Obama takes slim post-convention lead over Romney: Reuters/Ipsos poll
Source: CNBC
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama regained some footing and overtook his Republican rival Mitt Romney in a new Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Friday, a day after the end of the Democratic convention.
In what appears to be a convention-induced bounce, Obama jumped ahead in the latest daily tracking poll with 46 percent of 1,434 likely voters saying they would vote for him if the November 6 elections were held today, topping Romney's 44 percent.
The rolling four-day online poll was conducted through early Friday. The Democratic convention in Charlotte, North Carolina, where Obama accepted his party's nomination for a second term, wrapped up late on Thursday night with the president's nationally televised speech.
"The numbers only moved a little bit but they moved in the direction that suggests that we may be seeing the first inkling of a post-convention bump," Ipsos pollster Julia Clark said.
-snip-
Read more: http://www.cnbc.com/id/48946039
Romney was ahead 45-44 in yesterday's poll, and 46-44 on Wednesday.
Politicalboi
(15,189 posts)When Obama has to bus children in to his rallies I will believe the polls. Magoo did the same thing. Abusing children to show a bigger crowd. Pathetic.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)can have props - WTF
This poll is bullshit. At first, Mittens was up approx. 4-5 points and now O is up 2? Plus Mittens doesn't think our soliders are important, asswipe.
I can't wait for Ras. . . not.
Bucky
(53,998 posts)Buckle in, kids. It's gonna get ugly.
kelly1mm
(4,732 posts)regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)...even if you haven't seen them. The O +7 was short-lived, and the results gave pretty much had one candidate or the other up by a point or two since then.
kelly1mm
(4,732 posts)August poll was the last they had up.
Chemisse
(30,809 posts)Something is bogus, either the old lead, or the sudden dead heat.
We_Must_Organize
(48 posts)Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com, who is the best in the business at predicting election outcomes, has documented this several times.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/
regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)Ipsos is a completely different polling outfit. I notice they run a four-day, overnight tracker. That means 50% of their current sample came from before Clinton's speech. We won't know the full extent of any convention bounce in their poll until all of their data is post-DNC...which will be the results released this coming Tuesday afternoon.
Dannyteague
(51 posts)In most of the south and in the plains states which make it close in the popular vote. Obama is in good shape with the EV.
heaven05
(18,124 posts)progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)Do you have a link to credible polls for that? Thanks.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)n/t.
heaven05
(18,124 posts)only thing I can figure with these voodoo polls is they don't want mitt-twit too embarrassed. This dips... cannot have this type of popularity. I just can't believe americans are that STUPID!!!!
longship
(40,416 posts)In other words a fourth of the data is before the convention began. A fourth was taken before the second day. A fourth was taken before the third day. A fourth was taken after.
Indeed, if this is showing a bump, 3/4 of the data was taken before the end of the convention.
The telling data will be Monday at the earliest.
joc46224
(62 posts)I was curious as to how McCain was doing around this time in 2008. Gallup had him ahead by 5 points (48-43) and we know how that turned out! I'm a bit frustrated (and concerned) about how this race can be as close as it is. In my opinion Romney is one of the worst candidates to come along in a very long time so how can it be this close?? See how McCain was actually ahead in September of 2008 makes me feel a bit better. (Yes, I guess you could say the same for Obama being ahead--that he could also go the way of McCain--but I feel that the debates are only going to help Obama).
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110110/gallup-daily-mccains-bounce-gives-him-5point-lead.aspx
SkyDaddy7
(6,045 posts)McCain saying the economy was fine & probably the most points lost came from his VP Pick The one & only Sarah Palin's news interviews!!! LOL!
And Obama won the debates which did not allow McCain to ever recover.
Romney's chances are win the debates (Which I do not see happening) & hope like hell the BILLION DOLLAR BLITZ all the wealthy Super PACs supporting him can scare enough folks away from Obama!
VPStoltz
(1,295 posts)the Prez has been LEADING the entire time - in ALL the swing states.
These polls are scientific - none of them really are - and don't reflect overall trends just snippets.
daleo
(21,317 posts)There is far too much response bias these days for polls to be considered scientific. That requires a random sample, which is no longer a reasonable expectation for telephone polls and never was a reasonable expectation for on-line polls or surveys.
Plus, most pollsters are biased towards their paymasters anyway.
justice1
(795 posts)The poll was blatantly biased in favor of Mitt Romney.