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FLPanhandle

(7,107 posts)
Mon Dec 1, 2014, 09:05 AM Dec 2014

Rouble suffers worst fall since 1998 crisis

Source: Financial Times

The rouble nosedived on Monday, suffering its worst daily fall since Russia’s 1998 crisis amid renewed fears over the impact of tumbling oil prices on the country’s economy. The currency fell nearly 9 per cent against the dollar at one stage before staging a rally. However, at 12.30pm GMT, the currency was trading Rbs52.3 against the US currency, was still down 5.8 per cent on the day.

<snip>


The plunge in Brent crude leaves many other emerging market currencies under acute strain. Nigeria’s central bank, which was forced into an 8 per cent devaluation of the naira last week, is struggling to keep the currency within its new target trading band. The naira was down 2.5 per cent at N183 to the dollar on Monday trading.

Iranian official media cited the country’s economy minister warning against “frenzied behaviour” after Iranians rushed to buy foreign currency over the weekend. Venezuela’s exchange rate controls – in which the black market value of the dollar is vastly higher than any of the official rates set in a three-tiered system – will come under further pressure.


Read more: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4bb50fcc-7937-11e4-9567-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3KePA6Rvu



Putin may not be able to afford to rebuild his USSR empire after all, at least militarily.
19 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Rouble suffers worst fall since 1998 crisis (Original Post) FLPanhandle Dec 2014 OP
That is the whole purpose of this debacle. DeSwiss Dec 2014 #1
Damn. That's getting close to the Rupee (nt) Recursion Dec 2014 #2
This doesn't look good. PeoViejo Dec 2014 #3
I am certainly not a fan of OPEC's borderline wreckless attempts to start a price war. BlueEye Dec 2014 #4
The Saudis can produce oil very cheaply PeoViejo Dec 2014 #5
IIRC the Saudis have two and a half trillion dollars CJCRANE Dec 2014 #9
Oil Prices Are International Big Money Collusion, Always Have Been 0nirevets Dec 2014 #6
Venezuela is the country in real trouble hack89 Dec 2014 #7
The Venezuelan Finance Minister is already in China trying to get a bailout package of loans. FLPanhandle Dec 2014 #11
A Russian friend told me years ago the Russian economy will rise and fall on on word DFW Dec 2014 #8
"Putin may not be able to afford to rebuild his USSR empire after all, at least militarily" Tarheel_Dem Dec 2014 #10
...about the upcoming Big Oil Bailout... Martak Sarno Dec 2014 #12
amazing how quickly the price of oil can fall and go up. doesn't seem like a free market to me. samsingh Dec 2014 #13
Of course it isn't. OPEC, by definition, controls the market. FLPanhandle Dec 2014 #14
Not good news re human rights & democracy in Russia uhnope Dec 2014 #15
Why do you think Obama has pushed for increased domestic production? alfredo Dec 2014 #16
Not only that..... DeSwiss Dec 2014 #18
China was probably able to cut a very good deal, much better than if alfredo Dec 2014 #19
1998 ... good old LTCM memories .. those sums look tiny compared to today jakeXT Dec 2014 #17
 

PeoViejo

(2,178 posts)
3. This doesn't look good.
Mon Dec 1, 2014, 09:44 AM
Dec 2014

for the Banksters either. The Megabanks have been speculating in Commodities and driving up the prices for everyone. I hope they really get burned on this one.

Jump you Fuckers.

BlueEye

(449 posts)
4. I am certainly not a fan of OPEC's borderline wreckless attempts to start a price war.
Mon Dec 1, 2014, 10:04 AM
Dec 2014

But I do believe there is some serious Karma regarding the terrible impact on the Russian economy. Putin's support for the Assad regime and similar posturing has eliminated much of his clout with the Saudis/Arab States.

What I'm trying to figure out is who the Saudi's are trying to harm with this... The Russians? The Iranians? American producers? They may implode their own economy in the process.

 

PeoViejo

(2,178 posts)
5. The Saudis can produce oil very cheaply
Mon Dec 1, 2014, 10:20 AM
Dec 2014

Their problem is servicing their Debt. At the beginning of the War on Iraq, $40/Barrel was needed to break-even. Saddam was undercutting them, thus he had to be taken-out. I don't know what the figure is now, but I think they still have some margin left and have enough reserves to hold out for a while.

CJCRANE

(18,184 posts)
9. IIRC the Saudis have two and a half trillion dollars
Mon Dec 1, 2014, 11:30 AM
Dec 2014

in reserves and the Russians have four hundred and fifty billion, so the Saudis can afford to sit this out for a while.

