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unhappycamper

(60,364 posts)
Mon Jun 30, 2014, 08:16 AM Jun 2014

Bill Virgin: Maybe we should lower our expectations for economic recovery

http://www.thenewstribune.com/2014/06/29/3266959/maybe-we-should-lower-our-expectations.html?sp=/99/261/

Bill Virgin: Maybe we should lower our expectations for economic recovery
By BILL VIRGIN
June 29, 2014 Updated 21 hours ago

For the first three years after reaching the bottom of the Great Recession’s pit, which for our purposes we’ll date as late 2008-early 2009, we scanned the economic horizon in the expectation – or maybe it was just wishful thinking – of a recovery, only to report back in disappointment when one failed to materialize.

Once we realized that we were in fact in the midst of a recovery, as tepid and lethargic as it was, we shifted to scanning the economic horizon in the expectation, or maybe it’s the fear, that the next recession is commencing.

As we take our traditional six-month scan of our economic condition, there’s no shortage of indicators to suggest that pessimism is justified. The stock market’s upward run is well past the average shelf-expiration date for such expansions, and the source of such bullishness has long seemed suspect anyway, given the underlying economy’s sluggish performance.

Energy prices are rising. So are food prices. So are taxes, to judge by the number of governmental entities that have enacted or proposed such hikes. Incomes, however, are not going up at a rate to accommodate the increased demands on paychecks. Some industries, such as retailing, still labor under the twin burdens of the recession and massive permanent restructuring and consolidation courtesy of the Internet.
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merrily

(45,251 posts)
4. If you are implying that I am one of those
Wed Jul 2, 2014, 04:52 AM
Jul 2014

"some people" you misunderstood my prior post, bless your heart.

If you not implying that, my sincerest apologies for misunderstanding your reply, bless my own heart.

sendero

(28,552 posts)
5. Well really...
Wed Jul 2, 2014, 07:28 AM
Jul 2014

... I didn't find your first post very clear, perhaps that is my fault. I mistook your post to be aligning yourself with the sadly too many here who believe in the "recovery" myth.

Calling this a "recovery" is a complete lie, it is not a recovery and there is not likely to be a recovery any time soon. So, this is the new normal.

Rather than continue with the bless your heart salutation, I will instead wish you a good day

merrily

(45,251 posts)
6. Ah, I was right. You did misunderstand my post.
Wed Jul 2, 2014, 07:43 AM
Jul 2014

First, it is 100% accurate to post that, in 2008, people started telling us, in effect, that "Main Street is SOL forever."


I am not at all sure how you got from that post any statement at all about what I think about the alleged recovery.

In any event, the point of "bless their hearts" in my original post was that, from the beginning, they wanted us to get enured to the idea of being SOL, rather than leave us expecting economic justice of any kind.

However you may have misunderstood my original post in this subthread, it snarked at no DUer, including you and I have no record of either snarking without having been snarked to first or any record of praising the alleged recovery. (Quite the opposite on both counts, in fact, though facts may not matter.)

In all, I see no reason why any DUer, including you, found it necessary to post a snarky reply to my post. And, while I apologized to you in advance, just in case I had misunderstood your reply as the insult to me you intended it to be, you didn't apologize at all, bless your heart.

 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
2. Maybe we should kick the Austerians out on their lard butts and institute the New Deal. 2.0
Mon Jun 30, 2014, 08:52 AM
Jun 2014

Going the FDR route, and beyond.


Jail the banksters! FRSP for the 1% Elitists!

Bill USA

(6,436 posts)
7. "Normal"? No fucking way. The GOP have worked tirelessly to obstruct and sabotage everything Obama
Thu Jul 3, 2014, 07:28 PM
Jul 2014

... and the Dems have tried to do to rebuild the economy from the GOP Trickle Down - Deregulation disaster.


Here's a good web-page which offers abundant documentation of the multiplicity of filibusters and sabotaged legislation (like putting asinine, counter-productive amendments in them which they know nobody who wants to help America would stand for - thus killing legislation without using the filibuster).

http://exposingreligionblog.tumblr.com/post/34565609413

also read: Natural Born Job Killers: Republicans Obstruct over 4.2 Million Jobs


The only failure in Republican attempts to totally destroy the economy was their inability to obstruct the President’s stimulus the Congressional Budget Office and several independent agencies claim created over 3 million jobs. However, they have made up for that success by refusing to consider President Obama’s American Jobs Act proposed over a year-and-a-half ago, and coupled with severe austerity measures at the state and local level, they have been successful maintaining unemployment at over 8% instead of less-than 6% if they were not intent on obstruction and economic devastation.




[font color="red"]There is no doubt the Republicans know what works to improve hiring and economic growth because every Republican administration has invested in hiring more public employees during a recession, and they always depended on federal funding to increase the workforce at the federal and state level, and not giving more tax breaks to their imaginary “job creators” they claim leads to full employment[/font]. The GOP austerity measures were not limited to blocking federal money to help states hire and retain employees, because states with Republican governors and legislatures made drastic cuts in the public sector workforce and many turned down federal aid to demonstrate their contempt for their residents, and the federal government. In California, for example, a Republican in Congress, Jeff Denham, is attempting to block implementation of a much needed high-speed rail project that will create over a million jobs as the largest earth-moving project in the state’s history, and sustain hundreds-of-thousands more jobs for maintenance and operation in cities up and down the state. His argument is that the government cannot afford the cost and the money is better spent creating jobs…with more tax cuts for “job creators.”


