Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumNate Silver on Math
Sanderss Tough Math ~There are 131 pledged delegates at stake tonight for Democrats. Its going to be hard for Sanders to win a majority of those given that Arizona has most of the delegates and Clinton is winning big there, but its not impossible if he crushes it in Utah and Idaho. So lets say he almost does it. Clinton gets 66 delegates on the night and Sanders gets 65.
That would get Sanders up to 920 pledged delegates, while Clinton would have 1,242, with 1,889 pledged delegates still outstanding. Skipping a little bit of math, but Sanders would need 59 percent of the remaining total to tie Clinton in pledged delegates. Thats really difficult to do; it would be equivalent to beating Clinton by 18 percentage points the rest of the way out. Merely breaking even in delegates isnt nowhere near enough for Sanders at this point.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-22-primaries-arizona-utah-presidential-election-2016/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/
Her Sister
(6,444 posts)We know that Clinton does best in larger, more diverse states. We know that Sanders does best in smaller, less diverse states. That's a pattern, and I see no reason to believe that pattern will get flipped upside down. Given that and Clinton's 300+ delegate lead, it's virtually impossible for Sanders to win the nomination.
Request after request has been made for someone to use one of the delegate calculators to demonstrate a realistic path to 2026 for Sanders. As far as I know, those requests have never been answered. There's a reason for that.
Plagiarizing (again) this comment from Garrett78 (LOL!!) http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511547639#post31
Thought t'was perfect and succinct!
Kaleva
(36,291 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Treant
(1,968 posts)and I didn't answer because I thought the way it was set up was far too rosy for Bernie.
Kaleva
(36,291 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Kaleva
(36,291 posts)OP's post:
"I've been ordered to delete this discussion
by a mod or I will be blocked from the group.
I guess we can't discuss delegate math here..."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1280&pid=155764
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... have done would be to lock it, but not delete it. As it turns out, the threat to "self-delete or be banned" was an empty promise. Bernbabe deleted the post as requested, and was BANNED ANYWAY.
It's absolutely hysterical that you got banned for making a "kick" post. No text, just "kicked".
They're getting a bit touchy over there, aren't they?
Kaleva
(36,291 posts)I'm not upset for being banned as I'm not a Bernie supporter and they can run their group as they see fit. And your right about Bernbabe should not have deleted his post as it was an interesting question which could have been cross posted in GDP if no one in the Bernie group wanted to answer it there.
LiberalFighter
(50,836 posts)It was only stating information about the Arizona fiasco. Beam Me Up Scotty blocked me.
liberal N proud
(60,334 posts)stonecutter357
(12,694 posts)BlueMTexpat
(15,366 posts)night's results and final delegate totals.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-22-primaries-arizona-utah-presidential-election-2016/
Not all the news is good for Sanders, however. He was expected to win more delegates on the evening based on our demographic targets and more importantly, hes far enough behind Clinton that he needs to not just meet but blow out his delegate targets the rest of the way to have a shot at eventually catching Clinton. Alaska, Hawaii and Washington will vote on Saturday, states where we expect Sanders to perform well.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)be from Sanders to Hillary.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,228 posts)This is the part the BS'ers stubbornly refuse to accept. He needs blowouts everywhere from now on.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)We in the Northeast are ready to give Hillary the nod.
Wisconsin may go against him too.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,228 posts)Codeine
(25,586 posts)Dude will not shut up!