They both turned out big time.

Don't get too discouraged about next week. Bernie has very little presence in Florida and the demographics there aren't in his favor.

Ohio, after Michigan tonight, is an open question.

One thing we've learned tonight is to treat all polls with great skepticism. Bernie won with underpolled groups.

And Nate Silver needs to rework his formula.

But I am concerned about OH and I feel like we have some reason to worry about IL - which should be a lock for us. That's Clinton country. But if she loses OH and has another close race in IL, wins FL and NC, she will have a significant delegate lead. But I could see Bernie putting together a string of impressive *looking* wins across the West and NW.

Meanwhile we have GE concerns growing that we can't address because we are spending too much time on Bernie. We need to start bringing independents to the table or preparing to do so in November.

What's the magic number this year?

... in spite of last night's surprise, it still looks like Bernie can't catch up without MASSIVE wins in delegate rich states.

Hillary will be OUR party's nominee.

This doesn't affect the delegate totals, but she has consistently underperformed polling in the north, even when she won in Mass and Ia. I don't think Bernie can make up the deficit in delegates, but I certainly don't trust the polling anymore. I expect IL, OH to be closer than expected, but FL should be a solid win. I suspect Bernie will take the rest of the Mountain West, Washington and Oregon (probably by 10+ margins in all), Hillary will take Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania (in a close one), New York (larger), Connecticut and Rhode Island. New Mexico will go for Hillary, Arizona is a toss-up - high Latino vote, but the leading Latino legislator here endorsed Bernie, and we have a strong Libertarian streak. California I expect to be close but ultimately a Hillary victory. But Bernie needs blowouts in Ill, New York and California to catch up, and I just don't see that happening.

I do expect her to win her home state. Sure, she's made homes in other states over the years, but THIS is where she was born. That does help.

but I don't think there's much she can or really needs to change. The RW has had decades to lay the groundwork for the blitz of anti-Clinton messaging that hit MI in the last week or so. Bernie outspent her in Flint by 2-1 and the state by over a million $ per NPR. Hillary can't undo all that in a week but she can keep do what she's doing, which is projecting a smart, super-competent persona in her debates and campaign appearances. I think she's going to win the nom and GE in any case but turning around all that noise is going to take more time and patience.

I think that the totals were so close that it wasn't anything against her, but more about his message. She needs to explain better how she can help the rust belt. No need trying to compete with his anti wall street message, I think she fails when she does that, rather than getting specific on HOW she will bring jobs back, good jobs. She needs to deliver a hopeful message.

I think we relied too much on polling. Polling in some states is more accurate than others. My state polls are rarely accurate so I never look.

I think it's fine that he is still in because I want to give republicans time to have the shootout at their convention, while still keepimg attention on the democratic side.

Hillary won the Michigan primary in 2008 and Obama won Michigan in the general election. I hate having to point this out in a Hillary group but this sky is falling bullshit is driving me crazy. Hillary won the night 81-64 or should we just ignore Mississippi?

and those working class voters are basically white voters. She won the black vote 2-1.

We need to work on getting that back down to twenty like in other states and puch for large margins in states with the most blacks, like the Lovely state of mississippi. I have family there, and I know how they voted...

Michigan moved the date up and he and Edwards chose not to have it count so weren't on the ballot. Hillary, of course, did go on the ballot, and went and worked hard there (as she always does). So the state goes and turns its back on the only Democratic candidate who supported them moving up the primaries 8 years ago. I feel so many of the stresses of the 2008 primary season returning.

But that makes my point even better. She got all Michigan's delegates and still lost.

I remember everyone pulling out their hair because they might count, but that ultimately they weren't included in the total. And I think there was another state involved - Florida maybe? - with the same situation. I'd have to look it up to confirm, but it's all rushing back to me now.

I forgot since it's been 8 years.

It turned out Michigan wasted Hillary's time.

I just looked it up. Boy, there were some knockdown, drag outs over that at the time.

It's just tough when your opponent's "plan" boils down to:

A) Wall Street sucks
B) Free stuff

Hillary is best when she is just being herself - an executive leader.

