STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 9, 2016

Last edited Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:08 PM - Edit history (1)

Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 1,221, Sanders 571 (Clinton +650).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 770, Sanders 551 (Clinton +219).
Versus Targets: Clinton 770/682 (+88), Sanders 551/639 (-88).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 46.0% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

March 8 (MI, MS): Clinton 93, Sanders 73 (Clinton +20).
Versus Targets: Clinton 93/86 (+7), Sanders 73/80 (-7).


Next Primary: March 15

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: 691 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 365, Sanders 326.
Northern Marianas votes on March 12: 6 delegates.



Comments
As the headline of The Onion read in the period following 9/11, holy fucking shit.

Nobody, but nobody, had any rational reason to expect Bernie to win Michigan. Not a single poll had Hillary ahead by less than 5 points, and many polls showed her 20 points or more. This is the biggest primary upset since 1984, when Mondale led by 17 points in New Hampshire, but Gary Hart ended up winning by 9 points.

We don't know how it happened, and as you can see, it didn't help Bernie much at all; it just prolonged his stay in the race. Bernie has met or exceeded his target in eight contests, and in no case by more than 4 delegates. Even in Michigan, he exceeded his target by only 2.

Even so, Hillary supporters are very rightly reeling, and examining ourselves for complacency. For my part, I am temporarily (I hope) discontinuing the polls and projections part of this post. From now on, assume every poll is wrong, especially in open primary states (this includes Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio). I'm going to focus on hard numbers, and on getting out the vote everywhere I can.

I'm also discontinuing the GOP section because screw 'em.


How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics.


Iditarod Update
Dallas Seavey out of Ophir at 02:21; Brent Sass in at 00:58, Nicholas Petit at 01:16.