Russia has no obligations to Kiev anymore.

Perhaps Ukraine should acknowledge Crimea's annexation by Russia then work out a deal to "sell" Russia such Crimean infrastructure as Ukraine built with government funds.

Either way "austerity" (no money from the West, no gas from the East) is on the way for Ukrainians.

And the Koch brothers and their ilk will sell billions in over-priced natural gas to Eastern Europe, while the American taxpayer foots the bill for Ukraine's share of those imports.

What a great diplomatic victory for the American people! Way to go team!

(sarcasm intended, of course)

Without plenty of tasty cookies for the rioters?

Shipping natural gas requires massive pumping and compressor stations and specialized tanker ships, which are few and far between.

While there is a push on to get support to build more such ports and ships, right now at best we could send them a few tanker ships, a drop in the bucket for European gas needs.

And the American taxpayer will subsidize start-up costs for the fat-cat energy tycoons who do the shipping. Just wait and see.

Like Poland, Ukrainians were secondary citizens when it came to their relationship with Russian, just as they are being treated now. This just affirms the Russians could care less about the people of Ukraine, and only care about how they can benefit from Ukraine financially.

Do you really expect Russia to just let an antagonistic, confrontational neighboring government like Ukraine's get more valuable resources and continue to stiff the Russian people completely for the agreed payment? You think they should do this because that would show they "care about" the people of Ukraine?

The current government of Ukraine is killing its own people by the hundreds every day. Tell me, just how would giving that government more free natural gas help the long-suffering Ukrainian people?

There were thugs stopping the elections in Eastern Ukraine, and pretty obvious Russia was involved (ex.they have tanks now). I assume when the "people of Russia" cross the border with weapons and take over parts of Ukraine this is for the "people of Ukraine". Something tells me the people that appreciate that sort of help are a very small minority. And if Russia would take a firmer hold on the border and stop helping the rebels, it would be a heck of a lot easier to talk about gas.

Ukraine also has plenty of untapped natural gas, enough not to need Russia. They just need time to develop that resource.

Regardless, there was a national election, and Russia needs to respect the sovereignty of the Ukrainians. There are some tough choices including dealing with armed rebels are not only defending but attacking. Sure, there are bad things both sides have done. It happens when there is war. But Russia could do a lot to insure they aren't part of it. Eastern Ukraine is going to be a problem for some time, especially if Russia allows arms to flow west to aid the rebels.

Your construct of the situation is a house of cards. I'll stick to judging from the facts as they can be known.

We are equipping and training Kiev's Right Sector volunteers (or National Guard, if you prefer) that is a fact. What Russia might be doing to help Donetsk Republic and Lugansk Republic survive the criminal assault now ongoing is yet to be established as fact.

Now, as to Shale Oil and Natural gas, such wells have been drilled in Poland, but came up mostly Nitrogen. The Nitrogen as so high, that the well was capped as unprofitable even at the high prices prevalent in Europe. It is believed Ukrainian Shale Oil and Natural Gas will be about the same. Even in the US, only two Shale Oil Fields have been profitable, and both are looking like they may "peak out" in 2014 not 2017 as previously expected. The other fields in the US have seen massive reduction in expectations over the last two to three years (Some have seen their estimates of total Oil and Natural gas drop by 95% or more).

Russia's Gazprom reduced gas supplies to Ukraine as soon as the 0600 GMT deadline for Kiev to pay off at least some of its debts passed, a source at the Russian gas exporter said.

The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said: "The Ukrainian volumes were restricted from 10:00 a.m. as was agreed."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/16/ukraine-crisis-gas-supplies-idUSL5N0OX1GI20140616


Gazprom says it will keep supplying gas for Europe, Ukraine must send it on

(Reuters) - Russian gas exporter Gazprom said on Monday it would continue to supply European consumers with gas at "full volume" and Ukraine's state-owned Naftogaz should make sure it transits through the country.

"The gas for European consumers is being delivered at full volume and Naftogas Ukraine is required to transit it," Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov told reporters.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/06/16/ukraine-crisis-gas-european-idUKL5N0OX1EM20140616

It would also be nice if they stopped killing their own citizens

Five people have been killed and another three are missing after a fire swept through an oil refinery in Siberia as a result of a gas explosion, Russian investigators say.

"As a result of the fire five people were killed, (and) another seven were hospitalised with injuries," the investigative committee said in a statement on Monday.

"The fate of three people is currently unknown."

The fire at the Achinsk refinery in the Krasnoyarsk region broke out on Sunday as a result of the gas explosion.

