I don't know what on earth Wales would stand to get from UKIP; but then I don't know what anywhere would get from them, except a lot of bigoted rubbish, and plenty of hot air to go with their global warming denial. But they are so narrowly 'English' that it always surprises me when people in other parts of the UK vote for them.

Given the speed with which individual UKIP officials and candidates are imploding at the moment (allegations of sexual harassment at the highest level, the usual crazy public utterances, evidence of entryism from the far, far right etc., lack of a coherent platform beyond rank xenophobia, evidence of infighting under Farage's autocratic and mercurial style of leadership), once people are faced with the grisly reality of an individual to vote for (or against), the picture could be quite different. That poll's not going to take into account more recent shenanigans anyway, however sound (or not) its methodology

That doesn't mean that the other parties don't have a hill to climb between now and May, though (as the results for "don't know" at that link show). If it's framed as a popularity contest for Miliband etc., it could go badly, on current form. If it's framed on the basis of individual candidates' merits (or lack of them), then it's down to the intelligence of the electorate.

The danger is that Labour, the Tories, and Lib Dems will take it as a signal to move right and keep knocking chunks off each other in that race to the bottom, rather than challenging UKIP. I'd hope Plaid has more sense (certainly the leadership's making the right noises at the moment), and I'm pretty sure the Greens won't fall for it.

And yeah, the media has done nobody any favors so far, in Wales and to a lesser extent in Scotland, where the new daily paper The National is doing very well, among other initiatives. UKIP had a shamefully easy ride until recently, and the BBC in particular should be ashamed of itself. UKIP are now whingeing under the glare of unwelcome publicity about a bunch of stuff they'd rather not talk about. We'll see if that trend continues. It's not the first time a party of their ilk has put the cat among the pigeons, and they've all eventually faded or collapsed.

Did you see this interesting news?

Former Plaid Cymru and Conservative councillors unveiled as Ukip defectors

I think the Plaid Cymru guy will be in for a rude awakening. Serves him right for trying to promote himself above his constituents.

Smells like a sour-grapes careerist to me, and a failed very minor politician, on the evidence available (voted out of a local council seat after eight years' incumbency and flunking the hustings isn't a stellar track record).

My info on Plaid (I'm Welsh, left Wales long ago, living in Scotland for about 30 years) comes from the Scottish media, both mainstream and alternative/grassroots. Leanne Wood's formed quite an alliance with the Yes bloc in Scotland. Whatever your views about the Yes camp and the SNP, there's no doubt that the broad church has moved left and is likely to continue to do so since Sturgeon took over the leadership (Salmond had already taken the SNP leftish after years in the doldrums, and cemented that position).