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Omaha Steve

(99,069 posts)
Tue Jun 24, 2014, 11:17 PM Jun 2014

Iraqi prime minister's focus is to defend Baghdad

Source: AP-Excite

By HAMZA HENDAWI and QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA

BAGHDAD (AP) — Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is ready to concede, at least temporarily, the loss of much of Iraq to Sunni insurgents and is instead deploying the military's best-trained and equipped troops to defend Baghdad, Iraqi officials told The Associated Press Tuesday.

Shiite militias responding to a call to arms by Iraq's top cleric are also focused on protecting the capital and Shiite shrines, while Kurdish fighters have grabbed a long-coveted oil-rich city outside their self-ruled territory, ostensibly to defend it from the al-Qaida breakaway group.

With Iraq's bitterly divided sects focused on self-interests, the situation on the ground is increasingly looking like the fractured state the Americans have hoped to avoid.

"We are facing a new reality and a new Iraq," the top Kurdish leader, Massoud Barzani, told U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on Tuesday in Irbil, capital of the self-ruled Kurdish region in northern Iraq.

FULL story at link.


Read more: http://apnews.excite.com/article/20140624/ml-iraq-a5b438193a.html





Iraqi men line up for physical examinations at the main army recruiting center to volunteer for military service in Baghdad, Iraq, Tuesday, June 24, 2014, after authorities urged Iraqis to help battle insurgents. Political leaders have agreed to start the process of seating a new government by July 1. Once a stable government is in place, officials hope Iraqi security forces will be inspired to fight the insurgency instead of fleeing, as they did in several major cities and towns in Sunni-dominated areas since the start of the year.(AP Photo/Karim Kadim)
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Iraqi prime minister's focus is to defend Baghdad (Original Post) Omaha Steve Jun 2014 OP
I believe that would be Maliki's best if not only military tactic at this point. Uncle Joe Jun 2014 #1
He is headed for Saddam's fate. Psephos Jun 2014 #2
Maliki is doing exactly what Tehran is telling him to do. roamer65 Jun 2014 #3
This revolt will not take Baghdad happyslug Jun 2014 #4
And while al-Maliki is focusing on Baghdad, ISIS is taking the Haditha Dam GliderGuider Jun 2014 #5

Uncle Joe

(58,112 posts)
1. I believe that would be Maliki's best if not only military tactic at this point.
Tue Jun 24, 2014, 11:59 PM
Jun 2014

Thanks for the thread, Omaha Steve.

Psephos

(8,032 posts)
2. He is headed for Saddam's fate.
Wed Jun 25, 2014, 12:38 AM
Jun 2014

Just like the judge who ruled Saddam would hang. I'm sure Ghaddafi is in the back of his mind somewhere, too.

It's just matter of time. Al-Maliki is about to find out how few actual friends he has.

roamer65

(36,739 posts)
3. Maliki is doing exactly what Tehran is telling him to do.
Wed Jun 25, 2014, 07:27 PM
Jun 2014

Iran deperately does not want unrest to spread into Southern Iraq and Iran's Khuzestan province. Tehran will invade southern Iraq if they deem it necessary to maintain control over the Arab Shi'a. It's all about oil.

 

happyslug

(14,779 posts)
4. This revolt will not take Baghdad
Wed Jun 25, 2014, 10:18 PM
Jun 2014

The main reason is up till now the Revolt had been going through overwhelming Sunni areas of Iraq. Since the 2003 invasion the Shiites have isolated the Sunni inside Baghdad and have made it a Shiite stronghold. The units that took off their uniform appears to have been majority Sunni units formed by the US and now defecting to their fellow tribesmen (Inside Iraq your Tribe is more important then your religion, but the Tribes tend to be Sunni, Shiite or Christian along with a Tribe of so call Satan Worshipers).

Thus the US Army tried to make a non-tribal and Secular Army and it failed for Tribe is more important to these Arabs then are their religion or even citizenship. Religion just follows tribal lines thus we hear of the Shiite-Sunni Split not the name of the Tribes involved. Furthermore Tribal lines tend to follow trade routes. The Shiites of South Eastern Iraq traditionally traded with Iran, while the Sunni of Northwestern Iraq tended to trade with Saudi Arabia or Turkey (and the Alawites of Syria, of which Assad family is a member of, tend to act as middle men between the Christians of Lebanon and Iran, thus among Sunnis the Alawites have been called Shiite AND Christians for their branch of religion has strong elements of both).

More about the Alawites:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alawites

Thus the Sunnis do not like the Shiites, Christians, Alawites, and the Yazidi in addition to the Jews. Wahhabism/Salafi is the most radical form of this intolerance.

