BTRTN's Annual Major League Baseball Hall of Fame Predictions: Mariano, Edgar and the Moose

The forecasting website gives its annual predictions with lots of analysis...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/01/btrtns-annual-major-league-baseball.html

"Each year we analyze the baseball Hall of Fame ballot to answer two questions: 1) which nominees will be elected in this year’s voting, receiving at least 75% of the vote of the Baseball Writers Association of America (we also predict what percentage each nominee will receive), and 2) who amongst the nominees deserves to be in the Hall of Fame? The two lists are never identical. For the first question, we use various statistical models to come up with an initial estimate of the percentage of the vote they will receive, and we use judgment to massage and finalize that estimate. For the second question, we have developed a methodology to compare nominees to their predecessors to determine their HOF-worthiness.

Last year we had a very good year. We predicted accurately that first-timers Chipper Jones and Jim Thome would be elected, and that returnees Vladimir Guerrero and Trevor Hoffman would make the grade as well. We also did quite well in predicting the actual voting percentages of most on the ballot, missing only two players relatively egregiously, underestimating Omar Vizquel and overestimating Scott Rolen. Both were first-timers and both slick fielders, and those two factors pose massive issues for those in the HOF projection business, as was revealed yet again. (We were also pretty far off on Andruw Jones at a much lower vote level; he, too, was legendary defensively.) Because defensive metrics are neither perfect nor widely known, strong defensive players are more difficult to assess. But everyone else was within field goal range. I was off on average by 4.8 percentage points per nominee, better than the 5.9 “miss” in each of the previous two years...."