But some voters want concrete plans and experience, and she wins those hands down.

All I can say is we increased the delegate lead today. Keep doing this and it's a slow and steady march to the nom

We gone through... um... how may years of total gridlock? People are sick of it, on both sides. DUH!

but I think that Bernie put in a more vigorous campaign. Hillary largely stayed in Detroit and she is doing well there but Bernie is largely taking the rest of the state. I think she needs to campaign more among young people. There is no reason why Bernie should be getting 80% of those under 30. She should go to colleges more and try to reach out to students. Even a few points improvement can make a difference.

Michigan demographically should have been close. The polls said otherwise. I think it's pretty clear that demographics are the indicator much more than the polls.

Hillary is doing to Bernie what Obama did to her but better.

Obama swept through the south and won the nomination. Hillary is doing the same thing. Unlike Obama she won Texas and is poised to win Florida.

Bernie like Hillary in 2008 can win Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, NY, California and still lose the nomination.

Unless the numbers change dramatically there is little path for Bernie to secure the nomination.

Bernie won a moral victory but I see no need to stop pointing out the differences between her and Sanders.

Hillary won the delegate battle 81 to 64 and you're kinda doing a Chicken Little thing here.

Cali has alot of minorities. That should put her over the top.

Still, the polling was terrible and Nate Silver was the worst. He was dead wrong.

The polls themselves appear to be a problem, garbage in - garbage out. Like Silver said, this could be an outlier, further elections should shed more light.

I realize we have a significant delegate lead...BUT...I just felt like a 67%/33% win tonight was what we needed to have the Sanders' concession speech writer start warming up in the bullpen.

I'm not going to dwell on this, but I hope we see some improvement with several demographics in OH and IL.

[div class="excerpt"
Pledged Delegates Super Delegates Total

Clinton 762 472 1234

Sanders 544 23 567

1149 to go if we count supers; 1621 if we do not for Clinton
1839 to go for Bernie without supers; 1816 with supers

Not looking so bad for us when we take a look at the numbers

It's just shocking at first because the polls were so insanely Wrong.. but, crossover anti Hillary votes would explain a lot and those types would be voting for the repub in the GE anyway.

Still trying to sort that part out. Bet Nate was scratching his head tonight.

We gotta win the other states. Keep his wins to low margins. Nate has got to update his methodology.

It's another "rust belt" state.

Probably barely win that one, regardless of the polls. New York will go better. Florida too, it's closed. I think that she will increase her lead on the fifteenth. In the meantime she can tighten up her message and spend some time on the ground.

What are the chances of the polling being so far off twice in a week?

But I give them less of my time

kept bringing them up during the debate. lots of people from michigan lost their jobs because of NAFTA. on the other hand hillary voted to bail out the auto industry.

Younger voters have heard the right wing anti-Hillary lies and talking points their entire lives. It is pretty hard not to have some lingering doubts when you are constantly hearing that she is untrustworthy, and worse. She will certainly go down in history as the most attacked politician ever. Too bad that most people don't dig deeper to see than none of the attacks are based on truth. This combined with the youth/idealist things (that we see often in politics - think Gary Hart, Ross Perot, Ralph Nader, Ron Paul), led to the results of today.

The tipping point is that the right continues hammering on Hillary, while leaving Bernie totally alone. You know they are dying to attack an agnostic/socialist, but are very good at resisting in the hope that he wins the nomination. They could take him down so easily. All those polls that the Bernie-ites keep bragging about are irrelevant. Hillary has been attacked for years, while Bernie NEVER has.

I had to explain to my (10 years) younger boyfriend about that one; he kept telling me imaginary horrible things Hillary had done that he saw on Facebook and I had to explain that it was the exact same BS (not the candidate) they were saying back in the 90's while foaming at the mouth over a (D) holding the office.

Luckily he's 'innoculated' to the garbage now.

I'm sure Michigan Hillary supporters stayed home in droves, given the huge spreads reported by the polls. They made me very nervous, for that very reason.

Exit polls in MI I saw last night showed Hillary winning among registered Democrats 2:1, but independents voting in the Democratic primary favored Bernie 2:1.