More on Wahhabism or Salafi (another name for the same group): Please note bin Laden was of this branch of Islam, so are the main religious opposition to the Moslem Brotherhood in Egypt and the Rulers of Saudi Arabia in addition to the Radical leading the revolt in Iraq.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salafi_movement

Just pointing out this attack is supported by Saudi Arabia and has massive support among the Sunni areas of Iraq. It loses its steam when it hits Shiite Areas and it is doing so as it gets closer to Baghdad. Thus I do not expect it to take Baghdad (I expect it to try, but not succeed). I suspect the House of Saud also knows this, but what to push Iranian influence as close to Iran as it can. Thus this is not only a Sunni-Shiite Fight but a House of Saud vs Iran fight. Iran will take what ever steps it can to prevent the fall of Baghdad, but Iranian Troops will only go in if Iran gets assurances that the US would not attack such forces. The House of Saud wants Baghdad for with it they can control most of Iraq, and in many ways that is the goal, Saudi Arabian control of Iraq, something the House of Saud has dreamed up for decades, but appear out of their hands given how the US dealt with the Shiites Majority when fighting Saddam and the subsequent guerrilla war with the Sunnis of Iraq.

As I said, this revolt has no deep support much further then it has gone. Without that support, its lighting attacks are the thing of the past. If the US does nothing but permits Iran to do something, this will be over in a month except for people spitting at each other over whatever is the eventual truce line. If the US gives Iran the go ahead to take the Sunni Area, that would take a little longer, but Iran can do it. If the US says NO to any Iranian intervention, then it is up to the Shiites of Iraq to handle this revolt. A truce will be formed up, but int 3-4 months not the 30 days of an Iranian Intervention.

On the other hand, if the US abandons the Shiites and threaten to bomb Iran if they intervene, then the Revolts has a chance to take over even Southern Iraq. Notice I say possible, I suspect that the Shiites will fight back hard and the resulting war will be a long hard fought war. In such a war I suspect the Shiites will win in the long run, but it would be tough over the next several months.

Notice the key is what will the US do, give permission for Iran to Intervene or tell Iran NOT to intervene. What the US does will set the stage and what the US wants is NOT clear at the present time.

For more on the Yazidi:

Of the so called Satan Worshipers. Christian and Jewish traditions have stories as to the creation of the Angels, but they never made it into the Bible. These stories exist, but are not given much wait by Christian or Jewish Theologians. On the other hand the Koran contain some of these stories and the one regarding the creation of Satan is where Moslems and the Yazidi differ. When God made the Arch Angels God first made Satan. Satan was followed by six other archangels. When God Created man, God asked the Arch Angels to bow down to man, all but Satan did so. Among Moslem this refusal was an act of excess pride and caused God to banish Satan to hell. Among the Yazidi, God understood he had told Satan NEVER to bow to anyone and praised Satan for following God's rule given to Satan.

The Yazidi appear to be a pre-Zoroastrianism Iranian Religion that has absorbed various other traditions from Christianity, Zoroastrianism and Islam. The influence of Zoroastrianism on Judaism, Christianity and even Islam was great. Mohammad called Zoroastrianism one of the four religions of the Koran, the others being Islam, Christianity and Judaism. Zoroastrianism also seems to have a strong influence on the Yazidi, but a fundamental change difference from the Zoroastrianism, Judaism, Christianity and Islam in that Satan became a good guy to the Yazidi, while he assumed an evil disposition among Zoroastrianism, Judaism, Christianity and Islam.

Now, Zoroastrianism had a strong tendency to opposites, Good vs Evil, Day vs night etc., thus most modern Historians believe the concept that Satan was the opposite of God developed under Zoroastrianism and from there expanded into Judaism, Christianity and Islam. Thus it is believed the modern concept of Hell and Satan came from Zoroastrianism via the Babylonian exile of the Jews (Cyrus the Great, the man who conquered the Babylonian empire and made it part of Persia is believed to have been a follower of Zoroastrianism, Cyrus is credited by the Jews for permitting them back to Judea).

Some how this view that Satan must be opposite to God was rejected by the Yazidi for the Yazidi do NOT worship an evil Satan cult as such Satanic cults are portrayed in the West, but Satan as the chief Arch Angel of God. Thus Yazidi use the same name for this Arch Angel as the Koran uses Satan, but the two forms are actually opposite of each other. Among Moslems, Jews and Christians, Satan is the chief cause of evil in the world, he is NOT to be trusted. Among the Yazidi he is their chief protector after God and all evil comes from the inside of man and this sinful world, not the product of Satan.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yazidi
 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
5. And while al-Maliki is focusing on Baghdad, ISIS is taking the Haditha Dam
Wed Jun 25, 2014, 11:23 PM
Jun 2014

And maybe the Mosul Dam as well. With those in hand, the fate of Baghdad can be decided without a direct armed assault.

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