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RBInMaine

(13,570 posts)
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:48 PM Mar 2016

What seems to have happened in MI was the effect of Indies and probably under-polled students.

Last edited Wed Mar 9, 2016, 05:33 AM - Edit history (1)

This is my theory. Indies swayed the vote, and young people such as students may have been under-polled. Some R's may also have voted in the Dem primary for Bernie, and a good number of Clinton voters may have stayed home thinking she was going to win because of the polls.

Indies should not be allowed to come in and take over a party's primary.

20 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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MADem

(135,425 posts)
1. It's proportionally awarded, so no matter what happens, HRC is going to win the lion's share
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:51 PM
Mar 2016

of delegates on the day from all the states with races.

Tommy2Tone

(1,307 posts)
4. He's putting his time in Missouri and Ohio
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:28 AM
Mar 2016

Same number of delegates as Florida and same demographics as Michigan.

Tommy2Tone

(1,307 posts)
3. CNN was just talking about his point
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:27 AM
Mar 2016

and the fact that Michigan is a open primary state and Sanders is winning huge with Independents.

book_worm

(15,951 posts)
5. True.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:29 AM
Mar 2016

The polls were really off. Even if HRC pulls out a very narrow win. I'd rather have had the polls showing the true picture than expecting a solid victory.

rateyes

(17,438 posts)
8. I am not trying to be ugly here, but am asking
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:36 AM
Mar 2016

A sincere question. A post in this thread mentioned the fact that Sanders is winning big among Indies. Looking ahead to the General Election, why would we rather nominate someone who is less likely to win over independents? It seems to me that having independents vote in an open primary gives us a better picture of which of our candidates would be more electable.

Response to rateyes (Reply #8)

rateyes

(17,438 posts)
10. I don't know the answer to your question.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:00 PM
Mar 2016

I really don't. But, I do know that most of Hillary's big wins are in reliably republican states. I really think we need to look at the picture in the swing states and figure out who is most likely to whip a Ted Cruz there.

 

Her Sister

(6,444 posts)
11. well women and minorities and regular Dems are important too!
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:01 PM
Mar 2016

plus the older voters too and le'ts not forget the more moderate ones plus people who like Obama. Need to win them over too,,, and BS has a problem with moost of these key-Dem-demographics

Response to Her Sister (Reply #11)

auntpurl

(4,311 posts)
14. Good question.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:13 PM
Mar 2016

Yes, of course, independents are important in the GE. But the primaries are about choosing the Democratic party's nominee. I feel (and maybe it's just me) like Democrats should get to choose their nominee alone. Then the rest of the country can come in and decide which of the two party's candidate is the one they like best.

Only my opinion.

romana

(765 posts)
15. Independent votes
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:15 PM
Mar 2016

There's data to suggest that among people who identify as independents, they still lean left or right in their overall voting patterns, but do switch it up more than registered members of the two parties. Given the choice between Clinton and Sanders, those left-leaning independents voted for Sanders, and would probably vote for him against Trump. However, given the choice between Clinton and Trump, I think many of those same left-leaning independents would vote for Clinton.

Also, it's important to remember that the GOP smear machine hasn't even started on Sanders, and Clinton has been pretty kid gloves with him as well (which is fine, I'd prefer our contest to stay that way). Sanders has a lot of negatives in his past that they'll hammer the way he's hammering Clinton on trade in the rust belt. We don't know what effect that'll have.

It's still a valid question, though--he is winning the independent vote and the Clinton campaign should pay attention to that.

yardwork

(61,417 posts)
18. Reasonable question, but we just don't know how the independents would vote in the GE.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 04:57 PM
Mar 2016

The nightmare scenario would be that independents get Bernie chosen as the Democratic candidate, then vote for the Republican for president.

 

RBInMaine

(13,570 posts)
19. Because Bernie is something "new and different" which appeals to Indies.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 05:04 PM
Mar 2016

Indies are often looking for something "new and different." This is part of it, especially liberal leaning Indies. At the end of the day, they are also fairly practical and will not go with an extremist in the general election which is what the R's are offering. Liberal indies are often more likely to respond to broad, vague "principles" rather than details, especially young Indies. To give him credit, Bernie is compelling and is offering big things and saying big things that are appealing. But he struggles with details and practicality. He is therefore especially appealing to young, mostly white, idealistic, liberal to very liberal Indies and other Indies who are angry at "the system." No worries. At the end of the day, they will go with Hillary long before Frankentrump.

rateyes

(17,438 posts)
20. In another thread you seemed pretty confident
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 06:02 PM
Mar 2016

Of a big win for Hillary in Michigan. No offense, but I think you might be overthinking about the mood of the electorate. My 20 something yr old daughters (3 of them) are voting Hillary, going against the polls for their demographic. This 56 yr old man, wants Bernie. I just think that, for the most part, the country is really getting more anti-establishment than anything. We are tired of getting screwed over.

Loki

(3,825 posts)
13. So was this an open primary?
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:08 PM
Mar 2016

Anyone can declare and vote in the primary? So Republican's and Independents can vote for the opposing candidate and act as a spoiler?

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