though, because maybe people will actually go out and vote to make sure Assface (he's less popular than bedbugs) doesn't become President.

world wide wally

(21,719 posts)
21. I see every cable news network pushing Trump for the past week or so. Almost like he owns them.
Wed Aug 31, 2016, 01:17 AM
Aug 2016

Even people I once liked seem to be going over to the dark side… like Chris Hayes. Asshole Kornacki is little more than a Trump groupie. Andrea Mitchell…. bought and paid for. Lewnandowski is still on Trump's payroll……. and it goes on and on.

Make sure you make them own this when it is over!

LenaBaby61

(6,965 posts)
22. Personally, I don't .....
Wed Aug 31, 2016, 01:23 AM
Aug 2016

Look at polls this early (I usually wait until mid-to late September and post the first debate) especially BIASED polls which "predict" that there will be 2% MORE points of whites voting and that there will be 2% LESS minority vote than there was in 2012. Then, there are these polls which are on line polls which I really don't like--I have to be honest--that when I saw that SurveyMonkey poll with a large lead for Hillary recently I thought to myself, another on line paid for poll which is not all together that accurate I've read. THEN, you have an Ipsos poll which used 114 people as I recall to conduct a poll and finally you had this Emerson poll which had so many flaws in it it's not funny. Okay, those weird methodology polls get thrown in with the more accurate and in depth polling and it's EASY to see how Hillary can be down from an estimated +13 to a +4 point lead a few days later AFTER those less reliable polls are added in. I was honestly shocked to see that Quinnipiac had Hillary up by +10 over tRump because we know they lean right and they over sample white voters and under sample minority voters. In other words, I'm not near the panic stage yet

I'm still a believer in Nate, but lean a tiny bit more towards Sam Wang over @ Princeton Election Consortium and his Electoral College Models, and that's without any debates or any Town Halls of anykind, but that will be changing next week when tRump and Hillary get together separately for 1 hour on September 7th with Veterans in North Carolina to discuss amongst other things Veterans health issues.

PearliePoo2

(7,768 posts)
24. Good post!
Wed Aug 31, 2016, 02:32 AM
Aug 2016

Yeah, September 7th will be "must watch" TV!
And the first debate has my stomach already churning in anticipation!

PSPS

(13,516 posts)
23. Fake poll with unrealistic methodology. In other words, mere click bait provided for Reuters subs.
Wed Aug 31, 2016, 01:24 AM
Aug 2016

SmittynMo

(3,544 posts)
25. Everyone is calling "Bullshit"?
Wed Aug 31, 2016, 04:57 AM
Aug 2016

We certainly wouldn't be in this predicament if ........ (Go ahead - fill in the blank)

Funtatlaguy

(10,856 posts)
26. No matter how flawed this poll may be
Wed Aug 31, 2016, 05:23 AM
Aug 2016

Trumps acolytes will SCREAM these numbers to whoever will listen.
Media members who crave a close race will do the same.
Excuse me now while I go stick my head in the oven.

MisterFred

(525 posts)
32. Does she even want him on the trail?
Wed Aug 31, 2016, 11:16 AM
Aug 2016

I expect responding honestly will get my post deleted, but it seems to me he'd just be an unhappy reminder of how much better a candidate we'd have against Trump, how much better the polls would look right now.

Could just make former Sanders supporters depressed they're hoping for very-much-second-best.

cynzke

(1,254 posts)
29. THE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE OF THIS POLL IS BOTTOM CATEGORY.
Wed Aug 31, 2016, 07:33 AM
Aug 2016

The MISSING vote.....4.9% HELPS elect a winner AND loser. There is NO SUCH THING as not voting. IT has a consequence. It REGISTERS an affect.

SansACause

(520 posts)
30. I don't think their model is that unrealistic.
Wed Aug 31, 2016, 08:21 AM
Aug 2016

I know white guys who probably never voted who are drooling to get to the polls and elect Trump. Likewise, without Obama on the ballot, you might expect the turnout for black voters to be lower than it was in 2008 and 2012.

Trump has maxed out at 40%. Those are diehard Republicans who are going to vote R no matter who the candidate is. Likewise, the diehard Democrats are around 40% of the voting populace. It's the 7.5% who refused to answer the pollster who are going to swing the election, and in most other polls those voters went to Clinton.

National polls are meaningless anyway. State polling is the only thing that really matters.

Eagle_Eye

(1,439 posts)
31. Labor Day is when people start to pay attention
Wed Aug 31, 2016, 09:47 AM
Aug 2016

The media is slanting information to give the apperance the race is close. After Labor Day our campagin will crank up as voter make up their minds. By October it will not even be close enough to lie about. The media will not be able to hide a ten-plus point difference in the polls.

0rganism

(23,856 posts)
33. three phases - HRC already won the opener
Wed Aug 31, 2016, 12:47 PM
Aug 2016

the way i see it, these campaigns run in 3 phases similar to a chess game: an opening (convention up to Labor Day), a middle (Labor Day to early October), and a bitter end (October through election day).

the opening phase is when the candidate inherits a partisan advantage. the convention bounces reflect party unification and how the public at large views the party as well as the candidate. HRC had a significant and long-lasting bump from the Democratic convention, which tRump is only now recovering from. so we enter the midgame with HRC holding a strong position, while DJT scrambles off to Mexico to look presidential to chumps, i guess.

pretty soon we'll hit some shared forums and the first debate and the middle will be well underway.

thing is, candidates and campaigns have limited endurance, ad saturation has a limited duration, and so on. run strong then let the opponent try to catch up, then run ahead again, let the opponent scramble to get within shouting distance, then surge again at the end and win. don't want to blow all the cookies at once building up an "insurmountable" lead, make it look like a race. it's not just politics, it's showmanship, professionalism.

don't get freaked out when the polls show a tightening. some of it's turnout-model weighting (Nate Silver says the turnout for this result posits a record high white vote rate), some of it's pacing, and there are some polls that are just outliers -- it happens. HRC is a pro, she knows how to win elections. this still looks really solid.

Akicita

(1,196 posts)
37. I would much prefer building an insurmountable lead and then keep her foot on the gas and bury him.
Wed Aug 31, 2016, 02:13 PM
Aug 2016

0rganism

(23,856 posts)
38. which would lead to voter apathy, then underperformance in the election and down-ticket races
Wed Aug 31, 2016, 02:22 PM
Aug 2016

timing is important, gotta let the Democrats sweat a little bit, stimulates the volunteerism. no panic, she's got this.

saykay

(8 posts)
39. Et Tu, Nate (538)??
Wed Aug 31, 2016, 02:47 PM
Aug 2016

538 now has HRC with a 75.4% chance at the election down from 89% about 10 days ago. What in hell has caused this dramatic fall? I knew that the race would tighten as the cycle wore on, but I never thought that this type of drop could happen. WTF??

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