The refinery is owned by state oil giant Rosneft.

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/06/16/five-dead-russian-refinery-fire

http://www.lillooetnews.net/russia-cuts-gas-supply-to-ukraine-rejects-deal-of-initial-1b-payment-1.1131091

.

Naftogaz asking EC for major gas reverse flow from Slovakia.

Naftogaz Ukrainy is asking the European Commission to allow a major reversal of gas flow from Slovakia in light of Russia's decision to halt gas supplies.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/naftogaz-asking-ec-for-major-gas-reverse-flow-from-slovakia-352096.html


The gas isn't the EU's aside from which its Gazproms until it reaches point of a sale and is likely to be paid for.

Ukraine's idea of reverse flows is crook :

Gas supplies from Poland, Hungary to Ukraine contradict contract with Gazprom - Miller

MOSCOW. June 12 (Interfax) - Gas supplies from Poland and Hungary to Ukraine contradict agreement with Russia's Gazprom (MOEX: GAZP), Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller said.

"Reverse supplies are a half-fraud mechanism. The so-called circle reverse, when gas goes in circle at the border between Ukraine and Poland and between Ukraine and Hungary - it shows everyone that physical volumes of European gas are supplied to Ukraine but in reality this is Russian gas," Miller said.

"At that, it is necessary to understand that real consumers in Ukraine get gas, which does not even make it to the Ukrainian border with these states. Ukraine does with our gas what it pleases at its territory, though gas does not change the owner in the Ukrainian pipe," he said.

"We have transfer stations of our Russian gas in Europe, so such schemes are half-fraud and in reality restrictions on supplies might be introduced over such schemes and such regimes. And this has been stated by our President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. This contradicts contracts we have signed with Ukraine," Miller said.

http://www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?id=512989

Ukraine currently has high reserves in the storage tanks . I have a feeling that in the knowledge this is likely to drag on for months they intend to keep those reserves for next winter - 6 month time.

I dunno how long they can hang on, but they can't make it work without massive help, and they won't get it until it's too late, "the West" is grumpy about the imposition as it is, and probably not even then. But they can't back off either, or they will lose what support they have. And these "interim government" guys can't make up to Russia, Russia will insist they go as the first requirement, and they have killed people, made enemies. And Poroshenko is tied to the "interim government" now, he has to break with them or he will be stuck too. Which is what I expect, as I don't think he has the power or the inclination to go that far. But he might.

(Reuters) - President Petro Poroshenko called on Monday for a truce in east Ukraine, where his government faces a rebellion by pro-Russian separatists, to provide time to seek agreement on a peace plan.

In a statement to security chiefs, Poroshenko said he had set government forces the task of regaining full control of Ukraine's border with Russia this week. One this was done, he said, a temporary ceasefire should be observed and efforts made to agree on a peace plan. (Reporting by Natalia Zinets, Editing by Timothy Heritage)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/16/ukraine-crisis-truce-idUSL5N0OX44620140616?rpc=401&feedType=RSS&feedName=rbssEnergyNews&rpc=401

See? He wants to. He knows he has to deal with Russia. He knows the unrest in the East is not all Russia's doing. But he can't just order it, or he would.

state siphoning off a decent amount of gas from pipelines that go into the EU.

I realize that quite a bit of gas now flows around Ukraine, but unless there is a very mild winter, the amount that the Ukrainians take will hurt some EU members. Eventually, Merkel will have to do something to do something to keep a lot of cold, hungry Ukrainians from spilling into the eastern EU states and then into the western.

The alternatives are letting Putin call the shots again or having a relatively populous country fail on its borders, and I don't think that the EU is ready for either one, at least not yet. And yes, the US will have to contribute, and I say better in Ukraine than Iraq or Syria. We need to remember to keep our old promises before we make all sorts of new ones.

This is a bad situation, and I truly feel for all Ukrainians affected.

Making specific predictions is wishful thinking in this sort of mess, way too many unknown players, but that's close enough. It seems certain they will have to do something by the time Winter comes. I just wish they would look more than a step or two ahead.

Dipsy's post #24 seems relevant too. The EU has no intention of doing without Russian gas for a while yet.

Enlarging Russian gas deliveries to the EU via other pipelines will help solve the problems that the EU countries face with respect to their own economies and physical comfort this winter, but it will not solve the problems of a destabilized, hungry and cold Ukraine on the border unless EU countries intend on opening shelters in EU-land for the Ukrainian migrants who will filter west to seek warmth and food. I doubt that the eastern EU countries that would be the most affected would be no more prepared than the US has been with respect to the current influx of unaccompanied minors at our southern border. Those eastern EU countries will be looking west to either foot the bill or take the migrants. As we are seeing in Iraq and Syria, instability is difficult to contain.