The austerity measures Republicans are implementing have never worked during a recession and despite the abject failure of every European country that enacted austerity, they are hell-bent on following the countries that have no growth and soaring unemployment. Even the presumptive Republican presidential candidate, Willard Romney, admitted that austerity during a recession is disastrous, and yet Republicans have killed over 600,000 public sector jobs that prevented 2.3 million downstream jobs from being created. Coupled with Republican obstruction of the President’s job plan in January 2011, they have effectively prevented 4.2 million Americans from finding good, living wage jobs, or enough to bring the unemployment rate down to 5.5% in a little over a year. Instead of cutting 600,000 teaching, police, firefighter and other public jobs, if states had increased those lost jobs by one-half, the unemployment rate would be under 5% and tax revenue would be up, the deficit would be reduced, and the economy would be humming along.

Republicans are now claiming that letting the Bush era tax cuts for the rich expire will kill more jobs, but the facts, and history, do not bear out their fallacious assertions. During the Clinton Administration, the wealthy paid 3% more in taxes and the economy added 22-million jobs, wages increased, and businesses boomed. In fact, during the Eisenhower Administration, the wealthy paid nearly 90% in taxes during the time when hundreds of thousands of soldiers returned from World War II, and the infusion of cash created the nation’s highway system, a booming economy, and the great middle class. The GOP knows how to create jobs, but they have no interest in America’s economy, or its people and they must relish the thought of killing jobs and retarding economic growth as they planned in 2009, and will continue throughout 2012.
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and Natural Born Job Killers: Republicans Are Set to Kill 1 Million More Jobs in 2014


During eight years of the Bush administration, Republicans managed to squander a substantial budget surplus, wage two unnecessary and unfunded wars at a cost of $6 trillion over the next generation, and drove the country into a Great Recession. Along the way they destroyed Americans retirement savings, the housing industry, and successfully killed tens of millions of Americans’ jobs. For two short years after the Republican economic catastrophe ended, President Obama saved the economy, staunched job losses with a meager stimulus, and created millions of jobs and yet, by 2011 Republicans went against conventional economic wisdom and embarked on a job-killing austerity spree under the guise of reducing long term deficit they blew up during the Bush years. For the past three years, besides attacking women’s rights, Republicans have made killing jobs their raison d’être and according to a new report, their economic insanity will cost the nation immense long term economic damage.

~~
~~

Likely, the unemployment rate increase is a result of the Republicans’ precious sequestration cuts that were predicted to kill about a million jobs over the next fiscal year, and Americans should brace themselves for more job losses due to, at the very least, the food stamp cuts that began on November first. There will certainly be more jobs lost due to House Republicans’ intention to cut food stamp spending by ten-fold, or more, according to Paul Ryan and Republican budget negotiations founded on austerity madness.

When Republicans swept into the House in 2011, they promised their highest priority was job creation, but they started the 112th session with budget cuts that killed over a million jobs causing Speaker John Boehner to say “so be it.” Boehner’s cavalier attitude about killing jobs was a portent of the next three years of Republican austerity insanity, and according to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) report, “the evidence is overwhelming that by failing to respond effectively to mass unemployment, by not even making unemployment a major policy priority, austerity has done immense long-term damage to America’s economy” that Republicans claim is doomed unless they enact more job killing austerity over the next decade.

The consensus at the International Monetary Fund research conference was that by not focusing on unemployment, the Republicans’ austerity has already reduced America’s economic potential by around 7% which means America is poorer by more than $1 trillion a year. Unfortunately for the American people and the nation’s economy, the damage is not just for one year, it is long-term damage of $1 trillion a year for multiple years. Republicans have screamed that the long-term deficit poses an existential threat to America as a reason to slash domestic spending, and it is the primary reason absolutely nothing has been done about the unemployment epidemic killing the economy and Americans’ financial security.
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oh , and here's a good one from the WallStreet Journal, May 2012, that pointed out the that the unemployment rate would have been a full 1% point LOWER had it not been for cuts to Government programs: (these cuts were demanded by the GOP as the price for them not causing a default on the U.S. debt (Summer 2011) or closing down the Government (Spring 2011) -
Unemployment Rate Without Government Cuts: 7.1% - WSJ May 2012
One reason the unemployment rate may have remained persistently high: The sharp cuts in state and local government spending in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, and the layoffs those cuts wrought.

[div style="width:auto;float:right;" class="excerpt"]

The Labor Department’s establishment survey of employers — the jobs count that it bases its payroll figures on — shows that the government has been steadily shedding workers since the crisis struck, with 586,000 fewer jobs than in December 2008. Friday’s employment report showed the cuts continued in April, with 15,000 government jobs lost.

But the survey of households that the unemployment rate is based on suggests the government job cuts have been much, much worse.

In April the household survey showed that that there were 442,000 fewer people working in government than in March. The household survey has a much smaller sample size than the establishment survey, and so is prone to volatility, but the magnitude of the drop is striking: It marks the largest decline on both an absolute and a percentage basis on record going back to 1948. Moreover, the household survey has consistently showed bigger drops in government employment than the establishment survey has.
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Of course, it appears events may have overtaken Mr. Virgin: Payroll employment increases by 288,000 in June; unemployment rate declines to 6.1%

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