STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 20, 2016

Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 1,614, Sanders 856 (Clinton +758).
Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,172, Sanders 846 (Clinton +326).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,172/1,050 (+122), Sanders 846/968 (-122).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 42.0% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

March 15 (538): Clinton 397, Sanders 294 (Clinton +103).
Versus Targets: Clinton 379/365 (+32), Sanders 294/326 (-32).


Next Primary: March 22

Arizona, Idaho, Utah: 131 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 74, Clinton 57.



Comments
The Bernie campaign has been making noises about not conceding at all, about trying to sway superdelegates to his side right up until the roll call vote at the convention. Don't believe it. By not conceding, he gains nothing; no superdelegate will switch their vote to someone who has not gained a majority of pledged delegates. Also, by not conceding, he loses any leverage he has over the Party in exchange for putting up a united front.

The only real reason to not concede would be spite. Bernie Sanders is many things, but I don't believe he's spiteful.

At least I hope not.


How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
Why yes, I did have a hand in the puppet show!