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WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:48 PM Mar 2016

Washington Post-Univision Poll: HRC up 68-21 among hispanic voters in Florida

Clinton holds a lopsided 72 to 16 percent lead among nonwhite Democrats in Florida, including a 68 to 21 percent lead among Hispanic voters, who were oversampled in the survey and weighted back to their appropriate share of the electorate. Among whites, Clinton leads by a smaller, though still substantial, 22 percentage points.

Overall Clinton leads Sanders (Vt.) 64 to 26 percent among likely Democratic primary voters in the state, buoyed by the state’s older electorate who trust her to handle a range of issues.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clinton-leads-sanders-by-more-than-2-to-1-in-florida-post-univision-poll-finds/2016/03/09/d48412d0-e56f-11e5-b0fd-073d5930a7b7_story.html?postshare=3961457540881732&tid=ss_tw

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Buzz Clik

(38,437 posts)
8. Yeah, the MI poll was out to lunch. BUT, the problem with that poll...
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 03:35 PM
Mar 2016

... was the open primary. With Hillary supposedly having a huge lead, some HRC supporters may have voted "not Trump" on the GOP side, and some Republicans may have crossed over to disrupt on the Dem side. Who knows for sure...

But I agree -- not feeling real secure about these polls. Once bitten...

MineralMan

(146,192 posts)
9. They're probably rethinking their polling algorithms right now.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 03:40 PM
Mar 2016

We're seeing people voting in these primary contests who have not done so in the past, I think.

 

Buzz Clik

(38,437 posts)
2. Being a closed primary, the result will be easier to predict.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:53 PM
Mar 2016

She is likely to get 20-30 delegate advantage in Florida.

unc70

(6,095 posts)
11. Rapid increase in Latino community
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 04:30 PM
Mar 2016

It is no longer small!

The Latino population in NC is roughly one million, nearly 60% natural born, significant percentage naturalized. 8-10% of total population, maybe 8% of voters given a big registration push. Census estimates. (There are sites claiming exaggerated "illegal immigrants" percentages.)

Various polls. Most recent poll just out from WRAL. I posted elsewhere. 8% of poll was Hispanic. Don't know what turnout will look like.

BTW Sanders is polling slightly over 25% among AA.

Tarheel_Dem

(31,207 posts)
13. Is this the WRAL poll where Hillary leads him by +23 points?
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 05:38 PM
Mar 2016



In a Democratic Primary for President today, Hillary Clinton defeats Bernie Sanders 57% to 34%. Sanders' support is young; he leads Clinton nearly 2:1 among those 18 to 34. But among seniors, Clinton buries Sanders by nearly 4:1. Clinton leads by 8 points among white Democrats, and leads by 54 points among black Democrats. Momentum is with Clinton. During the first half of the field period, Clinton led Sanders by 12. During the 2nd half of the field period, Clinton led Sanders by 46 points. About 1/6th of the interviews for this survey were completed after the 03/06/16 CNN Democratic Presidential Debate in Flint MI.


http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=096c4982-8b11-468f-915e-5132f3ddc2e3

Hillary holds a 54 point surplus among AA's, who tend to vote more often & in greater numbers than Hispanics, will be enough to overcome her leads with the groups where she holds a 4:1 advantage. She'll be powered to victory by the same groups that handed her overwhelming wins in SC & MS. I don't expect a 40 point victory, but it will be double digits.

Tarheel_Dem

(31,207 posts)
15. I agree with you. I always felt it would be closer than the polls were saying, but I certainly....
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 05:54 PM
Mar 2016

expected to win that one. We just have to redouble our efforts going forward. Donating, phone banking, etc. I'm much more confident that the numbers here in NC are much closer to the reality on the ground.

As for the poster making assertions about Latino voters, I can't seem to find his numbers anywhere else. But, even if they're true, Hillary's dominance with all the other groups portends badly for BS in NC.

unc70

(6,095 posts)
16. That is the WRAL poll
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 05:58 PM
Mar 2016

I was one of those polled. I think Clinton has a solid lead, but nothing like that claimed for the second half of the polling.

I think there might be a problem with last day of their polling, not just with the Sanders/Clinton part. Some of the other items polled seem "off" also. I don't know what was going on since I don't have the full data.

It looks like what can happen when you are sampling at the end to get enough samples in each of the required sub groups. It can also happen with certain types of oversampling.

Almost anything can taint a survey. Sampling during the Duke-Carolina game or the Downton Abbey finale.

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