0nirevets

(391 posts)
6. Oil Prices Are International Big Money Collusion, Always Have Been
Mon Dec 1, 2014, 10:41 AM
Dec 2014

You want to know why gasoline prices go up when they should go down? How they stay high when all indicators point lower, and sometimes (as now) visa versa? The price of crude and the retail price of gasoline have since the early days of OPEC been political and economic manipulative instruments of major US and OPEC producers. I am a graduate student (MPA). One of my Saudi classmates told me how in their country where oil is plentiful by comparison, and of course has always been nationalized, they pay roughly $3 US per TANK of gasoline--repeat: not per gallon, per tank! He says paying $45 or more to fill up in the US is a budget cruncher.
Oil, like other basic commodities in the US and elsewhere, should rationally, ethically, morally, be nationalized. In the hands of private, for-profit industrialists it is a tool of economic-political manipulation and subjugation.
What we are witnessing is a planned, complex international power play, a big-oil version of Skyfall, "last rat standing".

hack89

(39,171 posts)
7. Venezuela is the country in real trouble
Mon Dec 1, 2014, 10:42 AM
Dec 2014

their economy was spiraling down the drain well before oil prices started going down.

FLPanhandle

(7,107 posts)
11. The Venezuelan Finance Minister is already in China trying to get a bailout package of loans.
Mon Dec 1, 2014, 12:35 PM
Dec 2014

The % of their GDP they owe to China already is so large, I'm not sure they'll get more unless they basically sign over so much future oil to them that it kills them over the long haul.

DFW

(54,358 posts)
8. A Russian friend told me years ago the Russian economy will rise and fall on on word
Mon Dec 1, 2014, 10:53 AM
Dec 2014

Нефт

"Nyeft" i.e. oil.

The oil price is way down, and so is Putin's war chest. Unfortunately for the Russians, so is their state budget.

Tarheel_Dem

(31,233 posts)
10. "Putin may not be able to afford to rebuild his USSR empire after all, at least militarily"
Mon Dec 1, 2014, 12:32 PM
Dec 2014

Makes you wonder if Crimea was worth it, and who the hell's gonna feed 'em all?

Martak Sarno

(77 posts)
12. ...about the upcoming Big Oil Bailout...
Mon Dec 1, 2014, 01:22 PM
Dec 2014

First the Banks, now maybe those poor Oil Companies??
How will they ever manage to stay profitable on just public funded subsidies and huge tax breaks?

(I shed a tear!)

FLPanhandle

(7,107 posts)
14. Of course it isn't. OPEC, by definition, controls the market.
Mon Dec 1, 2014, 01:39 PM
Dec 2014

It hasn't been a free market since the early 1970's.

It can't be when a group is basically a monopoly and can control price and supply.

 

uhnope

(6,419 posts)
15. Not good news re human rights & democracy in Russia
Mon Dec 1, 2014, 03:42 PM
Dec 2014

Putin may have to increase his grip on power with even more crackdowns on dissent, more persecution of scapegoats like the gay community, and more neo-Nazi death squads. Of course, if he wasn't such a freaking head case with a Napoleon complex, Russia wouldn't be in such a bad place economically in the first place.

alfredo

(60,071 posts)
16. Why do you think Obama has pushed for increased domestic production?
Mon Dec 1, 2014, 05:49 PM
Dec 2014

Obama is sticking it to Putin and other adversaries that depend on oil money.

 

DeSwiss

(27,137 posts)
18. Not only that.....
Mon Dec 1, 2014, 10:10 PM
Dec 2014

...but in addition to narrowing the shale gas market opportunities for the U.S. in the EU, the $400 billion dollar-valued deal recently signed between Russia and China, will all be paid for in Roubles and Yuans. No Petrodollars need apply.

- If you'll recall, that's the move that cost Saddam Hussein the job we gave him......

[center]21st Century American Ingenuity
[/center]

alfredo

(60,071 posts)
19. China was probably able to cut a very good deal, much better than if
Mon Dec 1, 2014, 11:17 PM
Dec 2014

Russia was in a stronger bargaining position.

jakeXT

(10,575 posts)
17. 1998 ... good old LTCM memories .. those sums look tiny compared to today
Mon Dec 1, 2014, 06:34 PM
Dec 2014

1998 bailout
On September 23, 1998, the chiefs of some of the largest investment firms of Wall Street—Bankers Trust, Bear Stearns, Chase Manhattan, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, and Salomon Smith Barney—met on the 10th floor conference room of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (pictured) to rescue LTCM.

Long-Term Capital Management did business with nearly everyone important on Wall Street. Indeed, much of LTCM's capital was composed of funds from the same financial professionals with whom it traded. As LTCM teetered, Wall Street feared that Long-Term's failure could cause a chain reaction in numerous markets, causing catastrophic losses throughout the financial system. After LTCM failed to raise more money on its own, it became clear it was running out of options. On September 23, 1998, Goldman Sachs, AIG, and Berkshire Hathaway offered then to buy out the fund's partners for $250 million, to inject $3.75 billion and to operate LTCM within Goldman's own trading division. The offer was stunningly low to LTCM's partners because at the start of the year their firm had been worth $4.7 billion. Warren Buffett gave Meriwether less than one hour to accept the deal; the time lapsed before a deal could be worked out.[22]

Seeing no options left the Federal Reserve Bank of New York organized a bailout of $3.625 billion by the major creditors to avoid a wider collapse in the financial markets.[23] The principal negotiator for LTCM was general counsel James G. Rickards.[24] The contributions from the various institutions were as follows:[25][26]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management

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