So here are my questions. In Michigan, who are those independents? Are they lefties or are they right-wingers? Did the Green Party GOTV for Bernie in MI yesterday? Or, did the Sovereign Staters (and I know Michigan has their share) show up at our primary and vote for Bernie? Or are the independents in MI former Democrats who are pissed off at the establishment?

Until we know this, we can't predict what will happen in the other states in the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This might turn out to be Bernie country.

Just my opinion and looking at races in the past. It's not beneath them to do it knowing Trump h ad that state locked up.

And the Sovereign Staters. I have relatives in western Michigan who are essentially Nazis. I have no idea if they even vote - I interact with them as infrequently as possible - but I doubt they are registered with any party. If they are registered at all, they are independents. I can see them voting for Bernie with very little info - just the knowledge that he's a white guy who protects their guns. They will hate Hillary because she's a woman and they think that Bill Clinton was way too liberal.

They will vote for Trump in the general.

lefties and righties. In tracking past elections, most concur that they've more often voted for Rep candidates. When there has been a third candidate (e.g., Wallace, Perot, Nader), they've usually gone for that option.

I don't know whether there is any credible measure to determine their leanings. All we have to go by are their own statements or voting patterns, and those can literally shift from one day/week/month to the next.

It's their very nature not to be tied to a party and when they do choose a candidate, they passionately STAY with that candidate unless or until that candidate says/does something that they regard as a betrayal. Then all bets are off. That is why it is very difficult to count on their allegiance for much more than a campaign season, if that. For a LT "movement," it's like building a house on sand.

It is my strong belief that at least some indies DID cross-over specifically to chuck a spanner in the Clinton operation. I doubt whether they were in the majority, however.

make no mistake, 30 years of rightwing media bashing has had effect on some voters....combine this with some really awful pollsters....she was a sitting duck. I understand her reluctance to go full nuclear on bernie as his supporters are pretty much thin skinned kids who never been in politics or primaries. We see their "I'll take my ball home if bernie is not the nominee" attitude here all the time.

I think hillary's campaign should not make it personal against bernie but they need to start pointing out the areas that the righwing media will launch their attacks on bernie....bernie is vulnerable on many levels....from his CO days during vietnam war to his actual leadership record....to shilling for the NRA....the rightwing media will turn him into the second coming of Stalin....combined with being an appeaser who wishes to avoid armed confrontations....

of course just the demographics that bernie is failing with is a huge weakness

hillary change in tact should focus on her ability of getting stuff down and making the hard choices vs bernie sitting back railing about how bad the system is.....

Bernie campaigned the whole state, Clinton did not.

Frank Cluskey, was once famously asked why he lost a particular election:

Look, son. I think it's because not enough people voted for me.

Many reasons given...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-polls-missed-bernie-sanders-michigan-upset/

"If Bernie Sanders were to defeat Hillary Clinton in Michigan’s Democratic primary, it would be “among the greatest polling errors in primary history,” our editor in chief, Nate Silver, wrote Tuesday evening when results started to come in. Sanders pulled it off, and now we’re left wondering how it happened. How did Sanders win by 1.5 percentage points when our polling average showed Clinton ahead by 21 points and our forecasts showed that Sanders had less than a 1 percent chance of winning?

With a polling miss this big, no single factor is likely to explain it, so more than one answer could be correct. Also, not every pollster releases detailed data, and it may take some time to fully diagnose what went wrong. “It’s a little bit of everything,” Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray told The Huffington Post.

Here is our initial assessment of some possible explanations, along with comments from some of the pollsters who had reported a big Clinton lead:...."

as it is not winner take all like in the GE. Hillary still got almost as many delegates as he did.

I saw some throw-away spot on CNN (I think) interviewing the local 2A fanclub at their shooting picnic. I can also buy Republican cross-over votes.

New Hillary Supporter from Michigan ....a must read


Get a load of this made us so mad ...our TV station in Grand Rapids runs this all the time..

[link:http://www.wzzm13.com/news/politics/elections/high-turnout-late-deciders-propel-bernie-sanders-big-win-in-michigan/74646173|