STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 22, 2016

Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 1,630, Sanders 870 (Clinton +760).
Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,176, Sanders 855 (Clinton +321).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,176/1,056½ (+119½), Sanders 855/974½ (-119½).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 42.1% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

March 15 (538): Clinton 397, Sanders 294 (Clinton +103).
Versus Targets: Clinton 379/365 (+32), Sanders 294/326 (-32).
Democrats Abroad: Sanders 9, Clinton 4 (Sanders +5). (not yet reflected in totals)
Versus Targets: Sanders 9/6½ (+2½), Clinton 4/6½ (-2½).


Next Primary: TODAY

Arizona, Idaho, Utah: 131 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 74, Clinton 57.


Comments
Happy Arizona Day! (The media is calling it Western Tuesday, but to hell with that, I'm calling it Arizona Day.)

Bernie is currently 1,171 delegates shy of the nomination. He needs 58.0% of all remaining pledged delegates to win.

A total of 131 delegates are up for grabs from today's three states. Demographically, Bernie is expected to win 74 of them, or 56.5%. If he does this, he will gain 17 delegates on Hillary, and will need 58.1% of all remaining delegates in order to win the nomination. So his job actually gets harder if he performs as per his demographic advantage.

If he outperforms expectations, and wins, let's say, 85 delegates (or 64.9%), he will gain 39 delegates on Hillary, and will need only 57.5% of all remaining pledged delegates to win.

On the other hand, if he ties with Hillary -- let's say he wins 66 to Hillary's 65 -- then obviously he gains only one delegate on Hillary, and will need 58.5% of all remaining pledged delegates to win.

Either way, after today the pool of contests, which started with 50 states and 7 territories (including Democrats Abroad) will be down to 21 states and 4 territories.


How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
If you Russia round and Ukraine your neck, don't Crimea river!