Latin America

nitpicker

(7,153 posts) Fri Oct 23, 2015, 05:27 AM Oct 2015

Hurricane Patricia now Category 5 (potentially record-breaking)

From NWS:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

...PATRICIA...
...THE STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD...
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER
TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 105.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...200 MPH...325 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...880 MB...25.99 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Patricia was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 105.5 West. Patricia
is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected later this morning, followed by a turn
toward the north-northeast this afternoon. On the forecast track,
the core of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning
area this afternoon or evening.

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 200 mph (325
km/h) with higher gusts. Patricia is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are possible today, but Patricia is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane through landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 880 mb (25.99 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the
hurricane warning area this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are beginning to spread across portions of the warning area.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane
watch area later today.

RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima,
MIchoacan and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions
of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

4 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Hurricane Patricia now Category 5 (potentially record-breaking) (Original Post) nitpicker Oct 2015 OP

Per discussion, Patricia is record-breaking nitpicker Oct 2015 #1

Really hope there has been enough time for the people to get their loved ones and animals Judi Lynn Oct 2015 #2

Update: Thousands evacuated as record-breaking Hurricane Patricia slams into Mexico Judi Lynn Oct 2015 #3

Astonishing meteorological images of Hurricane Patricia Judi Lynn Oct 2015 #4

nitpicker

(7,153 posts)

1. Per discussion, Patricia is record-breaking

Reply to nitpicker (Original post)

Fri Oct 23, 2015, 05:33 AM

Oct 2015

HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

Data from three center fixes by the Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the intensity, based on a blend of 700 mb-flight level and
SFMR-observed surface winds, is near 175 kt. This makes Patricia
the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center's
area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the
eastern North Pacific basins. The minimum central pressure
estimated from the aircraft data, 880 mb, is the lowest ever for
our AOR. It seems incredible that even more strengthening could
occur before landfall later today, but recent microwave imagery
shows hints of a concentric eyewall developing. If the trend
toward an eyewall replacement continues, it would cause the
intensity to at least level off later today. The official forecast
shows only a little more strengthening before landfall. Given the
very mountainous terrain that Patricia should encounter after
landfall, the cyclone should weaken even faster over land than
predicted by the normal inland decay rate.

Recent center fixes show that the hurricane is gradually turning
toward the right, and the initial motion estimate is 340/10 kt. The
track forecast scenario remains about the same. Patricia should
continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level
anticyclone today and turn north-northeastward ahead of a trough to
the northwest tonight and Saturday. The official track forecast is
somewhat slower than the latest model consensus and lies between
the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend. Based on the predicted
upper-level winds, this system should be non-tropical in nature.
However this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of
moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally
heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
coastal area within the next few days. Refer to statements from
local National Weather Service forecast offices for details.

We would like to acknowledge deeply the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
for their observations establishing Patricia as a record-breaking
hurricane. Clearly, without their data, we would never have known
just how strong a tropical cyclone it was.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening.
Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning
area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect the area.
Residents in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning
area should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be
catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes
landfall.

2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 17.0N 105.5W 175 KT 200 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 18.8N 105.4W 180 KT 205 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 21.7N 104.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 24.5N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Judi Lynn

(160,472 posts)

2. Really hope there has been enough time for the people to get their loved ones and animals

Reply to nitpicker (Original post)

Fri Oct 23, 2015, 05:44 PM

Oct 2015

out of harm's way. This is one incredible storm, they must be terrified. Who wouldn't be?

Here's a late story:

Catastrophic Landfall Expected Soon in Mexico; Patricia Becomes Strongest Hurricane Ever Recorded

Published Oct 23 2015 05:02 PM EDT

A potentially catastrophic landfall is expected Friday evening as a very powerful and dangerous Hurricane Patricia moves towards Mexico's Pacific coast. Hurricane Patricia became the most powerful tropical cyclone ever measured in the Western Hemisphere on Friday morning as its maximum sustained winds reached an unprecedented 200 mph (320 kph).

The hurricane is forecast to make landfall in the Mexican state of Jalisco Friday evening as a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane capable of causing widespread destruction. Residents and authorities in Mexico are rushing to prepare for what will likely be the strongest hurricane to ever make landfall on that country's Pacific coastline.

At 4 p.m. CDT, the eye of Hurricane Patricia was about 60 miles (135 kilometers) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico with 190 mph sustained winds, and was moving north-northeast at 14 mph (23 kph).

In addition to its unprecedented 200-mph (320-kph) sustained winds earlier Friday, Hurricane Patricia now holds the record for lowest pressure in any hurricane on record. With a minimum central pressure of 880 millibars (25.99 inches of mercury) at the 4 a.m. CDT advisory, Patricia broke the record of 882 millibars set by Wilma almost exactly 10 years ago. At the 1 p.m. CDT advisory the minimum central pressure was lowered to 879 millibars (25.96 inches of mercury).

More:
http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-patricia-mexico-coast

(Cuba will be there to lend medical assistance: They've had a lot of experience over the years, and this is their really strong suit.)

Judi Lynn

(160,472 posts)

3. Update: Thousands evacuated as record-breaking Hurricane Patricia slams into Mexico

Reply to nitpicker (Original post)

Fri Oct 23, 2015, 10:04 PM

Oct 2015

Thousands evacuated as record-breaking Hurricane Patricia slams into Mexico
Agence France-Presse
23 Oct 2015 at 21:35

The strongest hurricane ever recorded crashed into Mexico’s Pacific coast on Friday, ratcheting up fears that super-storm Patricia will unleash death and destruction with its powerful winds and driving rain.

Authorities relocated coastal residents, closed ports and schools in several states and evacuated tourists from beach hotels before the category five monster hurricane made landfall in the western state of Jalisco.People boarded up windows and bought water and food supplies as they hunkered down for the storm and urgently sought shelter.

The hurricane made landfall in the town of Emiliano Zapata, about 95 kilometers (60 miles) west of the major port of Manzanillo, National Water Commission director Roberto Ramirez told Milenio television.

The US National Hurricane Center said Patricia weakened marginally at landfall, but was still packing maximum winds of 270 kilometers per hour.

More:
http://www.rawstory.com/2015/10/thousands-evacuated-as-record-breaking-hurricane-patricia-slams-into-mexico/

Judi Lynn

(160,472 posts)

4. Astonishing meteorological images of Hurricane Patricia

Reply to nitpicker (Original post)

Fri Oct 23, 2015, 11:03 PM

Oct 2015

Astonishing meteorological images of Hurricane Patricia
Matt Levin
Updated 7:59 pm, Friday, October 23, 2015

Hurricane Patricia looks staggering from above.

The Category 5 storm made landfall in Mexico on Friday night. Satellite and aerial images of the storm show why the disturbance is “potentially catastrophic.”

Several million people, including tens of thousands of U.S. citizens, live in the Pacific coastal areas of Mexico where Patricia is expected to have its heaviest impact.

The historic storm has weakened slightly on its approach – with sustained winds falling from 200 mph to 190 mph – but the country is preparing for the worst. The Hurricane Patricia system will also bring lots of rain to both Mexico and east Texas throughout the weekend.

http://www.chron.com/news/nation-world/mexico-latin/article/12-images-that-show-why-Hurricane-Patricia-6587465.php#photo-8838753

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