... rather than waiting until December to roll around. Not holding my breath on that.

> it will not solve the problems of a destabilized, hungry and cold Ukraine on the border

This helps Putin: he doesn't have to lift a finger to start the destabilisation process as
the dumb greedy Ukrainians did it all for him by not paying their bills while the EU (and
more remote players) just carried on digging their own grave by supporting Ukraine
regardless, thinking that "anything-not-Russia" was somehow the best option.


> Those eastern EU countries will be looking west to either foot the bill or take the migrants.

Those Eastern EU countries can just fuck off then - they should never have been
allowed into the EU in the first place - as we've already been taking too many of their
own people whilst giving too much of our money to "aid" them.

Would you propose a similar response from the US with respect to its undocumented immigrants, such as the minors we now find crossing our southern border?

Just curious.

If there are concerns about "undocumented minors" causing problems now or in the
immediate future, I'd suggest you do something about it sooner rather than later.

Oh wait ... that might be why President Obama mentioned it recently?



The details are completely up to you but pretending a problem doesn't exist is not
the way to address real issues (c.f., climate change as viewed by Southern Republicans).

MOSCOW, June 16 (RIA Novosti) — Russia sees no need for now to hold trilateral gas talks because of the non-constructive position of Kiev, but confirms to be open to dialogue, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Monday.

"As far as further consultations are concerned, we have at first taken the [following] position: we will be ready to continue the negotiations if the bills for gas supplies are paid, this was one of the conditions for us [continuing] the consultations, but unfortunately it was fulfilled partially," Novak said.

"If the $4.5 billion debt is paid we will be able to return to consultations," Novak said.

Russia’s Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller said that there was nothing to discuss at a new round of the three-party gas talks involving Russia, Ukraine and the European Commission.

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140616/190563182/Moscow-Sees-No-Need-for-Gas-Talks-with-Ukraine-EC--Russian.html

Gazprom chief Alexei Miller said Ukraine's "unconstructive" attempts to blackmail the Russian company led to the breakdown in negotiations between the parties.

Thanks to the unconstructive position of the Ukrainian government, today a prepayment regime was introduced," Miller told Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev in front of assembled journalists. "The debt we were asking for was less than that which was required for the time period ... but the Ukrainian side adopted a position that can only be called blackmail ... They wanted an ultra-low price."

Miller said that Ukraine's leaders threatened to siphon off Russian gas bound for Europe, if Moscow did not accept the price that Kiev wanted to pay for gas.

"Ukraine's leadership and the prime minister said that Gazprom and Russia must grant super-low gas prices for Ukraine, nearly the same as for members of the Customs Union [of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan], otherwise... Ukraine will not pay off its gas debt, will take our gas for free in the amount it needs," he said.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/russia-ukraine-gas-crisis-gazprom-chief-accuses-ukrainians-blackmail-eu-urges-further-talks-1452867

MOSCOW, June 16 (RIA Novosti) — If Ukraine disrupts Russian gas transit via its territory, the European Commission is ready to negotiate increased deliveries through the Opal pipeline, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller said Monday.

“We have discussed this issue with the European Commission. It is now as follows: if we record problems with transit via the territory of Ukraine, then the issue of the Opal pipeline will be raised and it will be solved,” Miller said.

The Opal pipeline connects the Nord Stream pipeline with Europe’s gas transportation network. Gazprom was unable to run Nord Stream at full capacity because Europe restricted the volumes of gas permitted for delivery via Opal, under the terms of the so-called EU’s Third Energy Package, which stipulates that the companies involved in gas production cannot be the owners of the long distance pipelines located in the region.

The uninterrupted flow of Russian gas to Europe has recently been put into question by the political crisis in Ukraine and its ballooning gas debt to Russia. The Nord Stream gas pipeline, completed in 2012, is one of the guarantees of reliable Russian gas delivery to Europe, but the transport network requires Opal pipeline to work at full capacity.

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140616/190564008/Europe-Ready-to-Consider-Opal-Pipeline-For-Future-Gas-Supplies-.html

Ukraine's pro-Russia separatists have taken over the Ukrainian central bank's offices in the eastern city of Donetsk. Staff were evacuated and five armed separatists were seen guarding the building on Monday. "We started planning the operation a month ago," one Oleksandr Matsyushin said. . .

http://www.agi.it/english-version/world/elenco-notizie/201406161430-cro-ren1037-separatists_occupy_bank_of_ukraine_offices_in_donetsk

BRATISLAVA, June 16 (Reuters) - European Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said on Monday it would be good for all sides in gas talks between Ukraine and Russia to get back to negotiations before the summer break.

>

"It is my hope and my ambition not to lose some momentum ... so to come together to the next informal or formal (talks) before the summer break should be in the interest of us all," Oettinger, who has brokered a series of three-way talks between Russia, Ukraine and the EU, said while on a visit to the Slovak capital.

"I think this issue could be solvable if we have some additional flexibility."

http://www.trust.org/item/20140616142409-ya0om


Elsewhere :

The scheme that Gunther Oettinger, the European energy commissioner, has suggested for European companies to pump gas into Ukrainian underground storage facilities, is impossible to carry out, Alexei Miller, the head of Russia's Gazprom, told Interfax.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/miller-scheme-for-european-companies-to-pump-gas-into-ukrainian-storage-facilities-impossible-352134.html

The standoff between Ukraine and Russia over gas prices hit a new low Monday, exacerbating fears that a halt in natural gas shipments to Kyiv could ultimately threaten Europe's own energy supplies.

Hours after Moscow halted deliveries to Ukraine on Monday, the head of Russia's Gazprom said Kyiv could illegally divert gas destined for the EU should the country run into shortages.

Half of the gas the EU imports from Russia is transported through pipelines in the Ukraine.

Kyiv has promised to not renege on its gas transport commitments and has said it has enough gas in underground storage to meet its own needs until December.

http://www.dw.de/gas-strife-puts-eu-at-unease/a-17710793

Last edited Tue Jun 17, 2014, 06:48 AM - Edit history (2)

MOSCOW, June 17 (Reuters) - Norway's Statoil could increase gas supplies to the European Union but would not be able to replace Russian gas, CEO Helge Lund said on Tuesday, a day after Moscow cut off supplies to Ukraine over a price dispute.

"We can increase somewhat but we cannot replace Russian gas," Lund told reporters on the sidelines of an energy conference when asked if the company could boost supplies to substitute exports from Russian company Gazprom.

He did not provide any figures.

Statoil is the second largest supplier of natural gas to the European market, with a market share of around 14 percent, according to company data.

http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL5N0OY1N320140617

Meanwhile :



UPDATE 1-Serbia, Russia say ready to go ahead with South Stream gas line

BELGRADE, June 17 (Reuters) - Russia said on Tuesday it expected Serbia to begin building its leg of the Gazprom-led South Stream gas pipeline as planned in July, saying Belgrade and Moscow were ready to move forward with the project.

Against a backdrop of conflict in Ukraine, the pipeline plan has become a focus of tension between Russia and the European Union, with Serbian neighbour Bulgaria this month suspending construction at the behest of Brussels pending a ruling on whether the project complies with EU law.

Serbia finds itself caught between its ambitions to join the EU, with which it has started accession talks, and historical ties with Russia. Gazprom's oil arm, Gazprom Neft, owns 51 percent of Serbia's main oil company, NIS.

Construction of the Serbian leg is due to begin in July.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/06/17/ukraine-crisis-southstream-serbia-idINL5N0OY28820140617

The Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers at its meeting on Wednesday, June 18, intends to approve a bill on the joint operation and modernization of the Ukrainian gas transportation system (GTS) together with the European Union, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk has said.

"As for the gas transportation system, tomorrow the government intends to approve a bill dealing with the joint operation and modernization of the Ukrainian GTS. Time has come for Ukraine to set up a joint venture which should include the members of the Energy Community, and these are the EU member states, which would operate and upgrade the GTS," he said speaking in parliament on Tuesday.

At the same time, the prime minister said Ukraine should have control over the joint venture.

Yatseniuk urged MPs to pass this bill as soon as possible.

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/209654.htmltion sustem

Not clear whether or not this refers their own pipework or includes Gazprom's too.

Once the misery sets in western Ukraine....They won't fault him if he deals with Russia. Right now he is limited to what he can do from the right. But once people die from the lack of heat, jobs lost,...intense suffering from those who do survive, etc. Any deal Poroshenko strikes will suddenly be ok.

Its just sad it has to come to this due to nationalist thinking spurred on by...well, I'll just say anonymous sources because I don't really need to see a certain poster trot out a youtube video and make a lot of wild claims based on it and then reference an episode from south park. All the while ignoring the obvious from a nation with a defined history of interference.